In trying to unspin the rhetoric, I decided to do some math. Here is what I found:
(source: personal calculations)
Under this scenario, Obama wins every remaining primary and takes two times the number of delegates as Clinton and the super delegates play no role. The result is that nobody has enough delegates to win the nomination. Under a scenario where Obama wins handily (it is doubtful Obama will win this many delegates in the primaries), the super delegates play the deciding role. The bottom line: super delegates will determine this nomination.
Let's consider a likely scenario:
(source: personal calculations).
Under this scenario: (1) Obama wins every remaining primary and takes (5/8) of the delegates in each remaining state. (2) Currently committed super delegates do not change. (3) Uncommitted super delegates break (5/8) for Obama.
The result: Obama wins.
Consider the following scenario:
In this scenario: (1) the delegates and super delegates are split 50/50 (2) except, the won delegates from PA, TX, and OH go 70/30 for Clinton over Omaba (an unbelievable margin, not supported by polls).
The result, Hillary barely wins.
The bottom line is that, unless something remarkable happens, Barack Obama will win the nomination. We just cannot rationally expect Hillary to win PA, TX, and OH by such wide margins while Obama will only break-even in other states. Keep this in mind when you hear Hillary and her surrogates speaking about how she will "wrap up" the nomination in June (source).
2 comments:
Is the claim by Clinton that she will "wrap up" the nomination in June a way of preparing for a loss in the coming primaries? That is, it would allow her to minimize the losses, since "we'd been expecting them."
There is no doubt in my mind that the Clinton camp expects to lose tomorrow's primaries (evidence: Clinton's schedule, aids comments, and Clinton's 'plan for victory'--win TX, PA, and OH). The Clinton camp is putting all its eggs on the TX and OH primaries and then bouncing out of these to the PA primary.
The irony: this is the same type of strategy that Rudy employed ("just wait, we'll win in Florida and bounce into the nomination").
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