Wednesday, June 4, 2008

The Obama's Fist Pound

This picture says it all...


"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama bumps fists with his wife Michelle before his speech at his South Dakota and Montana presidential primary election night rally in St. Paul, Minnesota June 3, 2008. (Eric Miller/Reuters)" (source)

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Obama and the Foreign Press

It is 10:55pm EST and I'm watching Senator Obama shake hands with people after his speech live on MSNBC. Nonetheless, look at the news papers from the foreign press. They have already put Senator Obama on the front page of their website.













Bobby Jindal VP Stump Speech Tryout

Did you see Bobby Jindal "happen" to introduce Senator McCain and give a 3 minute stump speech supporting McCain on prime time TV at about 8:30pm EST? I have to suspect that Senator McCain's campaign is trying to feel out Jindal's political prowess on a national scale.

I give the McCain credit for capitalizing on a large national prime time TV audience that is certainly filled with democrats wanting to watch Senator Obama's speech.

Sunday, June 1, 2008

Fox and NBC/MSNBC in War

I was watching the O'Reilly factor on May 29, 2008 and listened to Bill O'Reilly rant on MSNBC/NBC and its supposedly unfair and biased coverage favoring Senator Obama. Although O'Reilly is definitely not the gold standard for fair journalism, I post about this because it is a new dimension of today's media--fighting about fairness and bias within the media. No longer is it political pundits complaining about media coverage, now the media personalities themselves analyze and criticize other networks. View O'Reilly's complaint here (short version) and here (longer version).


View more here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Senator Obama: When will you finally visit Iraq?

I recently saw the following PAC ad attacking Senator Obama about his Iraq policy and failure to visit Iraq (view here at YouTube). This ad dovetails with Senator McCain's attacks on Senator Obama for his failure to visit Iraq and acknowledge the progress made.

Why This Ad is Effective
  • It does not feel like a typical attack ad.
    • Between the music and soft voice, the ad does not engender the feelings of a typical attack ad with dark colors, deep music, and slashing commentary.
  • It inspires/plays on patriotism.
  • It uses Senator Obama's own words against him.
    • The subtle reasoning is that if Senator Obama will meet "one-on-one unconditionally" with Iran, why won't he meet under similar circumstances with American troops in Iraq.
  • It uses a veteran.
    • This ads credibility and makes it more difficult to attack the source of the ad.
  • It plays on the perception of Senator Obama's foreign policy weakness.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

One of the Best Speeches of This Campaign

I recently re-watched Barack Obama's speech in Iowa in which he essentially celebrated his primary nomination by thanking the people who made his campaign possible--the voters of Iowa who catapulted him to a national candidacy that could overcome the inevitable.

The speech is available here on YouTube and here as a transcript.

To get an idea of the enthusiasm and the passion of the crowd and of Senator Obama, begin watching at 17 minutes.

Why This Speech is Effective
  • Senator Obama thanked the people who made his candidacy possible
    • It is far too rare for politicians to go back to their base and thank the people who made their candidacy possible. Senator Obama was extremely smart to do this.
  • Senator Obama is subtly reminding the country that he is popular in "white America"
    • By holding an event in a largely white state that he won, he is trying to counter the idea that he cannot win white votes
  • Senator Obama is extremely gracious to Senator Clinton
  • Senator Obama stays on message
    • Emphasis on hope and change
    • Subtle attacks against John McCain, who is linked to George Bush

My final comment is that I struggle to imagine how Senator McCain can win in the fall with an orator like this as an opponent and a crowd that is this excited. (I still think it is possible since democrats seem to specialize in loosing elections).

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Democratic Establishment Turns on Clinton

As I've been monitoring the news commentaries, I've noticed how the democratic party and its news outlets (MSNBC, New York Times, Daily Kos, Huffington Post) have turned against Senator Clinton.

In the past few days, the following storied have been published:
  • Keith Olberman absolutely exploded in his "special comments" against Senator Clinton last night (May 23, 2008). (see here)
  • Daily Kos (here)
  • New York Times (here)
  • MSNBC (Florida coverage)
  • MSNBC (Chris Matthews almost cries over thought of Senator Obama loosing; here)


Notice the following comments that the Clinton campaign/etc. has made about the biased news coverage:
  • Terry McAuliffe Says Chris Matthews is pro-Obama (here; this is an absolutely blistering on-air critique of Chris Matthews--wait until the end of the interview for the comments)
  • Joe Scarborough on MSNBC news bias (here)
  • About Keith Olberman (here)
  • Even CNN noted it (here)
  • Fox News slams MSNBC (here)
  • As early as May 2007, Fox attacks MSNBC (here)
  • Hillary, Bill, and Lanny Davis on Fox (here)
  • Terry Mcauliffe on MSNBC (here)
  • Terry Mcauliffe on Fox News congratulating the network (here)
  • Terry McAuliffe slams NYT (here)

Friday, May 23, 2008

Bobby Jindal: A Bright Future for the Republican Party

I've spent quite a bit of time tonight looking at Bobby Jindal's history (if you don't know much about him see wikipedia here).

I looked at a number of his 2007 gubernatorial campaign ads and the one that stood out to me was War on Corruption. This ad epitomized the essence of his candidacy and shared many similarities to Senator Obama's.
Here is Why I Think Jindal Has Tremendous Potential:

  • He is Youthful
    • Jindal has the aura of someone with youth and vigor--something that people like John McCain lack.
  • He is Not a WASP
    • This seems to be a hot commodity in American politics (see all the energy about Senator Obama's and Clinton's candidacy--Clinton is a WASP, but not a man).
  • He Inspires
    • His message of a new beginning for Louisiana carried the day. His speeches are inspiring (although not quite at the level of Senator Obama). Moreover, unlike Senator Obama, Jindal is better able to connect to working class voters.
  • He Endured Scathing Political Attack Ads
    • If you think you've seen it all in the form of attack ads, see this. I watched a lot of nasty attack ads for the Louisiana governor's race, but this one takes the cake. I believe that Jindal's ability to take this type of rough and tumble attack and still win is a strong asset and a good predictor of his ability to weather attacks.
  • He Knows His Policy
    • I watched Governor Jindal about 3 weeks ago at the DC Press club on CSPAN taking questions from guests and Jindal spoke with a clear knowledge of the issues.

Republican VP Nominee Analysis

With John McCain effectively holding interviews for the VP spot this weekend, I thought I would size up the republican VP selection process and analyze the possible candidates (source). This is extremely speculative and subjective, but I thought I would post anyway.

Mitt Romney
Pros:
  • Business Experience
    • Mitt Romney conveys the image of someone who is a business leader. This helped him win the Michigan primary. His experience at Bain Capital and the Sault Lake Olympics are important stories to tell.
    • In a year where the economy is a big issue, this is an important talking point for the McCain campaign.
  • Money
    • With republicans having trouble raising money, Mitt Romney's personal fortune (estimated to be about $250 million) and his ability to raise money in the business community is a strong asset.
  • Energetic Campaigner
    • Mitt Romney campaigned with energy and vigor, something that Fred Thompson and others lacked.
  • Great Debater
    • Romney and Mike Huckabee were the best debtors on the republican side.
  • Energized Base
    • Fiscal conservatives and Mormons will show up to vote for Romney.
  • Good Attacker
    • Romney has appeared on television on behalf of the McCain campaign a number of times since dropping out of the race and has launched scathing and effective attacks against Senator Obama. This is an important role for the VP and McCain needs someone comfortable attacking.

Cons:
  • Liberal Social Record
    • This is a big problem for social conservatives, who are already leery of John McCain and his "agents of intolerance" view of some evangelicals.
  • Not Liked by Social Conservatives
    • This is interconnected to the above issue.
  • Will Not Add States to Electoral College
    • Romney will be unlikely to deliver any states that John McCain could not have won without him.


Bobby Jindal
Pros:
  • Young
    • Jindal is 36 years of age and brings lots of vigor to the campaign
  • Not A WASP
    • Jindal converted from Hinduism to Catholicism as a teenager. He is the son of Indian immigrants.
  • Socially Conservative
    • Jindal is a strong social conservative who won lots of Catholics in Louisiana.

Cons:
  • Inexperienced
    • Americans may be hesitant to accept the possibility of a 36 year old man with 2 years as Governor of Louisiana and 2 years before that as a U.S. Representative.
  • Not Presidential Looking
    • He does not have the aura of a president (yet). (Personally, I think Jindal is one of the brightest future stars of the Republican party).

Mike Huckabee
Pros:
  • Great Debater
    • Huckabee came to prominence as he turned in one great debate performance after another.
  • Great Public Speaker
    • Huckabee often speaks extemporaneously and is extremely effective. I know the woman who managed his campaign in a crucial early state and she told me that he had no real speech writer and gave some important speeches with little in the way of prepared remarks.
  • Connects Well With Rural Voters
    • With Barack Obama having troubles connecting with working class white voters, Mike Huckabee could very well peal some Democrats off. He is extremely effective connecting with these individuals and appearing as the "everyday" candidate.
  • Brings Many Evangelicals
    • Huckabee surged to a national candidate on the backs of evangelicals in Iowa.

Cons:
  • Seen As Fringe Religious Candidate (by Many)
    • Huckabee's strength was his weakness. Many in the media despised his connection with evangelicals and portrayed him as the "preacher" candidate.
  • Despised by Fiscal Conservatives
    • Huckabee raised taxes considerably in Arkansas and was the subject of blistering negative ads by the conservative Club for Growth.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Huge Obama Crowd

Senator Obama recently held a rally in Oregon with a mammoth crowd. An astonishing 75,000 people attended his rally.

From the Washington Post:

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Sen. Barack Obama has seen his share of large crowds over the past 15 months, but his campaign said they have not approached the numbers gathered along the waterfront here right now.

The campaign, citing figures from Duane Bray, battalion chief of Portland Fire & Rescue, estimated that 75,000 people are watching him speak.

The scene suggests this is not an exaggeration. The sea of heads stretches for half a mile along the grassy embankment, while others watch from kayaks and power boats bobbing on the Willamette River. More hug the rails of the steel bridge that stretches across the water and crowds are even watching from jetties on the opposite shore.




(Source: Washington Post blog)



Look at the number of boats that pulled up to listen to Senator Obama.
(From Time.com)

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Timing of Edwards Endorsement

Was it just a coincidence that the Obama's campaign scheduled John Edward's endorsement for 6:30pm on a day when Senator Clinton had interviews with all the major nightly news programs (which show at 6:30pm)? Was it just a coincidence that the Obama campaign scheduled John Edward's endorsement for the day after Hillary Clinton's landslide victory over Senator Obama?

Elections are all about momentum and managing news. Senator Obama's campaign gets an A+ for blunting the momentum of Senator Clinton's landslide victory last night by scheduling an endorsement that will make news and wash out the news of Clinton's landslide victory.

Obama and Local News

Senator Obama's campaign rally was such big news in Grand Rapids that local television stations interrupted their regular programing (7pm hours with Jeopardy, Entertainment Tonight, etc.) to cover the event live with multiple reporters.

(In the above photo, you see the TV screen, which shows Obama speaking and thousands of people outside the arena watching on a big-screen).

Barack Obama in Grand Rapids

Barack Obama came to Grand Rapids, MI today. As someone who is living in the area, I decided I would go and see him. Well, I never expected that the Obama event would be such an astronomically popular event in this conservative bastion.

The rally was scheduled to start at 7pm EST. I showed up moments before 6pm and the doors were already closed and the arena was filled and closed by the fire marshal. Moreover, thousands of people stood outside waiting for the possibility to get into the overflow room. (see below)






As I left the arena disappointed, I called a friend of mine who said he was going to show up early. He made it inside and had a spot toward the front. The catch--he showed up at 2:3opm and the doors opened at 5pm.

Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Obama and White Shirts

I've noticed that Senator Obama (almost) always wears a white shirt. This is quite an interesting observation and I don't know what to make of it. I've selected some photos recently, but I looked back a long way and this trend holds true.



"Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks to host Tim Russert during a live taping of 'Meet the Press' May 4, 2008 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Voters in Indiana and North Carolina go to primary polls May 6. (AJ Mast-Meet the Press/Handout/Reuters)" (view)



"U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) has his cheek touched by 7-month-old Aedyn Buchanan as he visits diners at Stephanie's II homestyle restaurant in Greensboro, North Carolina, May 5, 2008. North Carolina and Indiana will hold their Presidential Primaries on May 6. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 (USA)" (view)






"Presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets workers during a shift change at the Automotive Components Holdings, LLC. in Indianapolis, Monday, May 5, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)



"Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama talks with two voters outside the polling location at Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University in Indianapolis, May 6, 2008. (Brent Smith/Reuters)" (view)

Why Was Bill There???

As soon as I saw Senator Clinton step to the microphone with Bill right behind her, I was shocked. What in the world was the campaign thinking to have Bill stand right behind her for the entire speech looking dead (except for when his name was mentioned)??? Chelsea, yes...Bill, no.



"US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) with daughter Chelsea (L) and husband former President Bill Clinton (C) speaks to supporters at her North Carolina and Indiana primary election night rally in Indianapolis, Indiana, May 6, 2008. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)" (view)





"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton with daughter Chelsea and husband former President Bill Clinton speaks to supporters at her North Carolina and Indiana primary election night rally in Indianapolis, Indiana, May 6, 2008. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)" (view)

Friday, May 2, 2008

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Dreams

Hillary Clinton recently released a new ad (view here). It is entitled "Dreams" and tends to focus on a more personal side of the Senator. Although I think it is prudent for Senator Clinton to enter into this territory, I do not think that this is that great of an ad. Nonetheless, there is an element of persuasion at work.

What Makes This Ad Persuasive
  • It's personal. As Karl Rove points out, part of being elected president is being personal and vulnerable (see Rove's Op-Ed in the WSJ).
  • It appeals to small town voters--the people who are "bitter" toward Senator Obama.
  • It appeals to the American myth--hard work, determination, and becoming what you want to be.
  • It appeals to white middle class voters. There are very few minorities in this ad.
Why This Ad is Not That Great
  • It is narrated too fast. Hillary sounds like she is speeding through. She needs to go slower for impact and retention amongst viewers.
  • She sounds like she is reading from a script.
  • She does not speak with passion like Senator Obama does (and George Bush did [on national security and faith]).

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Determined

Hillary Clinton released a new ad airing in North Carolina entitled Determined (view here).

Why This Ad is Persuasive
  • Features the North Carolina governor, who narrates the entire ad.
    • This ads lots of credibility
  • Focuses on the bread-and-butter issues likely to be most important to North Carolina voters (e.g., economics, jobs, tax cuts, health care, education)
  • Subtly jabs George Bush
    • "tax cuts for the middle class for a change"
  • Plays on Hillary's emerging image as an underdog fighter who will never give up
  • Features blacks, whites, and Latinos
  • Features lots of everyday people (factory workers, people dressed casually)

Clinton's "Everyday" Problem

I found the following video on YouTube (see here).

It shows Clinton having problems using a coffee machine in a gas station store--very embarrassing for a candidate who is putting herself out as the "everyday" candidate. Notice that this video has received about 1 million videos, despite being only a few days old.

Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Trouble

In a new ad from the Clinton campaign (view here), Senator Clinton outlines her economic differences with Senator Obama.


Why This Ad is Effective
  • Clearly contrasts the candidates in an easy to understand way
    • One of the most important parts of effective campaigning is drawing clear contrasts that are easy for the everyday voter to understand. This was one of Karl Rove's specalities. This ad paints in clear and defining strokes the differences between Senators Clinton and Obama.
  • Populist appeal
    • There is a wave of populism in the country today--especially on the Democratic side. Senator Clinton taps into this with her proposal of windfall profit taxes.
  • Repetition
    • Too often, Senator Clinton fails to use repetition to drive home her point. However, she uses "Senator Obama said 'no'" twice to drive home her point.
  • Credibility
    • The ad features news article sourcing to back up its claims.
  • Deadline Pressure
    • "Its time for a president whose ready to take action now"
    • People who are hurting want action now--not later. Hillary appeals to this.

Clinton Creating More "Everyday" Image

Senator Clinton has had a lot of success recently at creating the "everyday" image through creative photo-ops.

Although the entire story and details are available here from the New York Times, let me give you the Cliff Notes version of the photo-op.
  • Senator Clinton rode in the car of an "average Joe" to work. On the way, she stopped at a gas station to help the Joe fill up with gas and make a point of high gas prices.
Here are the images:



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., pulls herself into the passenger side of a pickup truck to commute into work with sheetmetal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view).

Notice how Senator Clinton happened to ride in a big white Ford pick-up truck. The symbolism here is quite important. No foreign cars. No dirty cars. No small "elitist" hybrid cars.


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., left, rides in a pickup truck to commute to work with sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Most people do not have cars driving in front of them taking pictures of them as they drive to work. Also, you may notice the Secret Service SUV behind Clinton--not exactly every day.



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., speaks about gas prices as sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing puts $63 worth of gas into his pickup truck, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, during a campaign event in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Notice how the photo is set up to show the gas prices behind them.

Clinton Creating "Everyday" Image

In a repeat of the lead up to the PA primary, Senator Clinton is going door-to-door to create the "everyday" image.



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., greets a resident as she canvasses for votes along with Mayor Brian Snedecor, right, in Hobart, Ind. Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., meets with residents during a campaign stop in Hobart, Ind., Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Michael McArdle, Pool)" (view)


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., leaves after greeting David Smar of Hobart, Ind., as she canvasses for votes in the neighborhood Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Monday, April 28, 2008

Obama Calls Wright Fair Game

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, Senator Obama made what will become a major mistake as the campaign plays out.

WALLACE: Senator, you say a lot of good stuff. Reverend Wright (INAUDIBLE) are distractions from the real issues. But especially for someone like you, who’s a newcomer to the national scene, people don’t know a lot about, don’t voters have a legitimate interest in who you are and what your values are?

OBAMA: Absolutely ...I don’t think that the issue of Reverend Wright is illegitimate.

What in the world was Senator Obama thinking? He just gave the OK for republicans to smear him with Rev. Wright. He has weakened his ability to make Rev. Wright an "off limits" topic.

Obama and Guilt by Association

I recently found the following ad playing in Mississippi (view here). This is the second ad like this I have found and I suspect there will be more.

Why This Ad Is Effective
  • Deep and scary sounding voice
  • Portrays Obama as culturally and personally out of touch
  • Quotes from news papers to ad credibility

Friday, April 25, 2008

Bill Clinton's Incredible Spin

This video tells it all (view here). Bill Clinton said the Obama campaign played the race card and then the next day claimed he never said it--absolutely stunning spin.

This is yet another one of Bill Clinton's gaffes that are costing Hillary Clinton dearly--especially amongst blacks.

Clinton Campaign Complementing Fox? Wow!

I never thought I would see the Clinton campaign praise Fox News, but I just did. (see clip here). I did not see this live as I was watching CNN, but this is certainly something. Just proves that if you live long enough, anything is possible.

I just discovered that Fox turned this clip into a promo. (view here)

Obama Looking More "Everyday"

I watched video today from the Obama website of Senator Obama campaigning in Kokomo, Indiana (view). I know Kokomo as my grandparents live there and my dad grew up there. Consequently, I've been there numerous times and have a feeling for the town.

The thing that stood out: Senator Obama is trying to appear everyday and appeal to the white working class people.

  • Senator Obama is not wearing a suit coat. He is appearing everyday. Notice as well that his shirt is rolled up a tad.


"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a town hall-style meeting in Kokomo, Ind., Friday, April 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

  • Senator Obama played basket ball with people in Kokomo. With a dad who grew up playing basketball in Kokomo, I can tell you that this is a very personal and deep-rooted way to connect with locals.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives for a '3-on-3 Challenge for Change' basketball game at Maple Crest Elementary School in Kokomo, Ind., Friday, April 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

Thursday, April 24, 2008

McCain and Clinton Not in Mud

In response to Bytwerk's comments, I looked at the search terms associated with Senator Clinton, Senator McCain and President Bush. Clearly, people are not searching for the level of dirt on Senators McCain and Clinton as they are for Senator Obama.




Free Public Advertising

I don't know if you saw Obama's speech Tuesday night, but there was some great public advertising on display. See the screenshot below (from NYTimes).

As you may notice, three guys directly behind Obama on the TV are wearing Ambercrombie & Fitch clothing. Product placement?


Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Guilt By Association With Obama

Barack Obama is now becoming a target of guilt-by-association (not just a recipient). The reception this ad receives will be a telling sign about how effective republicans can smear Obama for the fall. Stay tuned. This is an extremely important bell weather.

Here is the ad (view it on YouTube.com)

Obama Negative Fallout

The fallout from the negative attacks on Senator Obama is beginning to be felt. Notice the following terms that Yahoo suggests when users enter Barack Obama and Obama.


Clinton's Republican Style Victory

As I thought about how Hillary Clinton pulled out her impressive victory last night, I cannot help but conclude that she waged a republican "Karl Rove" style campaign.

  • She attacked Obama on values and culture.
    • E.g., All the attacks over the "bitter" comments and being elitist
  • She used fear of terrorism
    • In her Kitchen ad, she talked about the pressures of the presidency and the fear of terrorism

This is not a good sign for Barack Obama as there will certainly be more of this in the fall.

Clinton Media Coverage

In case you need any more evidence of how difficult of a path lays before Senator Clinton, see the following news stories:

Hillary PA Speech Analysis (A Good Speech)

On the whole, I think that Hillary delivered a good victory speech last night in PA (transcript).

  • She directly addressed the all important super delegates and the question of electability immediately.
    • "It's a long road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania."
  • She used John Edwards populist-fighting language to appeal to and strengthen her core consistency.
    • "I'm in this race to fight for you"
    • "And you deserve a champion who stands with you.
  • She sounded conciliatory
    • "This is a historic race. And I commend Senator Obama and his supporters tonight."
  • She tapped the feminist card
    • "We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an America that embraces every last one of us, the women in their 90s who tell me they were born before women could vote. And they're hopeful of seeing a woman in the White House. The mothers and fathers at my events who lift their little girls on their shoulders and whisper in their ears, 'See, you can be anything you want.'"
  • She made a fundraising request
    • "Now, we can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who outspends us so massively, so I hope you'll go to HillaryClinton.com"
  • She included a powerful narrative
    • "Not long ago -- not long ago, a woman handed me a photograph of her father as a young soldier. He was receiving the Medal of Honor from President Truman at the White House. During World War II, he had risked his life on a daring mission to drive back the enemy and protect his fellow soldiers. In the corner of that photo, in shaking handwriting, this American hero had simply written, "To Hillary Clinton, keep fighting for us."

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Why Hillary Still Cannot Win

Although it looks like Hillary will win by about 10%, it is still not enough. She can continue fighting, but she cannot convince super delegates.

Why?
  • Hillary is under immense media pressure to quit. (see NYT editorial set to be published tomorrow).
  • Hillary must ask super delegates to overthrow Barack's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote. This is the fundamental problem: there is absolutely no way that super delegates are going to enrage countless new voters, blacks, and others by taking the nomination away from Obama. Only a huge margin of victory tonight could have done that--and 10% is not huge.

"Bitter" Fallout

I have been going through the exit polls and noticed the following question (source). I think that this is a reasonable indication that the "bitter" comments about guns etc. probably had some impact. Granted, voters who own guns were already supporting Clinton. Nonetheless, a 20% margin is quite large.



Do you or does someone else in your household own a gun?

Pct. of total Clinton Obama
36 Yes 60 40
64 No 48 52

Clinton Campaign Pulling Out All the Tricks

As if you needed any more evidence of how much is at stake in the primary fight in PA, I noted how the Clinton campaign is pulling out all the stops.

  • The Clinton campaign unveiled a new ad entitled "Kitchen" (view here). It is a very sharp attack ad that plays on fears of a terrorist attack and fears of Barack Obama's inexperience.
  • Bill Clinton accused the Obama campaign of playing the race card (source).
  • Hillary Clinton said that she "must win" PA (source). This is a pressure tactic designed to make voters feel the importance of going out and supporting her.
  • Clinton personally greeted lots of voters in front of a polling station in an effort to sway any undecided vote (source).

Monday, April 21, 2008

Tomorrow: The Beginning of the End for Clinton

Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for Clinton. She will win, but not by enough.
  • Her campaign is losing the race for remaining super delegates (source)
  • Her campaign is deeply in debt (source)
  • Her attempts to stop Obama with Rev. Wright and the "bitter" comments have failed. It is doubtful that anything she can throw at Obama will succeed in materially affecting things at this point.
  • Her candidacy MUST win the popular vote to have any say with the super delegates. Yet, it is looking increasingly more difficult to do this.
  • Democratic leaders, most notably Howard Dean, are increasingly exerting pressure on the superdelegates to end the protracted primary fight. This means that Senator Obama will probably gain more superdelegates. (source)

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Least Common Denominator Faith (Pt. 3)

In the next installment of the series on least-common-denominator faith in American politics, we examine some comments from Senator Barack Obama. (see transcript)

After reading Senator Obama's extended comments at the compassion forum, it is clear that he conceives of religion as primarily a force for social good. For examlpe, he spoke about "our obligations religiously, in terms of doing good works, and how does that inform our politics."

Later in his remarks to the compassion forum, he again reduced Christianity down to social transformation and linked this "core value" to "all great religions."
[Obama:] "And, you know, if I'm acting in an ethical way, if I am working to make sure that I am applying what I consider to be a core value of Christianity, but also a core value of all great religions, and that is that I am my brother's keeper and I am my sister's keeper, then I will be doing my part to move his agenda forward."

The same principle--faith is about social transformation--is on display in Senator Obama's explanation of how he came to become involved in church.
[Obama:] "So as I'm doing this [community] organizing, some of the pastors started saying, 'You know, you've got great ideas, Obama, but, you know, if you're going to organize churches, it might help if you were going to church.' And I thought, 'Well, that's not an unreasonable position.' And so I started visiting some churches. Trinity United Church of Christ was one of the churches that we were trying to get involved in the organization."

Finally, the same principle is on display when it comes to using the language of religion.
[Obama:] "What religious language can often do is allow us to get outside of ourselves and mobilize around a common good."

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Clinton's Sophistic Authenticity Problem

In tonight's Democratic debate (transcript here), one of the moderators asked the candidates whether the other could beat John McCain. Senator Obama was straight forward while Senator Clinton was not. This is a case-in-point that demonstrates Senator Clinton's problem.


MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me pick up on this. When these comments from Senator Obama broke on Friday, Senator McCain's campaign immediately said that it was going to be a killer issue in November.

Senator Clinton, when Bill Richardson called you to say he was endorsing Barack Obama, you told him that Senator Obama can't win. I'm not going to ask you about that conversation. I know you don't want to talk about it. But a simple yes-or-no question: Do you think Senator Obama can beat John McCain or not?

SEN. CLINTON: Well, I think we have to beat John McCain, and I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president and it's going to be either Barack or me. And we're going to make that happen.

And what is important is that we understand exactly the challenges facing us in order to defeat Senator McCain.

He will be a formidable candidate. There isn't any doubt about that. He has a great American story to tell. He's a man who has served our country with distinction over many years, but he has the wrong ideas about America. And those ideas will be tested in the cauldron of this campaign.

But I also know, having now gone through 16 years of being on the receiving end of what the Republican Party dishes out, how important it is that we try to go after every single vote everywhere we possibly can to get to those electoral votes that we're going to need to have the next president elected.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: But the question is, do you think Senator Obama can do that? Can he win?

SEN. CLINTON: Yes. Yes. Yes.

Now, I think that I can do a better job. (Laughter.) I mean, obviously, that's why I'm here. I think I am better able and better prepared in large measure because of what I've been through and the work that I've done and the results that I've produced for people and the coalition that I have put together in this campaign, that Charlie referred to earlier.

Obviously, I believe I would be the best president, or I would not still be here, standing on this stage, and I believe I'm the better and stronger candidate against Senator McCain, to go toe to toe with him on national security and on how we turn the economy around.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Obama, do yo think Senator Clinton can win?

SEN. OBAMA: Absolutely, and I've said so before. But I too think that I'm the better candidate. (Laughter.) And I don't think that surprises anybody.

Obama Finally Answers "Bitter" Comments With Flavor

For the first time that I am aware of, Senator Obama has responded to the "bitter" controversy in a way that meshed with his overall campaign (i.e., hope and change). In tonight's Democratic debate (transcript), he admitted that people are frustrated and concerned (hence his "bitter comments"). But, instead of leaving it at this, he emphasized that he is the man to elevate the same old politics that have left voters discouraged and empty. (Notice the bolded portions).

SEN. OBAMA: So this i something that I've said before. It is something that I will repeat again. And yes, people are frustrated and angry about it, but what we're seeing in this election is the opportunity to break through that frustration. And that's what our campaign has been about, saying that if the American people get involved and engaged, then we are going to start seeing change. And that's what makes this election unique.

Deep Divide in Democratic Party

In analyzing the transcript from tonight's presidential debate between Senators Obama and Clinton, I noticed how deep the division has become. Consider the fact that each candidate seemed to utterly avoid the possibility of nominating the other as a VP candidate. (see transcript).

[Moderator: ]But pledge now that whichever one of you wins this contest, you'll take the other as your running mate, and that the other will agree if they lose, to take second place on the ticket.

So I put the question to both of you: Why not?

(Pause, laughter.)

Don't all speak at once. (Laughter.)

SEN. OBAMA: Well, I'm happy to start with a response. Look, this has been an extraordinary journey that both Senator Clinton and I have been on and a number of other able candidates. And I think very highly of Senator Clinton's record. But as I've said before, I think it's premature at this point for us to talk about who vice presidential candidates will be because we're still trying to determine who the nominee will be.

But one thing I'm absolutely certain of is that come August, when we're in Denver, the Democratic Party will come together, because we have no choice if we want to deliver on the promises that not only we've made but the founders made. We are seeing peoples' economic status slipping further and further behind. We've seen people who have not only lost their jobs but now are at risk of losing their homes.

We have a sharp contrast in terms of economic policies. John McCain wants to continue four more years of George Bush policies and, on the foreign policy front, wants to continue George Bush's foreign policy.

So I'm confident that both Senator Clinton's supporters and Senator Obama's supporters will be supporting the Democratic nominee when we start engaging in that general election.

MR. GIBSON: But Senator Clinton, Governor Cuomo made that suggestion because he's not so sure. And other Democrats are not so sure.

Just to quote from the Constitution again, "In every case," Article Two, Section One, "after the choice of the president, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the vice president."

If it was good enough in colonial times, why not in these times.

SEN. CLINTON: Well, Charlie, I'm going to do everything I possibly can to make sure that one of us takes the oath of office next January. I think that has to be the overriding goal, whatever we have to do.

Obviously we are still contesting to determine who will be the nominee. But once that is resolved, I think it is absolutely imperative that our entire party close ranks, that we become unified.

I will do everything to make sure that the people who supported me support our nominee.

I will go anywhere in the country to make the case. And I know that Barack feels the same way, because both of us have spent 15 months traveling our country. I have seen the damage of the Bush years. I've seen the extraordinary pain that people have suffered from because of the failed policies; you know, those who have held my hands who have lost sons or daughters in Iraq, and those who have lost sons or daughters because they didn't have health insurance.

And so, regardless of the differences there may be between us, and they are differences, they pale in comparison to the differences between us and Senator McCain.

So we will certainly do whatever is necessary to make sure that a Democrat is in the White House next January.



d

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Why Mitt Romney is a Flawed VP Candidate

With Mitt Romney passionately advocating for John McCain’s candidacy in cable TV interviews, traveling with to western states for McCain fundraisers, and campaigning in Pennsylvania for Senator McCain, it appears that the McCain camp is testing the waters of a Romney vice presidential nomination. Although Mitt Romney would bring advantages to McCain’s candidacy, Romney remains a deeply flawed vice presidential candidate because he lacks a consistent conservative track record, fails to energize conservative voters, epitomizes the “say-anything-to-get-elected” politician, and lacks support amongst values voters.

The most problematic aspect of Mitt Romney as the vice presidential nominee is the fact that he is running as a republican. Yet, Romney’s history is marred by a slew of liberal positions he vehemently espoused while campaigning in the 1990s in Massachusetts. For example, Romney once asserted that he would be a more vocal proponent of the gay agenda than far-left Senator Edward Kennedy.[1] Similarly, in his debate xyz woman, Romney vehemently contended that he was not a pro-life candidate or a friend of social conservatives. With it comes to gun rights and other conservative issues, Romney passionately repudiated conservatism during his Massachusetts campaigns. As a vice presidential candidate, Romney will be in an extremely difficult position. He can either revert back to parts of his past in an attempt to connect with independents and Democrats and thereby alienate conservative voters or he can provide Democrats and hard-line conservatives with a limitless video real of quotes espousing positions antithetical to classical conservatism. Either way, Romney is a liability to John McCain.

The second problem with Mitt Romney as a vice presidential nominee is his failure to energize the base. Despite Mitt Romney’s expensive and repeated attempts to portray himself as the heir of Ronald Regan—whom, he impugned while campaigning during the 1990s—and staunch defender of conservative ideals, Romney utterly failed in convincing conservative voters in primaries. For example, in Iowa and South Carolina, exit-polls showed that Romney lost heavily amongst voters who described themselves as very conservative or somewhat conservative.[2] When it came to garnering support from key grass roots Republicans, Romney failed there too. The fiscally conservative Club for Growth said Romney’s economic record contained some “troublesome positions that beg to be explained” while the socially conservative Pat Robertson inexplicably endorsed Rudi Giuliani and national security conservatives like Liz Cheney endorsed Fred Thompson.

The third problem with Romney is that he epitomizes the classic politician who will say anything to win an election. His never-ending slew of spin, sophistry, and non-sequiturs raised countless doubts about his authenticity. For example, in Romney’s much-anticipated speech of faith in America, he said, “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King.”[3] When confronted with the fact that his father never marched with Dr. King, Romney entered the sophistry hall of fame by saying, “If you look at the literature, if you look at the dictionary, the term 'saw' includes being aware of in the sense I've described. It's a figure of speech and very familiar, and it's very common. And I saw my dad march with Martin Luther King. I did not see it with my own eyes, but I saw him in the sense of being aware of his participation in that great effort.”[4] This type of rhetorical gymnastic is familiar and common? Rather, it is this type of insincere “say-anything” attitude cost Romney dearly in republican primaries. In Iowa, exit-polls showed that voters who said the most important candidate quality was “saying what you believe” overwhelming opposed Romney.[5] The same dynamic played out in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

A final problem with Romney as the vice presidential nominee is his lack of support amongst social conservatives and values voters. In a television and YouTube age, he cannot escape his repeated and emphatic support of abortion and gay marriage while campaigning in Massachusetts during the 1990s. Given the large and important role that social conservatives play in the Republican Party, it is absolutely essential that these voters feel energized and enthusiastic. Mitt Romney is not a vice presidential nominee that engenders strong support. Mitt Romney is flawed.

How (Bill) Clinton Lost the 2008 Presidential Campaign

What in the world was Bill Clinton thinking on April 10 when he brought up Hillary Clinton’s “misstatement” about landing under sniper fire in Bosnia? Just when the issue that cost Senator Clinton at least five points in the polls evaporated from the pages of newspapers and the consciousness of voters, Bill Clinton revived it. Even worse, the former president himself “misstated” half a dozen facts about Hillary’s trip and recollection of it. If last Thursday’s incident was the first time Bill damaged his wife’s campaign for president, it would be one thing. However, this is yet another page in an ever-growing book. Looking back at President Clinton’s influence on his wife’s campaign and on Al Gore’s 2000 campaign, it is becoming clear that Bill Clinton’s large personality and loose tongue overshadow and damage the presidential campaigns of others. The reason why Hillary is a national candidate in the first place is also the reason why she will not win.

In October, November, and early December, dozens of polls showed that Hillary Clinton held a strong lead over Barack Obama in South Carolina. Even after Senator Obama’s upset victory in Iowa on January 3, the race in the Palmetto State remained close.[1] The downward spiral began when some African-Americans rightly took offense at Bill Clinton’s charge in New Hampshire that Senator Obama and his claims were “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.” Things deteriorated precipitously in mid-January when Hillary left South Carolina to Bill in order to campaign for the February 5 Super-Tuesday states. Instead of championing Hillary’s policies and trying to avoid media coverage that distracted from Senator Clinton’s candidacy, Bill made himself the center of attention by repeatedly attacking Barack Obama and the media in ways that many interpreted as racially-charged.

Speaking to a reporter on January 23, the red-faced finger-wagging former president said that the Obama campaign and its surrogates are “feeding” the media racially-controversial stories “because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for…. And the Obama people know that. So they just spin you up on this and you happily go along…shame on you.”[2] When these comments emerged, they eclipsed any coverage of Hillary or her policies for a few days. Sadly, this same theme played out repeatedly in the days running up to the South Carolina primary.

Bill, along with Hillary surrogates such as New York Congressman Charles Rangel and BET Founder Robert Johnson, repeatedly poured gasoline on the fire of a racially-charged controversy stemming from a comment that Senator Clinton made that seemed dismissive of the Martin Luther King’s work and legacy. These incendiary comments drew fire from prominent blacks such as Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton.[3] As if Bill had not yet inflamed racial tensions enough, on election day, when polls showed Senator Obama would win, the former president added a final comment that solidified the anger in the African-American community toward the Clintons. With a smirk on his face, Bill Clinton responded to a reporter’s question about why Senator Obama won by saying in a demeaning tone, “Jessie Jackson won South Carolina twice in 84 and 88.” The clear implication of this statement is that Barack Obama is the Jessie Jackson of the 2008 presidential campaign—a fringe candidate whose primary appeal is limited to racial factors. As a result of Bill Clinton’s overshadowing personality and under-disciplined mouth, Senator Obama racked up a near 30% margin of victory. This defeat marked only the beginning of the problems that Bill Clinton unleashed on his wife’s candidacy.

First, the landslide defeat in South Carolina gave Senator Obama the crucial momentum he needed to win 10 consecutive states, shattering Senator Clinton’s aura of inevitability and overtaking Senator Clinton’s delegate lead. Second, the irreparable damage done by Bill Clinton to the African-American community’s support for Senator Clinton stood out as the most significant long-term damage Bill’s campaign rhetoric and strategy in South Carolina had. In the Palmetto State, 78% of blacks voted for Senator Obama. In Georgia’s February 5 primary, Bill Clinton clearly played a role in Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic voters with a somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, and strongly unfavorable opinion of Bill Clinton voted by a nearly 4-to-1 margin for Senator Obama.[4] Similarly, in Maryland’s February 12 primary, 84% of blacks voted for Senator Obama.[5]

Third, the way Bill Clinton’s attacks on Senator Obama injected race into the primary angered many super delegates, causing them to break their silence and endorse Senator Obama. For example, Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts reportedly endorsed Senator Obama after Kennedy repeatedly expressed frustration with Bill Clinton’s more aggressive campaign rhetoric. The slew of super delegate endorsements that came after Kennedy’s severely undercut the argument that Hillary enjoyed the support of the party establishment, who ostensibly saw her as the established candidate.

While Bill Clinton made a great politician when it came to campaigning for himself, he is making a terrible campaigner when it comes to campaigning for her husband.