Friday, May 23, 2008

Republican VP Nominee Analysis

With John McCain effectively holding interviews for the VP spot this weekend, I thought I would size up the republican VP selection process and analyze the possible candidates (source). This is extremely speculative and subjective, but I thought I would post anyway.

Mitt Romney
Pros:
  • Business Experience
    • Mitt Romney conveys the image of someone who is a business leader. This helped him win the Michigan primary. His experience at Bain Capital and the Sault Lake Olympics are important stories to tell.
    • In a year where the economy is a big issue, this is an important talking point for the McCain campaign.
  • Money
    • With republicans having trouble raising money, Mitt Romney's personal fortune (estimated to be about $250 million) and his ability to raise money in the business community is a strong asset.
  • Energetic Campaigner
    • Mitt Romney campaigned with energy and vigor, something that Fred Thompson and others lacked.
  • Great Debater
    • Romney and Mike Huckabee were the best debtors on the republican side.
  • Energized Base
    • Fiscal conservatives and Mormons will show up to vote for Romney.
  • Good Attacker
    • Romney has appeared on television on behalf of the McCain campaign a number of times since dropping out of the race and has launched scathing and effective attacks against Senator Obama. This is an important role for the VP and McCain needs someone comfortable attacking.

Cons:
  • Liberal Social Record
    • This is a big problem for social conservatives, who are already leery of John McCain and his "agents of intolerance" view of some evangelicals.
  • Not Liked by Social Conservatives
    • This is interconnected to the above issue.
  • Will Not Add States to Electoral College
    • Romney will be unlikely to deliver any states that John McCain could not have won without him.


Bobby Jindal
Pros:
  • Young
    • Jindal is 36 years of age and brings lots of vigor to the campaign
  • Not A WASP
    • Jindal converted from Hinduism to Catholicism as a teenager. He is the son of Indian immigrants.
  • Socially Conservative
    • Jindal is a strong social conservative who won lots of Catholics in Louisiana.

Cons:
  • Inexperienced
    • Americans may be hesitant to accept the possibility of a 36 year old man with 2 years as Governor of Louisiana and 2 years before that as a U.S. Representative.
  • Not Presidential Looking
    • He does not have the aura of a president (yet). (Personally, I think Jindal is one of the brightest future stars of the Republican party).

Mike Huckabee
Pros:
  • Great Debater
    • Huckabee came to prominence as he turned in one great debate performance after another.
  • Great Public Speaker
    • Huckabee often speaks extemporaneously and is extremely effective. I know the woman who managed his campaign in a crucial early state and she told me that he had no real speech writer and gave some important speeches with little in the way of prepared remarks.
  • Connects Well With Rural Voters
    • With Barack Obama having troubles connecting with working class white voters, Mike Huckabee could very well peal some Democrats off. He is extremely effective connecting with these individuals and appearing as the "everyday" candidate.
  • Brings Many Evangelicals
    • Huckabee surged to a national candidate on the backs of evangelicals in Iowa.

Cons:
  • Seen As Fringe Religious Candidate (by Many)
    • Huckabee's strength was his weakness. Many in the media despised his connection with evangelicals and portrayed him as the "preacher" candidate.
  • Despised by Fiscal Conservatives
    • Huckabee raised taxes considerably in Arkansas and was the subject of blistering negative ads by the conservative Club for Growth.

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