Tuesday, April 15, 2008

How (Bill) Clinton Lost the 2008 Presidential Campaign

What in the world was Bill Clinton thinking on April 10 when he brought up Hillary Clinton’s “misstatement” about landing under sniper fire in Bosnia? Just when the issue that cost Senator Clinton at least five points in the polls evaporated from the pages of newspapers and the consciousness of voters, Bill Clinton revived it. Even worse, the former president himself “misstated” half a dozen facts about Hillary’s trip and recollection of it. If last Thursday’s incident was the first time Bill damaged his wife’s campaign for president, it would be one thing. However, this is yet another page in an ever-growing book. Looking back at President Clinton’s influence on his wife’s campaign and on Al Gore’s 2000 campaign, it is becoming clear that Bill Clinton’s large personality and loose tongue overshadow and damage the presidential campaigns of others. The reason why Hillary is a national candidate in the first place is also the reason why she will not win.

In October, November, and early December, dozens of polls showed that Hillary Clinton held a strong lead over Barack Obama in South Carolina. Even after Senator Obama’s upset victory in Iowa on January 3, the race in the Palmetto State remained close.[1] The downward spiral began when some African-Americans rightly took offense at Bill Clinton’s charge in New Hampshire that Senator Obama and his claims were “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.” Things deteriorated precipitously in mid-January when Hillary left South Carolina to Bill in order to campaign for the February 5 Super-Tuesday states. Instead of championing Hillary’s policies and trying to avoid media coverage that distracted from Senator Clinton’s candidacy, Bill made himself the center of attention by repeatedly attacking Barack Obama and the media in ways that many interpreted as racially-charged.

Speaking to a reporter on January 23, the red-faced finger-wagging former president said that the Obama campaign and its surrogates are “feeding” the media racially-controversial stories “because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for…. And the Obama people know that. So they just spin you up on this and you happily go along…shame on you.”[2] When these comments emerged, they eclipsed any coverage of Hillary or her policies for a few days. Sadly, this same theme played out repeatedly in the days running up to the South Carolina primary.

Bill, along with Hillary surrogates such as New York Congressman Charles Rangel and BET Founder Robert Johnson, repeatedly poured gasoline on the fire of a racially-charged controversy stemming from a comment that Senator Clinton made that seemed dismissive of the Martin Luther King’s work and legacy. These incendiary comments drew fire from prominent blacks such as Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton.[3] As if Bill had not yet inflamed racial tensions enough, on election day, when polls showed Senator Obama would win, the former president added a final comment that solidified the anger in the African-American community toward the Clintons. With a smirk on his face, Bill Clinton responded to a reporter’s question about why Senator Obama won by saying in a demeaning tone, “Jessie Jackson won South Carolina twice in 84 and 88.” The clear implication of this statement is that Barack Obama is the Jessie Jackson of the 2008 presidential campaign—a fringe candidate whose primary appeal is limited to racial factors. As a result of Bill Clinton’s overshadowing personality and under-disciplined mouth, Senator Obama racked up a near 30% margin of victory. This defeat marked only the beginning of the problems that Bill Clinton unleashed on his wife’s candidacy.

First, the landslide defeat in South Carolina gave Senator Obama the crucial momentum he needed to win 10 consecutive states, shattering Senator Clinton’s aura of inevitability and overtaking Senator Clinton’s delegate lead. Second, the irreparable damage done by Bill Clinton to the African-American community’s support for Senator Clinton stood out as the most significant long-term damage Bill’s campaign rhetoric and strategy in South Carolina had. In the Palmetto State, 78% of blacks voted for Senator Obama. In Georgia’s February 5 primary, Bill Clinton clearly played a role in Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic voters with a somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, and strongly unfavorable opinion of Bill Clinton voted by a nearly 4-to-1 margin for Senator Obama.[4] Similarly, in Maryland’s February 12 primary, 84% of blacks voted for Senator Obama.[5]

Third, the way Bill Clinton’s attacks on Senator Obama injected race into the primary angered many super delegates, causing them to break their silence and endorse Senator Obama. For example, Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts reportedly endorsed Senator Obama after Kennedy repeatedly expressed frustration with Bill Clinton’s more aggressive campaign rhetoric. The slew of super delegate endorsements that came after Kennedy’s severely undercut the argument that Hillary enjoyed the support of the party establishment, who ostensibly saw her as the established candidate.

While Bill Clinton made a great politician when it came to campaigning for himself, he is making a terrible campaigner when it comes to campaigning for her husband.

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