Unspinning Inevitability (Pt. 2)

After posting my first blog on this topic (where I tried to show how difficult it would be for Clinton to secure the nomination), I received an email from a friend who challenged my assertion and contended that Clinton could still win.

In fairness, let me offer what I see as the most plausible Clinton victory scenario:
(Note: A major assumption of the following is that the delegates from FL and MI do not get counted, as the DNC originally stated would be the case. Hillary's best shot at the nomination is for these delegates to be counted, but this will really anger many Obama supporters who will feel that the nomination was stolen).



(source: personal calculations; data from RCP)

Notice under this scenario how tough things will be for Hillary: She has to basically tie Obama in every state except for PA, TX, and OH, where she must blow him out. Unfortunately for Hillary, I still cannot see this happening.

Hillary's plan for victory must include the following:

• Win TX and OH by a comfortable margin (at least 10 points)
• Procure the endorsement of John Edwards and Al Gore
• Use this momentum to win PA by a large margin (at least 15 points)
• Out perform Obama in procuring outstanding super delegates (secure at least 55%)
• Manage not to get blown out in any other primaries (no losses by more than 10 points)