The Obama's Fist Pound

This picture says it all...


"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama bumps fists with his wife Michelle before his speech at his South Dakota and Montana presidential primary election night rally in St. Paul, Minnesota June 3, 2008. (Eric Miller/Reuters)" (source)

Obama and the Foreign Press

It is 10:55pm EST and I'm watching Senator Obama shake hands with people after his speech live on MSNBC. Nonetheless, look at the news papers from the foreign press. They have already put Senator Obama on the front page of their website.

Bobby Jindal VP Stump Speech Tryout

Did you see Bobby Jindal "happen" to introduce Senator McCain and give a 3 minute stump speech supporting McCain on prime time TV at about 8:30pm EST? I have to suspect that Senator McCain's campaign is trying to feel out Jindal's political prowess on a national scale.

I give the McCain credit for capitalizing on a large national prime time TV audience that is certainly filled with democrats wanting to watch Senator Obama's speech.

Fox and NBC/MSNBC in War

I was watching the O'Reilly factor on May 29, 2008 and listened to Bill O'Reilly rant on MSNBC/NBC and its supposedly unfair and biased coverage favoring Senator Obama. Although O'Reilly is definitely not the gold standard for fair journalism, I post about this because it is a new dimension of today's media--fighting about fairness and bias within the media. No longer is it political pundits complaining about media coverage, now the media personalities themselves analyze and criticize other networks. View O'Reilly's complaint here (short version) and here (longer version).


View more here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Senator Obama: When will you finally visit Iraq?

I recently saw the following PAC ad attacking Senator Obama about his Iraq policy and failure to visit Iraq (view here at YouTube). This ad dovetails with Senator McCain's attacks on Senator Obama for his failure to visit Iraq and acknowledge the progress made.

Why This Ad is Effective

• It does not feel like a typical attack ad.
• Between the music and soft voice, the ad does not engender the feelings of a typical attack ad with dark colors, deep music, and slashing commentary.
  
• It inspires/plays on patriotism.
• It uses Senator Obama's own words against him.
• The subtle reasoning is that if Senator Obama will meet "one-on-one unconditionally" with Iran, why won't he meet under similar circumstances with American troops in Iraq.
  
• It uses a veteran.
  
• This ads credibility and makes it more difficult to attack the source of the ad.
• It plays on the perception of Senator Obama's foreign policy weakness.
  

One of the Best Speeches of This Campaign

I recently re-watched Barack Obama's speech in Iowa in which he essentially celebrated his primary nomination by thanking the people who made his campaign possible--the voters of Iowa who catapulted him to a national candidacy that could overcome the inevitable.

The speech is available here on YouTube and here as a transcript.

To get an idea of the enthusiasm and the passion of the crowd and of Senator Obama, begin watching at 17 minutes.

Why This Speech is Effective

• Senator Obama thanked the people who made his candidacy possible
• It is far too rare for politicians to go back to their base and thank the people who made their candidacy possible. Senator Obama was extremely smart to do this.
• Senator Obama is subtly reminding the country that he is popular in "white America"
• By holding an event in a largely white state that he won, he is trying to counter the idea that he cannot win white votes
• Senator Obama is extremely gracious to Senator Clinton
• Senator Obama stays on message
• Emphasis on hope and change
• Subtle attacks against John McCain, who is linked to George Bush

My final comment is that I struggle to imagine how Senator McCain can win in the fall with an orator like this as an opponent and a crowd that is this excited. (I still think it is possible since democrats seem to specialize in loosing elections).

Democratic Establishment Turns on Clinton

As I've been monitoring the news commentaries, I've noticed how the democratic party and its news outlets (MSNBC, New York Times, Daily Kos, Huffington Post) have turned against Senator Clinton.

In the past few days, the following storied have been published:

• Keith Olberman absolutely exploded in his "special comments" against Senator Clinton last night (May 23, 2008). (see here)
• Daily Kos (here)
• New York Times (here)
• MSNBC (Florida coverage)
• MSNBC (Chris Matthews almost cries over thought of Senator Obama loosing; here)

Notice the following comments that the Clinton campaign/etc. has made about the biased news coverage:

• Terry McAuliffe Says Chris Matthews is pro-Obama (here; this is an absolutely blistering on-air critique of Chris Matthews--wait until the end of the interview for the comments)
• Joe Scarborough on MSNBC news bias (here)
• About Keith Olberman (here)
• Even CNN noted it (here)
• Fox News slams MSNBC (here)
• As early as May 2007, Fox attacks MSNBC (here)
• Hillary, Bill, and Lanny Davis on Fox (here)
• Terry Mcauliffe on MSNBC (here)
• Terry Mcauliffe on Fox News congratulating the network (here)
• Terry McAuliffe slams NYT (here)
  

Bobby Jindal: A Bright Future for the Republican Party

I've spent quite a bit of time tonight looking at Bobby Jindal's history (if you don't know much about him see wikipedia here).

I looked at a number of his 2007 gubernatorial campaign ads and the one that stood out to me was War on Corruption. This ad epitomized the essence of his candidacy and shared many similarities to Senator Obama's.
Here is Why I Think Jindal Has Tremendous Potential:

• He is Youthful
• Jindal has the aura of someone with youth and vigor--something that people like John McCain lack.
  
• He is Not a WASP
• This seems to be a hot commodity in American politics (see all the energy about Senator Obama's and Clinton's candidacy--Clinton is a WASP, but not a man).
  
• He Inspires
• His message of a new beginning for Louisiana carried the day. His speeches are inspiring (although not quite at the level of Senator Obama). Moreover, unlike Senator Obama, Jindal is better able to connect to working class voters.
  
• He Endured Scathing Political Attack Ads
• If you think you've seen it all in the form of attack ads, see this. I watched a lot of nasty attack ads for the Louisiana governor's race, but this one takes the cake. I believe that Jindal's ability to take this type of rough and tumble attack and still win is a strong asset and a good predictor of his ability to weather attacks.
• He Knows His Policy
• I watched Governor Jindal about 3 weeks ago at the DC Press club on CSPAN taking questions from guests and Jindal spoke with a clear knowledge of the issues.
  

Republican VP Nominee Analysis

With John McCain effectively holding interviews for the VP spot this weekend, I thought I would size up the republican VP selection process and analyze the possible candidates (source). This is extremely speculative and subjective, but I thought I would post anyway.

Mitt Romney
Pros:

• Business Experience
• Mitt Romney conveys the image of someone who is a business leader. This helped him win the Michigan primary. His experience at Bain Capital and the Sault Lake Olympics are important stories to tell.
• In a year where the economy is a big issue, this is an important talking point for the McCain campaign.
  
• Money
• With republicans having trouble raising money, Mitt Romney's personal fortune (estimated to be about $250 million) and his ability to raise money in the business community is a strong asset.
  
• Energetic Campaigner
  
• Mitt Romney campaigned with energy and vigor, something that Fred Thompson and others lacked.
  
• Great Debater
• Romney and Mike Huckabee were the best debtors on the republican side.
  
• Energized Base
• Fiscal conservatives and Mormons will show up to vote for Romney.
  
• Good Attacker
• Romney has appeared on television on behalf of the McCain campaign a number of times since dropping out of the race and has launched scathing and effective attacks against Senator Obama. This is an important role for the VP and McCain needs someone comfortable attacking.
  

Cons:

• Liberal Social Record
• This is a big problem for social conservatives, who are already leery of John McCain and his "agents of intolerance" view of some evangelicals.
  
• Not Liked by Social Conservatives
• This is interconnected to the above issue.
  
• Will Not Add States to Electoral College
• Romney will be unlikely to deliver any states that John McCain could not have won without him.
  

Bobby Jindal
Pros:

• Young
• Jindal is 36 years of age and brings lots of vigor to the campaign
• Not A WASP
• Jindal converted from Hinduism to Catholicism as a teenager. He is the son of Indian immigrants.
  
• Socially Conservative
• Jindal is a strong social conservative who won lots of Catholics in Louisiana.

Cons:

• Inexperienced
• Americans may be hesitant to accept the possibility of a 36 year old man with 2 years as Governor of Louisiana and 2 years before that as a U.S. Representative.
• Not Presidential Looking
• He does not have the aura of a president (yet). (Personally, I think Jindal is one of the brightest future stars of the Republican party).
  

Mike Huckabee
Pros:

• Great Debater
• Huckabee came to prominence as he turned in one great debate performance after another.
  
• Great Public Speaker
• Huckabee often speaks extemporaneously and is extremely effective. I know the woman who managed his campaign in a crucial early state and she told me that he had no real speech writer and gave some important speeches with little in the way of prepared remarks.
  
• Connects Well With Rural Voters
• With Barack Obama having troubles connecting with working class white voters, Mike Huckabee could very well peal some Democrats off. He is extremely effective connecting with these individuals and appearing as the "everyday" candidate.
  
• Brings Many Evangelicals
• Huckabee surged to a national candidate on the backs of evangelicals in Iowa.
  

Cons:

• Seen As Fringe Religious Candidate (by Many)
• Huckabee's strength was his weakness. Many in the media despised his connection with evangelicals and portrayed him as the "preacher" candidate.
  
• Despised by Fiscal Conservatives
• Huckabee raised taxes considerably in Arkansas and was the subject of blistering negative ads by the conservative Club for Growth.
  

Huge Obama Crowd

Senator Obama recently held a rally in Oregon with a mammoth crowd. An astonishing 75,000 people attended his rally.

From the Washington Post:

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Sen. Barack Obama has seen his share of large crowds over the past 15 months, but his campaign said they have not approached the numbers gathered along the waterfront here right now.

The campaign, citing figures from Duane Bray, battalion chief of Portland Fire & Rescue, estimated that 75,000 people are watching him speak.

The scene suggests this is not an exaggeration. The sea of heads stretches for half a mile along the grassy embankment, while others watch from kayaks and power boats bobbing on the Willamette River. More hug the rails of the steel bridge that stretches across the water and crowds are even watching from jetties on the opposite shore.

(Source: Washington Post blog)



Look at the number of boats that pulled up to listen to Senator Obama.
(From Time.com)

Timing of Edwards Endorsement

Was it just a coincidence that the Obama's campaign scheduled John Edward's endorsement for 6:30pm on a day when Senator Clinton had interviews with all the major nightly news programs (which show at 6:30pm)? Was it just a coincidence that the Obama campaign scheduled John Edward's endorsement for the day after Hillary Clinton's landslide victory over Senator Obama?

Elections are all about momentum and managing news. Senator Obama's campaign gets an A+ for blunting the momentum of Senator Clinton's landslide victory last night by scheduling an endorsement that will make news and wash out the news of Clinton's landslide victory.

Obama and Local News

Senator Obama's campaign rally was such big news in Grand Rapids that local television stations interrupted their regular programing (7pm hours with Jeopardy, Entertainment Tonight, etc.) to cover the event live with multiple reporters.

(In the above photo, you see the TV screen, which shows Obama speaking and thousands of people outside the arena watching on a big-screen).

Barack Obama in Grand Rapids

Barack Obama came to Grand Rapids, MI today. As someone who is living in the area, I decided I would go and see him. Well, I never expected that the Obama event would be such an astronomically popular event in this conservative bastion.

The rally was scheduled to start at 7pm EST. I showed up moments before 6pm and the doors were already closed and the arena was filled and closed by the fire marshal. Moreover, thousands of people stood outside waiting for the possibility to get into the overflow room. (see below)






As I left the arena disappointed, I called a friend of mine who said he was going to show up early. He made it inside and had a spot toward the front. The catch--he showed up at 2:3opm and the doors opened at 5pm.

Obama and White Shirts

I've noticed that Senator Obama (almost) always wears a white shirt. This is quite an interesting observation and I don't know what to make of it. I've selected some photos recently, but I looked back a long way and this trend holds true.



"Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks to host Tim Russert during a live taping of 'Meet the Press' May 4, 2008 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Voters in Indiana and North Carolina go to primary polls May 6. (AJ Mast-Meet the Press/Handout/Reuters)" (view)



"U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) has his cheek touched by 7-month-old Aedyn Buchanan as he visits diners at Stephanie's II homestyle restaurant in Greensboro, North Carolina, May 5, 2008. North Carolina and Indiana will hold their Presidential Primaries on May 6. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 (USA)" (view)






"Presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets workers during a shift change at the Automotive Components Holdings, LLC. in Indianapolis, Monday, May 5, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)



"Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama talks with two voters outside the polling location at Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University in Indianapolis, May 6, 2008. (Brent Smith/Reuters)" (view)

Why Was Bill There???

As soon as I saw Senator Clinton step to the microphone with Bill right behind her, I was shocked. What in the world was the campaign thinking to have Bill stand right behind her for the entire speech looking dead (except for when his name was mentioned)??? Chelsea, yes...Bill, no.



"US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) with daughter Chelsea (L) and husband former President Bill Clinton (C) speaks to supporters at her North Carolina and Indiana primary election night rally in Indianapolis, Indiana, May 6, 2008. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)" (view)





"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton with daughter Chelsea and husband former President Bill Clinton speaks to supporters at her North Carolina and Indiana primary election night rally in Indianapolis, Indiana, May 6, 2008. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)" (view)

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Dreams

Hillary Clinton recently released a new ad (view here). It is entitled "Dreams" and tends to focus on a more personal side of the Senator. Although I think it is prudent for Senator Clinton to enter into this territory, I do not think that this is that great of an ad. Nonetheless, there is an element of persuasion at work.

What Makes This Ad Persuasive

• It's personal. As Karl Rove points out, part of being elected president is being personal and vulnerable (see Rove's Op-Ed in the WSJ).
• It appeals to small town voters--the people who are "bitter" toward Senator Obama.
• It appeals to the American myth--hard work, determination, and becoming what you want to be.
• It appeals to white middle class voters. There are very few minorities in this ad.

Why This Ad is Not That Great

• It is narrated too fast. Hillary sounds like she is speeding through. She needs to go slower for impact and retention amongst viewers.
• She sounds like she is reading from a script.
• She does not speak with passion like Senator Obama does (and George Bush did [on national security and faith]).
  

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Determined

Hillary Clinton released a new ad airing in North Carolina entitled Determined (view here).

Why This Ad is Persuasive

• Features the North Carolina governor, who narrates the entire ad.
• This ads lots of credibility
• Focuses on the bread-and-butter issues likely to be most important to North Carolina voters (e.g., economics, jobs, tax cuts, health care, education)
• Subtly jabs George Bush
• "tax cuts for the middle class for a change"
• Plays on Hillary's emerging image as an underdog fighter who will never give up
• Features blacks, whites, and Latinos
  
• Features lots of everyday people (factory workers, people dressed casually)
  

Clinton's "Everyday" Problem

I found the following video on YouTube (see here).

It shows Clinton having problems using a coffee machine in a gas station store--very embarrassing for a candidate who is putting herself out as the "everyday" candidate. Notice that this video has received about 1 million videos, despite being only a few days old.

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Trouble

In a new ad from the Clinton campaign (view here), Senator Clinton outlines her economic differences with Senator Obama.


Why This Ad is Effective

• Clearly contrasts the candidates in an easy to understand way
• One of the most important parts of effective campaigning is drawing clear contrasts that are easy for the everyday voter to understand. This was one of Karl Rove's specalities. This ad paints in clear and defining strokes the differences between Senators Clinton and Obama.
  
• Populist appeal
• There is a wave of populism in the country today--especially on the Democratic side. Senator Clinton taps into this with her proposal of windfall profit taxes.
  
• Repetition
• Too often, Senator Clinton fails to use repetition to drive home her point. However, she uses "Senator Obama said 'no'" twice to drive home her point.
• Credibility
• The ad features news article sourcing to back up its claims.
• Deadline Pressure
  
• "Its time for a president whose ready to take action now"
• People who are hurting want action now--not later. Hillary appeals to this.
  

Clinton Creating More "Everyday" Image

Senator Clinton has had a lot of success recently at creating the "everyday" image through creative photo-ops.

Although the entire story and details are available here from the New York Times, let me give you the Cliff Notes version of the photo-op.

• Senator Clinton rode in the car of an "average Joe" to work. On the way, she stopped at a gas station to help the Joe fill up with gas and make a point of high gas prices.

Here are the images:



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., pulls herself into the passenger side of a pickup truck to commute into work with sheetmetal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view).

Notice how Senator Clinton happened to ride in a big white Ford pick-up truck. The symbolism here is quite important. No foreign cars. No dirty cars. No small "elitist" hybrid cars.


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., left, rides in a pickup truck to commute to work with sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Most people do not have cars driving in front of them taking pictures of them as they drive to work. Also, you may notice the Secret Service SUV behind Clinton--not exactly every day.



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., speaks about gas prices as sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing puts $63 worth of gas into his pickup truck, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, during a campaign event in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Notice how the photo is set up to show the gas prices behind them.