Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Trouble

In a new ad from the Clinton campaign (view here), Senator Clinton outlines her economic differences with Senator Obama.


Why This Ad is Effective
  • Clearly contrasts the candidates in an easy to understand way
    • One of the most important parts of effective campaigning is drawing clear contrasts that are easy for the everyday voter to understand. This was one of Karl Rove's specalities. This ad paints in clear and defining strokes the differences between Senators Clinton and Obama.
  • Populist appeal
    • There is a wave of populism in the country today--especially on the Democratic side. Senator Clinton taps into this with her proposal of windfall profit taxes.
  • Repetition
    • Too often, Senator Clinton fails to use repetition to drive home her point. However, she uses "Senator Obama said 'no'" twice to drive home her point.
  • Credibility
    • The ad features news article sourcing to back up its claims.
  • Deadline Pressure
    • "Its time for a president whose ready to take action now"
    • People who are hurting want action now--not later. Hillary appeals to this.

Clinton Creating More "Everyday" Image

Senator Clinton has had a lot of success recently at creating the "everyday" image through creative photo-ops.

Although the entire story and details are available here from the New York Times, let me give you the Cliff Notes version of the photo-op.
  • Senator Clinton rode in the car of an "average Joe" to work. On the way, she stopped at a gas station to help the Joe fill up with gas and make a point of high gas prices.
Here are the images:



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., pulls herself into the passenger side of a pickup truck to commute into work with sheetmetal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view).

Notice how Senator Clinton happened to ride in a big white Ford pick-up truck. The symbolism here is quite important. No foreign cars. No dirty cars. No small "elitist" hybrid cars.


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., left, rides in a pickup truck to commute to work with sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Most people do not have cars driving in front of them taking pictures of them as they drive to work. Also, you may notice the Secret Service SUV behind Clinton--not exactly every day.



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., speaks about gas prices as sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing puts $63 worth of gas into his pickup truck, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, during a campaign event in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Notice how the photo is set up to show the gas prices behind them.

Clinton Creating "Everyday" Image

In a repeat of the lead up to the PA primary, Senator Clinton is going door-to-door to create the "everyday" image.



"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., greets a resident as she canvasses for votes along with Mayor Brian Snedecor, right, in Hobart, Ind. Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., meets with residents during a campaign stop in Hobart, Ind., Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Michael McArdle, Pool)" (view)


"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., leaves after greeting David Smar of Hobart, Ind., as she canvasses for votes in the neighborhood Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Monday, April 28, 2008

Obama Calls Wright Fair Game

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, Senator Obama made what will become a major mistake as the campaign plays out.

WALLACE: Senator, you say a lot of good stuff. Reverend Wright (INAUDIBLE) are distractions from the real issues. But especially for someone like you, who’s a newcomer to the national scene, people don’t know a lot about, don’t voters have a legitimate interest in who you are and what your values are?

OBAMA: Absolutely ...I don’t think that the issue of Reverend Wright is illegitimate.

What in the world was Senator Obama thinking? He just gave the OK for republicans to smear him with Rev. Wright. He has weakened his ability to make Rev. Wright an "off limits" topic.

Obama and Guilt by Association

I recently found the following ad playing in Mississippi (view here). This is the second ad like this I have found and I suspect there will be more.

Why This Ad Is Effective
  • Deep and scary sounding voice
  • Portrays Obama as culturally and personally out of touch
  • Quotes from news papers to ad credibility

Friday, April 25, 2008

Bill Clinton's Incredible Spin

This video tells it all (view here). Bill Clinton said the Obama campaign played the race card and then the next day claimed he never said it--absolutely stunning spin.

This is yet another one of Bill Clinton's gaffes that are costing Hillary Clinton dearly--especially amongst blacks.

Clinton Campaign Complementing Fox? Wow!

I never thought I would see the Clinton campaign praise Fox News, but I just did. (see clip here). I did not see this live as I was watching CNN, but this is certainly something. Just proves that if you live long enough, anything is possible.

I just discovered that Fox turned this clip into a promo. (view here)

Obama Looking More "Everyday"

I watched video today from the Obama website of Senator Obama campaigning in Kokomo, Indiana (view). I know Kokomo as my grandparents live there and my dad grew up there. Consequently, I've been there numerous times and have a feeling for the town.

The thing that stood out: Senator Obama is trying to appear everyday and appeal to the white working class people.

  • Senator Obama is not wearing a suit coat. He is appearing everyday. Notice as well that his shirt is rolled up a tad.


"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a town hall-style meeting in Kokomo, Ind., Friday, April 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

  • Senator Obama played basket ball with people in Kokomo. With a dad who grew up playing basketball in Kokomo, I can tell you that this is a very personal and deep-rooted way to connect with locals.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives for a '3-on-3 Challenge for Change' basketball game at Maple Crest Elementary School in Kokomo, Ind., Friday, April 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

Thursday, April 24, 2008

McCain and Clinton Not in Mud

In response to Bytwerk's comments, I looked at the search terms associated with Senator Clinton, Senator McCain and President Bush. Clearly, people are not searching for the level of dirt on Senators McCain and Clinton as they are for Senator Obama.




Free Public Advertising

I don't know if you saw Obama's speech Tuesday night, but there was some great public advertising on display. See the screenshot below (from NYTimes).

As you may notice, three guys directly behind Obama on the TV are wearing Ambercrombie & Fitch clothing. Product placement?


Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Guilt By Association With Obama

Barack Obama is now becoming a target of guilt-by-association (not just a recipient). The reception this ad receives will be a telling sign about how effective republicans can smear Obama for the fall. Stay tuned. This is an extremely important bell weather.

Here is the ad (view it on YouTube.com)

Obama Negative Fallout

The fallout from the negative attacks on Senator Obama is beginning to be felt. Notice the following terms that Yahoo suggests when users enter Barack Obama and Obama.


Clinton's Republican Style Victory

As I thought about how Hillary Clinton pulled out her impressive victory last night, I cannot help but conclude that she waged a republican "Karl Rove" style campaign.

  • She attacked Obama on values and culture.
    • E.g., All the attacks over the "bitter" comments and being elitist
  • She used fear of terrorism
    • In her Kitchen ad, she talked about the pressures of the presidency and the fear of terrorism

This is not a good sign for Barack Obama as there will certainly be more of this in the fall.

Clinton Media Coverage

In case you need any more evidence of how difficult of a path lays before Senator Clinton, see the following news stories:

Hillary PA Speech Analysis (A Good Speech)

On the whole, I think that Hillary delivered a good victory speech last night in PA (transcript).

  • She directly addressed the all important super delegates and the question of electability immediately.
    • "It's a long road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania."
  • She used John Edwards populist-fighting language to appeal to and strengthen her core consistency.
    • "I'm in this race to fight for you"
    • "And you deserve a champion who stands with you.
  • She sounded conciliatory
    • "This is a historic race. And I commend Senator Obama and his supporters tonight."
  • She tapped the feminist card
    • "We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an America that embraces every last one of us, the women in their 90s who tell me they were born before women could vote. And they're hopeful of seeing a woman in the White House. The mothers and fathers at my events who lift their little girls on their shoulders and whisper in their ears, 'See, you can be anything you want.'"
  • She made a fundraising request
    • "Now, we can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who outspends us so massively, so I hope you'll go to HillaryClinton.com"
  • She included a powerful narrative
    • "Not long ago -- not long ago, a woman handed me a photograph of her father as a young soldier. He was receiving the Medal of Honor from President Truman at the White House. During World War II, he had risked his life on a daring mission to drive back the enemy and protect his fellow soldiers. In the corner of that photo, in shaking handwriting, this American hero had simply written, "To Hillary Clinton, keep fighting for us."

Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Why Hillary Still Cannot Win

Although it looks like Hillary will win by about 10%, it is still not enough. She can continue fighting, but she cannot convince super delegates.

Why?
  • Hillary is under immense media pressure to quit. (see NYT editorial set to be published tomorrow).
  • Hillary must ask super delegates to overthrow Barack's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote. This is the fundamental problem: there is absolutely no way that super delegates are going to enrage countless new voters, blacks, and others by taking the nomination away from Obama. Only a huge margin of victory tonight could have done that--and 10% is not huge.

"Bitter" Fallout

I have been going through the exit polls and noticed the following question (source). I think that this is a reasonable indication that the "bitter" comments about guns etc. probably had some impact. Granted, voters who own guns were already supporting Clinton. Nonetheless, a 20% margin is quite large.



Do you or does someone else in your household own a gun?

Pct. of total Clinton Obama
36 Yes 60 40
64 No 48 52

Clinton Campaign Pulling Out All the Tricks

As if you needed any more evidence of how much is at stake in the primary fight in PA, I noted how the Clinton campaign is pulling out all the stops.

  • The Clinton campaign unveiled a new ad entitled "Kitchen" (view here). It is a very sharp attack ad that plays on fears of a terrorist attack and fears of Barack Obama's inexperience.
  • Bill Clinton accused the Obama campaign of playing the race card (source).
  • Hillary Clinton said that she "must win" PA (source). This is a pressure tactic designed to make voters feel the importance of going out and supporting her.
  • Clinton personally greeted lots of voters in front of a polling station in an effort to sway any undecided vote (source).

Monday, April 21, 2008

Tomorrow: The Beginning of the End for Clinton

Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for Clinton. She will win, but not by enough.
  • Her campaign is losing the race for remaining super delegates (source)
  • Her campaign is deeply in debt (source)
  • Her attempts to stop Obama with Rev. Wright and the "bitter" comments have failed. It is doubtful that anything she can throw at Obama will succeed in materially affecting things at this point.
  • Her candidacy MUST win the popular vote to have any say with the super delegates. Yet, it is looking increasingly more difficult to do this.
  • Democratic leaders, most notably Howard Dean, are increasingly exerting pressure on the superdelegates to end the protracted primary fight. This means that Senator Obama will probably gain more superdelegates. (source)

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Least Common Denominator Faith (Pt. 3)

In the next installment of the series on least-common-denominator faith in American politics, we examine some comments from Senator Barack Obama. (see transcript)

After reading Senator Obama's extended comments at the compassion forum, it is clear that he conceives of religion as primarily a force for social good. For examlpe, he spoke about "our obligations religiously, in terms of doing good works, and how does that inform our politics."

Later in his remarks to the compassion forum, he again reduced Christianity down to social transformation and linked this "core value" to "all great religions."
[Obama:] "And, you know, if I'm acting in an ethical way, if I am working to make sure that I am applying what I consider to be a core value of Christianity, but also a core value of all great religions, and that is that I am my brother's keeper and I am my sister's keeper, then I will be doing my part to move his agenda forward."

The same principle--faith is about social transformation--is on display in Senator Obama's explanation of how he came to become involved in church.
[Obama:] "So as I'm doing this [community] organizing, some of the pastors started saying, 'You know, you've got great ideas, Obama, but, you know, if you're going to organize churches, it might help if you were going to church.' And I thought, 'Well, that's not an unreasonable position.' And so I started visiting some churches. Trinity United Church of Christ was one of the churches that we were trying to get involved in the organization."

Finally, the same principle is on display when it comes to using the language of religion.
[Obama:] "What religious language can often do is allow us to get outside of ourselves and mobilize around a common good."

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Clinton's Sophistic Authenticity Problem

In tonight's Democratic debate (transcript here), one of the moderators asked the candidates whether the other could beat John McCain. Senator Obama was straight forward while Senator Clinton was not. This is a case-in-point that demonstrates Senator Clinton's problem.


MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me pick up on this. When these comments from Senator Obama broke on Friday, Senator McCain's campaign immediately said that it was going to be a killer issue in November.

Senator Clinton, when Bill Richardson called you to say he was endorsing Barack Obama, you told him that Senator Obama can't win. I'm not going to ask you about that conversation. I know you don't want to talk about it. But a simple yes-or-no question: Do you think Senator Obama can beat John McCain or not?

SEN. CLINTON: Well, I think we have to beat John McCain, and I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president and it's going to be either Barack or me. And we're going to make that happen.

And what is important is that we understand exactly the challenges facing us in order to defeat Senator McCain.

He will be a formidable candidate. There isn't any doubt about that. He has a great American story to tell. He's a man who has served our country with distinction over many years, but he has the wrong ideas about America. And those ideas will be tested in the cauldron of this campaign.

But I also know, having now gone through 16 years of being on the receiving end of what the Republican Party dishes out, how important it is that we try to go after every single vote everywhere we possibly can to get to those electoral votes that we're going to need to have the next president elected.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: But the question is, do you think Senator Obama can do that? Can he win?

SEN. CLINTON: Yes. Yes. Yes.

Now, I think that I can do a better job. (Laughter.) I mean, obviously, that's why I'm here. I think I am better able and better prepared in large measure because of what I've been through and the work that I've done and the results that I've produced for people and the coalition that I have put together in this campaign, that Charlie referred to earlier.

Obviously, I believe I would be the best president, or I would not still be here, standing on this stage, and I believe I'm the better and stronger candidate against Senator McCain, to go toe to toe with him on national security and on how we turn the economy around.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Obama, do yo think Senator Clinton can win?

SEN. OBAMA: Absolutely, and I've said so before. But I too think that I'm the better candidate. (Laughter.) And I don't think that surprises anybody.

Obama Finally Answers "Bitter" Comments With Flavor

For the first time that I am aware of, Senator Obama has responded to the "bitter" controversy in a way that meshed with his overall campaign (i.e., hope and change). In tonight's Democratic debate (transcript), he admitted that people are frustrated and concerned (hence his "bitter comments"). But, instead of leaving it at this, he emphasized that he is the man to elevate the same old politics that have left voters discouraged and empty. (Notice the bolded portions).

SEN. OBAMA: So this i something that I've said before. It is something that I will repeat again. And yes, people are frustrated and angry about it, but what we're seeing in this election is the opportunity to break through that frustration. And that's what our campaign has been about, saying that if the American people get involved and engaged, then we are going to start seeing change. And that's what makes this election unique.

Deep Divide in Democratic Party

In analyzing the transcript from tonight's presidential debate between Senators Obama and Clinton, I noticed how deep the division has become. Consider the fact that each candidate seemed to utterly avoid the possibility of nominating the other as a VP candidate. (see transcript).

[Moderator: ]But pledge now that whichever one of you wins this contest, you'll take the other as your running mate, and that the other will agree if they lose, to take second place on the ticket.

So I put the question to both of you: Why not?

(Pause, laughter.)

Don't all speak at once. (Laughter.)

SEN. OBAMA: Well, I'm happy to start with a response. Look, this has been an extraordinary journey that both Senator Clinton and I have been on and a number of other able candidates. And I think very highly of Senator Clinton's record. But as I've said before, I think it's premature at this point for us to talk about who vice presidential candidates will be because we're still trying to determine who the nominee will be.

But one thing I'm absolutely certain of is that come August, when we're in Denver, the Democratic Party will come together, because we have no choice if we want to deliver on the promises that not only we've made but the founders made. We are seeing peoples' economic status slipping further and further behind. We've seen people who have not only lost their jobs but now are at risk of losing their homes.

We have a sharp contrast in terms of economic policies. John McCain wants to continue four more years of George Bush policies and, on the foreign policy front, wants to continue George Bush's foreign policy.

So I'm confident that both Senator Clinton's supporters and Senator Obama's supporters will be supporting the Democratic nominee when we start engaging in that general election.

MR. GIBSON: But Senator Clinton, Governor Cuomo made that suggestion because he's not so sure. And other Democrats are not so sure.

Just to quote from the Constitution again, "In every case," Article Two, Section One, "after the choice of the president, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the vice president."

If it was good enough in colonial times, why not in these times.

SEN. CLINTON: Well, Charlie, I'm going to do everything I possibly can to make sure that one of us takes the oath of office next January. I think that has to be the overriding goal, whatever we have to do.

Obviously we are still contesting to determine who will be the nominee. But once that is resolved, I think it is absolutely imperative that our entire party close ranks, that we become unified.

I will do everything to make sure that the people who supported me support our nominee.

I will go anywhere in the country to make the case. And I know that Barack feels the same way, because both of us have spent 15 months traveling our country. I have seen the damage of the Bush years. I've seen the extraordinary pain that people have suffered from because of the failed policies; you know, those who have held my hands who have lost sons or daughters in Iraq, and those who have lost sons or daughters because they didn't have health insurance.

And so, regardless of the differences there may be between us, and they are differences, they pale in comparison to the differences between us and Senator McCain.

So we will certainly do whatever is necessary to make sure that a Democrat is in the White House next January.



d

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Why Mitt Romney is a Flawed VP Candidate

With Mitt Romney passionately advocating for John McCain’s candidacy in cable TV interviews, traveling with to western states for McCain fundraisers, and campaigning in Pennsylvania for Senator McCain, it appears that the McCain camp is testing the waters of a Romney vice presidential nomination. Although Mitt Romney would bring advantages to McCain’s candidacy, Romney remains a deeply flawed vice presidential candidate because he lacks a consistent conservative track record, fails to energize conservative voters, epitomizes the “say-anything-to-get-elected” politician, and lacks support amongst values voters.

The most problematic aspect of Mitt Romney as the vice presidential nominee is the fact that he is running as a republican. Yet, Romney’s history is marred by a slew of liberal positions he vehemently espoused while campaigning in the 1990s in Massachusetts. For example, Romney once asserted that he would be a more vocal proponent of the gay agenda than far-left Senator Edward Kennedy.[1] Similarly, in his debate xyz woman, Romney vehemently contended that he was not a pro-life candidate or a friend of social conservatives. With it comes to gun rights and other conservative issues, Romney passionately repudiated conservatism during his Massachusetts campaigns. As a vice presidential candidate, Romney will be in an extremely difficult position. He can either revert back to parts of his past in an attempt to connect with independents and Democrats and thereby alienate conservative voters or he can provide Democrats and hard-line conservatives with a limitless video real of quotes espousing positions antithetical to classical conservatism. Either way, Romney is a liability to John McCain.

The second problem with Mitt Romney as a vice presidential nominee is his failure to energize the base. Despite Mitt Romney’s expensive and repeated attempts to portray himself as the heir of Ronald Regan—whom, he impugned while campaigning during the 1990s—and staunch defender of conservative ideals, Romney utterly failed in convincing conservative voters in primaries. For example, in Iowa and South Carolina, exit-polls showed that Romney lost heavily amongst voters who described themselves as very conservative or somewhat conservative.[2] When it came to garnering support from key grass roots Republicans, Romney failed there too. The fiscally conservative Club for Growth said Romney’s economic record contained some “troublesome positions that beg to be explained” while the socially conservative Pat Robertson inexplicably endorsed Rudi Giuliani and national security conservatives like Liz Cheney endorsed Fred Thompson.

The third problem with Romney is that he epitomizes the classic politician who will say anything to win an election. His never-ending slew of spin, sophistry, and non-sequiturs raised countless doubts about his authenticity. For example, in Romney’s much-anticipated speech of faith in America, he said, “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King.”[3] When confronted with the fact that his father never marched with Dr. King, Romney entered the sophistry hall of fame by saying, “If you look at the literature, if you look at the dictionary, the term 'saw' includes being aware of in the sense I've described. It's a figure of speech and very familiar, and it's very common. And I saw my dad march with Martin Luther King. I did not see it with my own eyes, but I saw him in the sense of being aware of his participation in that great effort.”[4] This type of rhetorical gymnastic is familiar and common? Rather, it is this type of insincere “say-anything” attitude cost Romney dearly in republican primaries. In Iowa, exit-polls showed that voters who said the most important candidate quality was “saying what you believe” overwhelming opposed Romney.[5] The same dynamic played out in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

A final problem with Romney as the vice presidential nominee is his lack of support amongst social conservatives and values voters. In a television and YouTube age, he cannot escape his repeated and emphatic support of abortion and gay marriage while campaigning in Massachusetts during the 1990s. Given the large and important role that social conservatives play in the Republican Party, it is absolutely essential that these voters feel energized and enthusiastic. Mitt Romney is not a vice presidential nominee that engenders strong support. Mitt Romney is flawed.

How (Bill) Clinton Lost the 2008 Presidential Campaign

What in the world was Bill Clinton thinking on April 10 when he brought up Hillary Clinton’s “misstatement” about landing under sniper fire in Bosnia? Just when the issue that cost Senator Clinton at least five points in the polls evaporated from the pages of newspapers and the consciousness of voters, Bill Clinton revived it. Even worse, the former president himself “misstated” half a dozen facts about Hillary’s trip and recollection of it. If last Thursday’s incident was the first time Bill damaged his wife’s campaign for president, it would be one thing. However, this is yet another page in an ever-growing book. Looking back at President Clinton’s influence on his wife’s campaign and on Al Gore’s 2000 campaign, it is becoming clear that Bill Clinton’s large personality and loose tongue overshadow and damage the presidential campaigns of others. The reason why Hillary is a national candidate in the first place is also the reason why she will not win.

In October, November, and early December, dozens of polls showed that Hillary Clinton held a strong lead over Barack Obama in South Carolina. Even after Senator Obama’s upset victory in Iowa on January 3, the race in the Palmetto State remained close.[1] The downward spiral began when some African-Americans rightly took offense at Bill Clinton’s charge in New Hampshire that Senator Obama and his claims were “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.” Things deteriorated precipitously in mid-January when Hillary left South Carolina to Bill in order to campaign for the February 5 Super-Tuesday states. Instead of championing Hillary’s policies and trying to avoid media coverage that distracted from Senator Clinton’s candidacy, Bill made himself the center of attention by repeatedly attacking Barack Obama and the media in ways that many interpreted as racially-charged.

Speaking to a reporter on January 23, the red-faced finger-wagging former president said that the Obama campaign and its surrogates are “feeding” the media racially-controversial stories “because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for…. And the Obama people know that. So they just spin you up on this and you happily go along…shame on you.”[2] When these comments emerged, they eclipsed any coverage of Hillary or her policies for a few days. Sadly, this same theme played out repeatedly in the days running up to the South Carolina primary.

Bill, along with Hillary surrogates such as New York Congressman Charles Rangel and BET Founder Robert Johnson, repeatedly poured gasoline on the fire of a racially-charged controversy stemming from a comment that Senator Clinton made that seemed dismissive of the Martin Luther King’s work and legacy. These incendiary comments drew fire from prominent blacks such as Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton.[3] As if Bill had not yet inflamed racial tensions enough, on election day, when polls showed Senator Obama would win, the former president added a final comment that solidified the anger in the African-American community toward the Clintons. With a smirk on his face, Bill Clinton responded to a reporter’s question about why Senator Obama won by saying in a demeaning tone, “Jessie Jackson won South Carolina twice in 84 and 88.” The clear implication of this statement is that Barack Obama is the Jessie Jackson of the 2008 presidential campaign—a fringe candidate whose primary appeal is limited to racial factors. As a result of Bill Clinton’s overshadowing personality and under-disciplined mouth, Senator Obama racked up a near 30% margin of victory. This defeat marked only the beginning of the problems that Bill Clinton unleashed on his wife’s candidacy.

First, the landslide defeat in South Carolina gave Senator Obama the crucial momentum he needed to win 10 consecutive states, shattering Senator Clinton’s aura of inevitability and overtaking Senator Clinton’s delegate lead. Second, the irreparable damage done by Bill Clinton to the African-American community’s support for Senator Clinton stood out as the most significant long-term damage Bill’s campaign rhetoric and strategy in South Carolina had. In the Palmetto State, 78% of blacks voted for Senator Obama. In Georgia’s February 5 primary, Bill Clinton clearly played a role in Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic voters with a somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, and strongly unfavorable opinion of Bill Clinton voted by a nearly 4-to-1 margin for Senator Obama.[4] Similarly, in Maryland’s February 12 primary, 84% of blacks voted for Senator Obama.[5]

Third, the way Bill Clinton’s attacks on Senator Obama injected race into the primary angered many super delegates, causing them to break their silence and endorse Senator Obama. For example, Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts reportedly endorsed Senator Obama after Kennedy repeatedly expressed frustration with Bill Clinton’s more aggressive campaign rhetoric. The slew of super delegate endorsements that came after Kennedy’s severely undercut the argument that Hillary enjoyed the support of the party establishment, who ostensibly saw her as the established candidate.

While Bill Clinton made a great politician when it came to campaigning for himself, he is making a terrible campaigner when it comes to campaigning for her husband.

Least Common Denominator Faith (Pt. 2)

In the second part of this commentary on least-common-denominator faith in America, we continue to examine how faith in America has become so diluted that it does not resemble orthodox Christianity. What has happened is the same labels and terms are being used, yet radically different meanings are being poured into them.

The following quotes are based upon a transcript of the Compassion Forum.

MEACHAM: Senator, we've heard about HIV/AIDS. Many people here are concerned about Darfur and a number of other humanitarian issues. Why do you think it is that a loving God allows innocent people to suffer?

CLINTON: Well...

(LAUGHTER)
...
CLINTON: And it's always been curious to me how our debate about religion in America too often misses that. You know, his holiness, the pope, is going to be coming to America next week, and he's been a strong voice on behalf of what we must do to deal with poverty, and deal with injustice, and deal with what is truly our obligations toward those who are the least among us.

So maybe, you know, the lord is just waiting for us to respond to his call, because this despair, this impoverishment of body and soul is what we are expected to be spending our time responding to, and so few of us do (emphasis added).
In this quote, we see two absolutely fascinating insights into Senator Clinton's theological views: (1) Evil occurs because "the lord is just waiting for us to respond to his call." In other words, it lies within the human capacity to perfect the world. In historic Christian orthodoxy of all forms (except strong Pelagianism, which is not orthodoxy and has been condemned by both Catholics and Protestants since the time of Augustine and the Council of Orange in 529), human kind is depraved. (2) God is the clockmaker God. He set up the world and sits back, "just waiting for us to respond."

Least Common Denominator Faith

In a recent interview at the Compassion Forum (view transcript here), Senators Clinton and Obama made explicitly religious comments in a way that I do not believe they have ever done before. Certainly, this is ground-breaking territory for liberals.

What I find fascinating is how our culture is becoming increasingly populated with a very mild least-common-denominator religion that passes for orthodoxy. This is not just occurring amongst liberals. The President has repeatedly made least common denominator religion comments.

When I read the transcript from the Compassion Forum, I had just finished reading another chapter in J. Gresham Machen's 1920s book Christianity and Liberalism. Machen's book is his controversial thesis that the liberal theology of the 1920s, which bears so many similarities with the least-common-denominator today, is not Christianity. Machen's book proved so controversial that it led to his expulsion from Princeton Seminary. Caught between the liberals and the fundamentalists, Machen, a reformed Presbyterian pastor, predicted that the least-common-denominator faith would sink orthodox Christianity. Personally, I think Machen is right.

Returning to the Compassion Forum and evidence of least-common-denominator faith and its place in American politics in the 21st century, some excerpts and comments below:

CLINTON: You know, I have, ever since I've been a little girl, felt the presence of God in my life. And it has been a gift of grace that has, for me, been incredibly sustaining. But, really, ever since I was a child, I have felt the enveloping support and love of God and I have had the experiences on many, many occasions where I felt like the holy spirit was there with me as I made a journey.

It didn't have to be a hard time. You know, it could be taking a walk in the woods. It could be watching a sunset.

In this comment, Senator Clinton reduces the Holy Spirit to a graceful, nebulous, and inspiring force that warms the heart of humans. No mention of the Holy Spirit within the context of conviction, sin, or redemption.

The clearest insight into Senator Clinton's least common denominator faith came in response to a question from Newsweek editor John Meacham.

CLINTON: But I also believe that, you know, faith is just -- it's grace. It's love. It's mystery. It's provocation. It is everything that makes life and its purpose meaningful as a human being.
Once again, we see a non-sectarian, nebulous, and vague religion.

Monday, April 14, 2008

Party Like it 1999

I recently saw the following ad from the Republican Senate Committee. Although I am not entirely sure how effective the ad will be, it is absolutely hilarious.

View ad here.


Points From This Ad
  • As is increasingly the case today, the politics of personality loom much larger than the politics of policy.
  • Humor. This ad very effectively uses humor to make a point (i.e., John Kerry is out of style).
  • Pop-Culture. This ad appeals to voters who know little about politics but know a lot about pop-culture. However, one wonders about the efficacy of an ad that plays on this type of pop-culture in Massachusetts.
  • No republican candidate is mentioned. This may be because one is not yet nominated via a primary. Or, it may be because the ad is so negative that the sponsors do not want to implicate a republican candidate in it.

Obama Scores Big with Voter Registration

In early April, Barack Obama's campaign announced a very creative way to persuade young voters to register their friends to vote. This effort, like many others, taps into personal persuasion strategies instead of detailed, cerebral, and academic strategies.

From the Obama campaign website (source):

As an Indiana high school student, you have a chance to play 3-on-3 basketball with Barack Obama! You just need to reach out to your friends and register fellow students at your high school to vote.

Indiana's voter registration deadline is coming up, and anyone who wishes to vote in the Democratic primary and support Barack must be registered by April 7th.

No prior experience is needed. It's easy. Just sign up, download registration forms, and start registering students at your high school to vote.* In order to qualify to play 3-on-3 with Barack, all registration forms must be turned in by April 6th at your local Obama office and you must register at least 20 high school students.

*You must be 18 by November 4th, 2008 in order to vote in the Indiana Primary on May 6th, 2008. That means most high school seniors can be registered to vote.

Clinton Drunk on Pandering

One of the most important parts of persuading people in our highlight-clip culture that is dominated by personality instead of positions is resonating with voters. It is so important that the voters establish some link of commonality with the candidate. Whether it was the comic/cowboy in George Bush or the happy-meal diet in Bill Clinton, a candidate must connect with voters.

Senator Hillary Clinton took pandering to the extreme on Saturday (April 12) when she stopped at a bar to be photographed taking a drink with the every-day people.

As evidence of how fake the entire stop was, notice in the photo below how the couple sitting to the right are totally disinterested in the fact that Senator Clinton is present.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., raises her mug of beer in a toast with Hammond, Ind., Mayor Tom McDermott, left, as she stops at the bar during a campaign stop at Bronko's restaurant in Crown Point, Ind., Saturday, April 12, 2008. Ed and Patty Hall are seated right. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)" (source)