Sunday, March 9, 2008

To Smear or Not to Smear, That is the Question

As I analyzed the editorial pages of the major newspapers and watched the political pundits, I could not help but notice a major division amongst so-called experts. Reflecting on the advice given to Senator Obama after his losses in Texas and Ohio, it appears to me that he is at a significant crossroad in his campaign: will he turn "negative" and attack Senator Clinton with the intensity that she has (apparently successfully) attacked him? I am reminded of Hamlet's famous words, which could be adapted:
To smear, or not to smear: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the campaign to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous attacks,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?
Let me begin this section of the blog post by giving you an idea about how divided pundits are. In a March 9 op-ed in the New York Times, Maureen Dowd wrote:

After losing Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and his mojo, and getting whipsawed around by Hillary and his own chuckleheaded coterie of advisers, he will now have to come to grips with something he has always skittered away from: You can’t be elected president unless you prove you’re tough.

However, in a March 8 op-ed in the New York Times, David Brooks wrote:

Barack Obama had a theory. It was that the voters are tired of the partisan paralysis of the past 20 years. The theory was that if Obama could inspire a grass-roots movement with a new kind of leadership, he could ride it to the White House and end gridlock in Washington.
...

Now, the Obama campaign is facing another test. There are a few ways to interpret the losses in Texas and Ohio. One is demographic. He didn’t carry the groups he often has trouble with — white women, Latinos, the less educated. The other is tactical. Clinton attacked him, and the attacks worked.

The consultants, needless to say, gravitate toward the tactical interpretation. And once again the cry has gone up for Obama to get tough. This advice gets wrapped in metaphors. Obama has to start “throwing punches” or “taking the gloves off.”

Beneath the euphemisms, what the advice really means is that Obama has to start accusing Clinton of things.

This time, Obama, whose competitive juices are flowing, has apparently accepted the advice. The Obama campaign is now making a big issue of Hillary Clinton’s tax returns and dropping hints about donations to President Clinton’s library and her secret White House papers. It’s willing to launch an ethics assault. “If Senator Clinton wants to take the debate to various places, we’ll join that debate,” the Obama strategist David Axelrod told reporters the other day.

...

In short, a candidate should never betray the core theory of his campaign, or head down a road that leads to that betrayal. Barack Obama doesn’t have an impressive record of experience or a unique policy profile. New politics is all he’s got. He loses that, and he loses everything. Every day that he looks conventional is a bad day for him.

Besides, the real softness of the campaign is not that Obama is a wimp. It’s that he has never explained how this new politics would actually produce bread-and-butter benefits to people in places like Youngstown and Altoona.

If he can’t explain that, he’s going to lose at some point anyway.

So, what strategy would be more persuasive? Personally, I feel that Brooks' argument is far more persuasive. Although I have previously argued that attack are effective--a position I still hold--Barack Obama cannot damage his most valuable asset, which is his claim that he will bring a new kind of politics to America. Nonetheless, I do not believe that this is an either/or decision. By using surrogates, the Obama campaign can effectively cast doubt on Senator Clinton. Moreover, Senator Obama is still strongly in the lead, so why dirty himself attacking someone who will eventually be defeated anyway? Brooks hit the nail on the head when he said, "In short, a candidate should never betray the core theory of his campaign, or head down a road that leads to that betrayal. Barack Obama doesn’t have an impressive record of experience or a unique policy profile. New politics is all he’s got. He loses that, and he loses everything."

Delegates vs. Momentum

As I looked at Barack Obama's website this morning, I noticed a headline reading "Obama Wins Wyoming, Pads Delegate Lead" (source). Although the Obama campaign did not write the entirety of this story, I was nonetheless struck by the emphasis on momentum in this election.

For example, the title of the article read "Pads Delegate Lead." However, according to an AP story, "Obama won seven delegates and Clinton won five." Given that each candidate has around 1500 delegates, 2 delegates represents about 0.133% of each candidate's delegate count. Yet, you would never know this from the campaign's PR offensive.

Similarly, last Tuesday, the Clinton spin machine succeeded in convincing the American people that Clinton scored a major victory. However, Clinton and Obama split the delegates in Texas, Clinton gained 9 in Ohio, Clinton gained 4 in Rhode Island, and Obama gained 3 in Vermont (source). This means that Clinton gained 10 delegates overall--hardly a large number considering both candidates now stand at about 1500.

Saturday, March 8, 2008

Obama and the Use of Stories

In a previous post, I remark on Hillary Clinton's recent decision to begin using vignettes in her speeches to provide a powerful personal emotional appeal to voters. In that post, I pointed out that Senator Obama has been using this persuasive technique for a while.

In Barack's remarks on January 3, after winning the Iowa cacus, he used the following personal stories:

  • Hope is what I saw in the eyes of the young woman in Cedar Rapids who works the night shift after a full day of college and still can't afford health care for a sister who's ill. A young woman who still believes that this country will give her the chance to live out her dreams.

    Hope is what I heard in the voice of the New Hampshire woman who told me that she hasn't been able to breathe since her nephew left for Iraq. Who still goes to bed each night praying for his safe return.

In Barack's remarks on January 26, after winning the South Carolina primary, he used the following personal stories:
  • Theirs are the stories and voices we carry on from South Carolina. The mother who can't get Medicaid to cover all the needs of her sick child. She needs us to pass a health care plan that cuts costs and makes health care available and affordable for every single American. That's what she's looking for.

    The teacher who works another shift at Dunkin' Donuts after school just to make ends meet, she needs us to reform our education system so that she gets better pay and more support and her students get the resources that they need to achieve their dreams.

    The Maytag worker who's now competing with his own teenager for a $7 an hour job at the local Wal-Mart, because the factory he gave his life to shut its doors, he needs us to stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship our jobs overseas and start putting them in the pockets of working Americans who deserve it and put them in the pockets of struggling homeowners who are having a tough time and looking after seniors who should retire with dignity and respect.

    That woman who told me that she hasn't been able to breathe since the day her nephew left for Iraq or the soldier who doesn't know his child because he's on his third or fourth or even fifth tour of duty, they need us to come together and put an end to a war that should have never been authorized and should have never been waged.

  • But here is what I know. I know that when people say we can't overcome all the big money and influence in Washington, I think of that elderly woman who sent me a contribution the other day, an envelope that had a money order for $3.01 along with a verse of scripture tucked inside the envelope. So don't tell us change isn't possible. That woman knows change is possible.

    When I hear the cynical talk that blacks and whites and Latinos can't join together and work together, I'm reminded of the Latino brothers and sisters I organized with and stood with and fought with side by side for jobs and justice on the streets of Chicago. So don't tell us change can't happen.

    When I hear that we'll never overcome the racial divide in our politics, I think about that Republican woman who used to work for Strom Thurmond, who is now devoted to educating inner city-children and who went out into the streets of South Carolina and knocked on doors for this campaign. Don't tell me we can't change.

Clinton and the Use of Stories

As I watched Hillary Clinton's victory remarks in Ohio last Tuesday evening, I was struck by the fact that she has finally begun telling short stories in her speeches. Senator Obama has been doing this and it is high time that Hillary employed the persuasive power of a vignette.

In Hillary's January 3, 2008 remarks after finishing 3rd in Iowa, Hillary failed to mention any sort of personal story (either from her own life or from the life of a supporter).

In Hillary's January 8, 2008 remarks after winning New Hampshire, Hillary failed to mention any sort of personal story (either from her own life or from the life of a supporter).

In Hillary's February 5, 2008 remarks after Super Tuesday, Hillary failed to mention any sort of personal story (either from her own life or from the life of a supporter).

However, in Hillary's March 4, 2008 remarks after winning Texas and Ohio, Hillary finally begun using personal stories:
  • For more than a year, I’ve been listening to the voices of people across our country. The single mom who told me she works two jobs; neither provides health care for her kids. She just can't work any harder. The little girl who asked how I helped people without homes - turns out her family was about to lose their own. The young man in a Marine Corps shirt who said he waited months for medical care. He said to me, "take care of my buddies, a lot of them are still over there. And then, will you please help take care of me?"
  • I want to end by sharing with you a message that I got late last month from someone who didn't have much money to spare, but sent me $10 for my campaign and sent an e-mail in which she wrote: "My two daughters are two and four, and we chant and cheer for you at every speech we see. I want them to know anything is possible." Tonight I say to them, keep on watching. Together, we're going to make history. To those little girls, I say this is America, and we do believe you can be anything you want to be, and we want our sons and our daughters to dream big. I have big dreams for America’s future. The question is not whether we can fulfill those dreams, it's whether we will. And here's our answer: yes, we will.

Friday, March 7, 2008

Persuasive Ad Analysis - Clinton "Partner"

On March 3, Hillary Clinton launched an economic ad targeting Ohio.

View the ad here at YouTube.con

Below is the transcript of the ad (source).

TITLE: "Partner"

LENGTH: 30 seconds

AIRING: Ohio

SCRIPT: Clinton: "I have talked with people from Cincinnati to Dayton to Parma."

Man 1: "The economy in this part of the state is terrible."

Man 2: "We need a leader who cares about the people."

Clinton: "It's time that the American worker had a partner in the White House."

Woman 1: "She's going to bring jobs back here to Ohio."

Man 3: "And fight for working families here in the United States of America."

Man 1: "Hillary Clinton can turn this country around."

Clinton: "The wealthy and the well-connected have had a president. It's time the middle class had a president, who will stand up for you."

Clinton: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message."



Why This Ad is Persuasive?
  • It is on Topic
    • The ad directly addresses Ohio's struggling economy, which was the number one issue in Ohio (see analysis section here). No political ad can be effective, regardless of how well scripted and emotionally appealing, if it does not strike on a point of similarity with viewers.
  • It Features Target Voters
    • Unlike Hillary's Texas ads, which focused on national security and/or featured Hispanics, this ad features working class white individuals. This was precisely the audience that Hillary disparately needed to reach in order to win. Consider the following screen shots, which show the individuals who spoke in the ad.




  • Features "Everyday" People
  • The Background Reinforces the Message
    • For example, the first "everyday" person says, "the economy in this part of the state is terrible." The background is, not coincidently, cloudy and rainy.

How the Ad Could Have Been More Persuasive
  • At the beginning, there is a screen shot of a man in a suit. This is not the target audience and does not fit well with the rest of the individuals featured in the ad.
  • Instead of wearing an expensive suit, Hillary should be shown in working class clothing to amplify the point that she understands and relates to the people.
  • Hillary's message here does not fit well with the fact that she loaned her campaign $5 million dollars, she will not release her tax returns, and her daughter works at a New York City hedge fund--a far cry from the working class jobs of Ohio.

Hillary vs. Barack Google Ads

As I was researching possible blog entries, I noticed an interesting aspect of the Clinton campaign's marketing strategy--no, I'm not talking about the use of online advertising, which is widespread. I was struck by the fact that Senator Clinton's official campaign ad on Google begins by saying "Help Make History!" while Senator Obama's official campaign ad on Google begins by saying "Help elect Barack Obama." What struck me the most is that Senator Clinton's campaign is playing to the "make history" argument while Senator Obama's campaign is not--and, of course, Senator Obama's campaign could as Senator Obama would be the first black President. (For what its worth, Senator McCain could do the same thing as he would be the oldest president ever, if elected). See below:



I believe that the "help make history" argument is rather weak in this election. I believe that people tend to vote for the candidate they: (a) like the most and (b) share general policy positions with. Even if a voter was somewhat drawn to the "make history" argument, as I pointed out earlier, whether you vote for McCain, Clinton, or Obama, you will make history.

Perhaps this is because I am a white man and every President and Vice-President in American history has been a white man. Nevertheless, I just cannot see people rallying around someone simply in order to make history. I admit that I have no evidence to back this up and the Clinton camp may have a poll that validates its strategy, but I thought I would offer this pithy comment for whatever it is worth.

Clinton and Third Person Speech

As I watched Hillary Clinton's victory speech on Tuesday night, I was struck by how often she uses the third person to speak to Americans. Personally, I feel that using "we" -- which is what Senator Obama often does -- would be more effective. It is more personal, communal, and addresses the listener directly. Consider the following (transcript):

  • "More and more people have joined this campaign and millions of Americans haven't spoken yet. In states like Pennsylvania and so many others people are watching this historic campaign, and they want their turn to help make history. They want their voices to count. And they should. They should be heard."
  • "Americans don't need more promises. They’ve heard plenty of speeches. They deserve solutions and they deserve them now."