Tuesday, January 29, 2008

A Victory in the Press Coverage Primary

After Hilary Clinton lost the coveted endorsement of Massachusetts Senator Edward Kennedy and the voters of South Carolina handed her (and her husband) a stinging rebuke, Senator Obama clearly gained the momentum in the race for the democratic nomination. Cable TV focused all day on the Kennedy endorsement and Clinton was clearly losing ground. Since media coverage is so important in forming perceptions and persuading the electorate, the Clinton campaign knew it needed to change the topic in the news. So, it reverted to an old trick: invent a story to change the topic.

The Clinton campaign did just this when Hillary announced she would hold a rally in Florida to celebrate what polls showed would be a certain victory in the state. Her campaign put out a flurry of press releases to emphasize the victory:

"By a nearly 17 point margin, Hillary won the highest turnout Democratic primary in the state’s history. More than 1.5 million Democrats voted – more than cast votes in Iowa, Nevada, South Carolina, and New Hampshire combined" (source).

In another memo entitled "A Significant Victory in Florida", Clinton's chief strategist said:
"A large, broad, and diverse group of voters came out and voted for Hillary in Florida." (source).

In Clinton's victory speech, she said, "So thank you, thank you for this tremendous victory tonight." (source).

But let's step back and unspin the political rhetoric. The democratic candidates pledged to not campaign in Florida when the state defied party rules and moved up its primary. The democratic party decided that no Florida delegates would be seated at the convention in Denver. So, the election gets Hilary no closer to procuring the delegates she needs to be nominated. In this sense, the Florida democratic primary is meaningless. Moreover, Clinton faced no opponent since the candidates agreed not to campaign in Florida. How can Mrs. Clinton declare victory without an opponent? How can Mrs. Clinton present the aura that voters believe that she is the candidate best suited to bring about change when she never aired one TV add in the state or delivered one stump speech to a Floridian? Yet these facts did not stop Clinton from creating a buzz with her actions.

In fact, the Clinton strategy worked. The cable networks all covered Clinton's remarks live and the pundits stopped talking about the Kennedy endorsement and began talking about Mrs. Clinton's pledge to "do everything I can to make sure not only are Florida’s Democratic delegates seated," a move that will no doubt evoke a bitter response from the Obama campaign (that's part of the scheme--get the Obama campaign mad and off message). Clinton compounded her media blitz by interviewing live with most of the major cable news outlets.

Although Senator Clinton did not score a meaningful victory in the Florida Democratic primary. she did score a victory in the crucial press coverage primary.

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