Politics Unspun

The Obama's Fist Pound

2008-06-04T16:21:00.000-07:00

This picture says it all...

"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama bumps fists with his wife Michelle before his speech at his South Dakota and Montana presidential primary election night rally in St. Paul, Minnesota June 3, 2008. (Eric Miller/Reuters)" (source)

Obama and the Foreign Press

2008-06-03T19:49:00.000-07:00

It is 10:55pm EST and I'm watching Senator Obama shake hands with people after his speech live on MSNBC. Nonetheless, look at the news papers from the foreign press. They have already put Senator Obama on the front page of their website.

Bobby Jindal VP Stump Speech Tryout

2008-06-03T17:40:00.000-07:00

Did you see Bobby Jindal "happen" to introduce Senator McCain and give a 3 minute stump speech supporting McCain on prime time TV at about 8:30pm EST? I have to suspect that Senator McCain's campaign is trying to feel out Jindal's political prowess on a national scale.

I give the McCain credit for capitalizing on a large national prime time TV audience that is certainly filled with democrats wanting to watch Senator Obama's speech.

Fox and NBC/MSNBC in War

2008-06-01T08:39:00.001-07:00

I was watching the O'Reilly factor on May 29, 2008 and listened to Bill O'Reilly rant on MSNBC/NBC and its supposedly unfair and biased coverage favoring Senator Obama. Although O'Reilly is definitely not the gold standard for fair journalism, I post about this because it is a new dimension of today's media--fighting about fairness and bias within the media. No longer is it political pundits complaining about media coverage, now the media personalities themselves analyze and criticize other networks. View O'Reilly's complaint here (short version) and here (longer version).

View more here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Senator Obama: When will you finally visit Iraq?

2008-06-01T07:26:00.000-07:00

I recently saw the following PAC ad attacking Senator Obama about his Iraq policy and failure to visit Iraq (view here at YouTube). This ad dovetails with Senator McCain's attacks on Senator Obama for his failure to visit Iraq and acknowledge the progress made.

Why This Ad is Effective

It does not feel like a typical attack ad.

Between the music and soft voice, the ad does not engender the feelings of a typical attack ad with dark colors, deep music, and slashing commentary.

It inspires/plays on patriotism.
It uses Senator Obama's own words against him.

The subtle reasoning is that if Senator Obama will meet "one-on-one unconditionally" with Iran, why won't he meet under similar circumstances with American troops in Iraq.

It uses a veteran.

This ads credibility and makes it more difficult to attack the source of the ad.

It plays on the perception of Senator Obama's foreign policy weakness.

One of the Best Speeches of This Campaign

2008-05-25T20:37:00.000-07:00

I recently re-watched Barack Obama's speech in Iowa in which he essentially celebrated his primary nomination by thanking the people who made his campaign possible--the voters of Iowa who catapulted him to a national candidacy that could overcome the inevitable.

The speech is available here on YouTube and here as a transcript.

To get an idea of the enthusiasm and the passion of the crowd and of Senator Obama, begin watching at 17 minutes.

Why This Speech is Effective

Senator Obama thanked the people who made his candidacy possible

It is far too rare for politicians to go back to their base and thank the people who made their candidacy possible. Senator Obama was extremely smart to do this.

Senator Obama is subtly reminding the country that he is popular in "white America"

By holding an event in a largely white state that he won, he is trying to counter the idea that he cannot win white votes

Senator Obama is extremely gracious to Senator Clinton
Senator Obama stays on message

Emphasis on hope and change
Subtle attacks against John McCain, who is linked to George Bush

My final comment is that I struggle to imagine how Senator McCain can win in the fall with an orator like this as an opponent and a crowd that is this excited. (I still think it is possible since democrats seem to specialize in loosing elections).

Democratic Establishment Turns on Clinton

2008-05-24T08:21:00.000-07:00

As I've been monitoring the news commentaries, I've noticed how the democratic party and its news outlets (MSNBC, New York Times, Daily Kos, Huffington Post) have turned against Senator Clinton.

In the past few days, the following storied have been published:

Keith Olberman absolutely exploded in his "special comments" against Senator Clinton last night (May 23, 2008). (see here)
Daily Kos (here)
New York Times (here)
MSNBC (Florida coverage)
MSNBC (Chris Matthews almost cries over thought of Senator Obama loosing; here)

Notice the following comments that the Clinton campaign/etc. has made about the biased news coverage:

Terry McAuliffe Says Chris Matthews is pro-Obama (here; this is an absolutely blistering on-air critique of Chris Matthews--wait until the end of the interview for the comments)
Joe Scarborough on MSNBC news bias (here)
About Keith Olberman (here)
Even CNN noted it (here)
Fox News slams MSNBC (here)
As early as May 2007, Fox attacks MSNBC (here)
Hillary, Bill, and Lanny Davis on Fox (here)
Terry Mcauliffe on MSNBC (here)
Terry Mcauliffe on Fox News congratulating the network (here)
Terry McAuliffe slams NYT (here)

Bobby Jindal: A Bright Future for the Republican Party

2008-05-23T20:46:00.001-07:00

I've spent quite a bit of time tonight looking at Bobby Jindal's history (if you don't know much about him see wikipedia here).

I looked at a number of his 2007 gubernatorial campaign ads and the one that stood out to me was War on Corruption. This ad epitomized the essence of his candidacy and shared many similarities to Senator Obama's.
Here is Why I Think Jindal Has Tremendous Potential:

He is Youthful

Jindal has the aura of someone with youth and vigor--something that people like John McCain lack.

He is Not a WASP

This seems to be a hot commodity in American politics (see all the energy about Senator Obama's and Clinton's candidacy--Clinton is a WASP, but not a man).

He Inspires

His message of a new beginning for Louisiana carried the day. His speeches are inspiring (although not quite at the level of Senator Obama). Moreover, unlike Senator Obama, Jindal is better able to connect to working class voters.

He Endured Scathing Political Attack Ads

If you think you've seen it all in the form of attack ads, see this. I watched a lot of nasty attack ads for the Louisiana governor's race, but this one takes the cake. I believe that Jindal's ability to take this type of rough and tumble attack and still win is a strong asset and a good predictor of his ability to weather attacks.

He Knows His Policy

I watched Governor Jindal about 3 weeks ago at the DC Press club on CSPAN taking questions from guests and Jindal spoke with a clear knowledge of the issues.

Republican VP Nominee Analysis

2008-05-23T20:11:00.000-07:00

With John McCain effectively holding interviews for the VP spot this weekend, I thought I would size up the republican VP selection process and analyze the possible candidates (source). This is extremely speculative and subjective, but I thought I would post anyway.

Mitt Romney
Pros:

Business Experience

Mitt Romney conveys the image of someone who is a business leader. This helped him win the Michigan primary. His experience at Bain Capital and the Sault Lake Olympics are important stories to tell.
In a year where the economy is a big issue, this is an important talking point for the McCain campaign.

Money

With republicans having trouble raising money, Mitt Romney's personal fortune (estimated to be about $250 million) and his ability to raise money in the business community is a strong asset.

Energetic Campaigner

Mitt Romney campaigned with energy and vigor, something that Fred Thompson and others lacked.

Great Debater

Romney and Mike Huckabee were the best debtors on the republican side.

Energized Base

Fiscal conservatives and Mormons will show up to vote for Romney.

Good Attacker

Romney has appeared on television on behalf of the McCain campaign a number of times since dropping out of the race and has launched scathing and effective attacks against Senator Obama. This is an important role for the VP and McCain needs someone comfortable attacking.

Cons:

Liberal Social Record

This is a big problem for social conservatives, who are already leery of John McCain and his "agents of intolerance" view of some evangelicals.

Not Liked by Social Conservatives

This is interconnected to the above issue.

Will Not Add States to Electoral College

Romney will be unlikely to deliver any states that John McCain could not have won without him.

Bobby Jindal
Pros:

Young

Jindal is 36 years of age and brings lots of vigor to the campaign

Not A WASP

Jindal converted from Hinduism to Catholicism as a teenager. He is the son of Indian immigrants.

Socially Conservative

Jindal is a strong social conservative who won lots of Catholics in Louisiana.

Cons:

Inexperienced

Americans may be hesitant to accept the possibility of a 36 year old man with 2 years as Governor of Louisiana and 2 years before that as a U.S. Representative.

Not Presidential Looking

He does not have the aura of a president (yet). (Personally, I think Jindal is one of the brightest future stars of the Republican party).

Mike Huckabee
Pros:

Great Debater

Huckabee came to prominence as he turned in one great debate performance after another.

Great Public Speaker

Huckabee often speaks extemporaneously and is extremely effective. I know the woman who managed his campaign in a crucial early state and she told me that he had no real speech writer and gave some important speeches with little in the way of prepared remarks.

Connects Well With Rural Voters

With Barack Obama having troubles connecting with working class white voters, Mike Huckabee could very well peal some Democrats off. He is extremely effective connecting with these individuals and appearing as the "everyday" candidate.

Brings Many Evangelicals

Huckabee surged to a national candidate on the backs of evangelicals in Iowa.

Cons:

Seen As Fringe Religious Candidate (by Many)

Huckabee's strength was his weakness. Many in the media despised his connection with evangelicals and portrayed him as the "preacher" candidate.

Despised by Fiscal Conservatives

Huckabee raised taxes considerably in Arkansas and was the subject of blistering negative ads by the conservative Club for Growth.

Huge Obama Crowd

2008-05-19T16:15:00.000-07:00

Senator Obama recently held a rally in Oregon with a mammoth crowd. An astonishing 75,000 people attended his rally.

From the Washington Post:

PORTLAND, Ore. -- Sen. Barack Obama has seen his share of large crowds over the past 15 months, but his campaign said they have not approached the numbers gathered along the waterfront here right now.
The campaign, citing figures from Duane Bray, battalion chief of Portland Fire & Rescue, estimated that 75,000 people are watching him speak.

The scene suggests this is not an exaggeration. The sea of heads stretches for half a mile along the grassy embankment, while others watch from kayaks and power boats bobbing on the Willamette River. More hug the rails of the steel bridge that stretches across the water and crowds are even watching from jetties on the opposite shore.

(Source: Washington Post blog)

Look at the number of boats that pulled up to listen to Senator Obama.
(From Time.com)

Timing of Edwards Endorsement

2008-05-14T16:41:00.001-07:00

Was it just a coincidence that the Obama's campaign scheduled John Edward's endorsement for 6:30pm on a day when Senator Clinton had interviews with all the major nightly news programs (which show at 6:30pm)? Was it just a coincidence that the Obama campaign scheduled John Edward's endorsement for the day after Hillary Clinton's landslide victory over Senator Obama?

Elections are all about momentum and managing news. Senator Obama's campaign gets an A+ for blunting the momentum of Senator Clinton's landslide victory last night by scheduling an endorsement that will make news and wash out the news of Clinton's landslide victory.

Obama and Local News

2008-05-14T16:35:00.001-07:00

Senator Obama's campaign rally was such big news in Grand Rapids that local television stations interrupted their regular programing (7pm hours with Jeopardy, Entertainment Tonight, etc.) to cover the event live with multiple reporters.

(In the above photo, you see the TV screen, which shows Obama speaking and thousands of people outside the arena watching on a big-screen).

Barack Obama in Grand Rapids

2008-05-14T16:16:00.000-07:00

Barack Obama came to Grand Rapids, MI today. As someone who is living in the area, I decided I would go and see him. Well, I never expected that the Obama event would be such an astronomically popular event in this conservative bastion.

The rally was scheduled to start at 7pm EST. I showed up moments before 6pm and the doors were already closed and the arena was filled and closed by the fire marshal. Moreover, thousands of people stood outside waiting for the possibility to get into the overflow room. (see below)

As I left the arena disappointed, I called a friend of mine who said he was going to show up early. He made it inside and had a spot toward the front. The catch--he showed up at 2:3opm and the doors opened at 5pm.

Obama and White Shirts

2008-05-07T19:29:00.000-07:00

I've noticed that Senator Obama (almost) always wears a white shirt. This is quite an interesting observation and I don't know what to make of it. I've selected some photos recently, but I looked back a long way and this trend holds true.

"Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) speaks to host Tim Russert during a live taping of 'Meet the Press' May 4, 2008 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Voters in Indiana and North Carolina go to primary polls May 6. (AJ Mast-Meet the Press/Handout/Reuters)" (view)

"U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) has his cheek touched by 7-month-old Aedyn Buchanan as he visits diners at Stephanie's II homestyle restaurant in Greensboro, North Carolina, May 5, 2008. North Carolina and Indiana will hold their Presidential Primaries on May 6. REUTERS/Jason Reed (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 (USA)" (view)

"Presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., greets workers during a shift change at the Automotive Components Holdings, LLC. in Indianapolis, Monday, May 5, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

"Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama talks with two voters outside the polling location at Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University in Indianapolis, May 6, 2008. (Brent Smith/Reuters)" (view)

Why Was Bill There???

2008-05-07T09:38:00.000-07:00

As soon as I saw Senator Clinton step to the microphone with Bill right behind her, I was shocked. What in the world was the campaign thinking to have Bill stand right behind her for the entire speech looking dead (except for when his name was mentioned)??? Chelsea, yes...Bill, no.

"US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) with daughter Chelsea (L) and husband former President Bill Clinton (C) speaks to supporters at her North Carolina and Indiana primary election night rally in Indianapolis, Indiana, May 6, 2008. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)" (view)

"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton with daughter Chelsea and husband former President Bill Clinton speaks to supporters at her North Carolina and Indiana primary election night rally in Indianapolis, Indiana, May 6, 2008. (Jeff Haynes/Reuters)" (view)

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Dreams

2008-05-02T19:30:00.000-07:00

Hillary Clinton recently released a new ad (view here). It is entitled "Dreams" and tends to focus on a more personal side of the Senator. Although I think it is prudent for Senator Clinton to enter into this territory, I do not think that this is that great of an ad. Nonetheless, there is an element of persuasion at work.

What Makes This Ad Persuasive

It's personal. As Karl Rove points out, part of being elected president is being personal and vulnerable (see Rove's Op-Ed in the WSJ).
It appeals to small town voters--the people who are "bitter" toward Senator Obama.
It appeals to the American myth--hard work, determination, and becoming what you want to be.
It appeals to white middle class voters. There are very few minorities in this ad.

Why This Ad is Not That Great

It is narrated too fast. Hillary sounds like she is speeding through. She needs to go slower for impact and retention amongst viewers.
She sounds like she is reading from a script.
She does not speak with passion like Senator Obama does (and George Bush did [on national security and faith]).

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Determined

2008-05-02T19:17:00.000-07:00

Hillary Clinton released a new ad airing in North Carolina entitled Determined (view here).

Why This Ad is Persuasive

Features the North Carolina governor, who narrates the entire ad.

This ads lots of credibility

Focuses on the bread-and-butter issues likely to be most important to North Carolina voters (e.g., economics, jobs, tax cuts, health care, education)
Subtly jabs George Bush

"tax cuts for the middle class for a change"

Plays on Hillary's emerging image as an underdog fighter who will never give up
Features blacks, whites, and Latinos
Features lots of everyday people (factory workers, people dressed casually)

Clinton's "Everyday" Problem

2008-05-02T19:15:00.001-07:00

I found the following video on YouTube (see here).

It shows Clinton having problems using a coffee machine in a gas station store--very embarrassing for a candidate who is putting herself out as the "everyday" candidate. Notice that this video has received about 1 million videos, despite being only a few days old.

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Trouble

2008-04-30T09:57:00.001-07:00

In a new ad from the Clinton campaign (view here), Senator Clinton outlines her economic differences with Senator Obama.

Why This Ad is Effective

Clearly contrasts the candidates in an easy to understand way

One of the most important parts of effective campaigning is drawing clear contrasts that are easy for the everyday voter to understand. This was one of Karl Rove's specalities. This ad paints in clear and defining strokes the differences between Senators Clinton and Obama.

Populist appeal

There is a wave of populism in the country today--especially on the Democratic side. Senator Clinton taps into this with her proposal of windfall profit taxes.

Repetition

Too often, Senator Clinton fails to use repetition to drive home her point. However, she uses "Senator Obama said 'no'" twice to drive home her point.

Credibility

The ad features news article sourcing to back up its claims.

Deadline Pressure

"Its time for a president whose ready to take action now"
People who are hurting want action now--not later. Hillary appeals to this.

Clinton Creating More "Everyday" Image

2008-04-30T08:56:00.001-07:00

Senator Clinton has had a lot of success recently at creating the "everyday" image through creative photo-ops.

Although the entire story and details are available here from the New York Times, let me give you the Cliff Notes version of the photo-op.

Senator Clinton rode in the car of an "average Joe" to work. On the way, she stopped at a gas station to help the Joe fill up with gas and make a point of high gas prices.

Here are the images:

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., pulls herself into the passenger side of a pickup truck to commute into work with sheetmetal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view).

Notice how Senator Clinton happened to ride in a big white Ford pick-up truck. The symbolism here is quite important. No foreign cars. No dirty cars. No small "elitist" hybrid cars.

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., left, rides in a pickup truck to commute to work with sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, as she campaigns in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Most people do not have cars driving in front of them taking pictures of them as they drive to work. Also, you may notice the Secret Service SUV behind Clinton--not exactly every day.

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., speaks about gas prices as sheet metal worker Jason Allan Wilfing puts $63 worth of gas into his pickup truck, Wednesday, April 30, 2008, during a campaign event in South Bend, Ind. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Notice how the photo is set up to show the gas prices behind them.

Clinton Creating "Everyday" Image

2008-04-30T07:44:00.000-07:00

In a repeat of the lead up to the PA primary, Senator Clinton is going door-to-door to create the "everyday" image.

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., greets a resident as she canvasses for votes along with Mayor Brian Snedecor, right, in Hobart, Ind. Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., meets with residents during a campaign stop in Hobart, Ind., Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Michael McArdle, Pool)" (view)

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., leaves after greeting David Smar of Hobart, Ind., as she canvasses for votes in the neighborhood Tuesday, April 29, 2008. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)" (view)

Obama Calls Wright Fair Game

2008-04-28T10:22:00.001-07:00

In an interview on Fox News Sunday, Senator Obama made what will become a major mistake as the campaign plays out.

WALLACE: Senator, you say a lot of good stuff. Reverend Wright (INAUDIBLE) are distractions from the real issues. But especially for someone like you, who’s a newcomer to the national scene, people don’t know a lot about, don’t voters have a legitimate interest in who you are and what your values are?
OBAMA: Absolutely ...I don’t think that the issue of Reverend Wright is illegitimate.

What in the world was Senator Obama thinking? He just gave the OK for republicans to smear him with Rev. Wright. He has weakened his ability to make Rev. Wright an "off limits" topic.

Obama and Guilt by Association

2008-04-28T08:43:00.000-07:00

I recently found the following ad playing in Mississippi (view here). This is the second ad like this I have found and I suspect there will be more.

Why This Ad Is Effective

Deep and scary sounding voice
Portrays Obama as culturally and personally out of touch
Quotes from news papers to ad credibility

Bill Clinton's Incredible Spin

2008-04-25T19:50:00.000-07:00

This video tells it all (view here). Bill Clinton said the Obama campaign played the race card and then the next day claimed he never said it--absolutely stunning spin.

This is yet another one of Bill Clinton's gaffes that are costing Hillary Clinton dearly--especially amongst blacks.

Clinton Campaign Complementing Fox? Wow!

2008-04-25T19:44:00.001-07:00

I never thought I would see the Clinton campaign praise Fox News, but I just did. (see clip here). I did not see this live as I was watching CNN, but this is certainly something. Just proves that if you live long enough, anything is possible.

I just discovered that Fox turned this clip into a promo. (view here)

Obama Looking More "Everyday"

2008-04-25T19:30:00.000-07:00

I watched video today from the Obama website of Senator Obama campaigning in Kokomo, Indiana (view). I know Kokomo as my grandparents live there and my dad grew up there. Consequently, I've been there numerous times and have a feeling for the town.

The thing that stood out: Senator Obama is trying to appear everyday and appeal to the white working class people.

Senator Obama is not wearing a suit coat. He is appearing everyday. Notice as well that his shirt is rolled up a tad.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., speaks during a town hall-style meeting in Kokomo, Ind., Friday, April 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

Senator Obama played basket ball with people in Kokomo. With a dad who grew up playing basketball in Kokomo, I can tell you that this is a very personal and deep-rooted way to connect with locals.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., arrives for a '3-on-3 Challenge for Change' basketball game at Maple Crest Elementary School in Kokomo, Ind., Friday, April 25, 2008. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)" (view)

McCain and Clinton Not in Mud

2008-04-24T07:52:00.000-07:00

In response to Bytwerk's comments, I looked at the search terms associated with Senator Clinton, Senator McCain and President Bush. Clearly, people are not searching for the level of dirt on Senators McCain and Clinton as they are for Senator Obama.

Free Public Advertising

2008-04-24T07:49:00.001-07:00

I don't know if you saw Obama's speech Tuesday night, but there was some great public advertising on display. See the screenshot below (from NYTimes).

As you may notice, three guys directly behind Obama on the TV are wearing Ambercrombie & Fitch clothing. Product placement?

Guilt By Association With Obama

2008-04-23T13:21:00.000-07:00

Barack Obama is now becoming a target of guilt-by-association (not just a recipient). The reception this ad receives will be a telling sign about how effective republicans can smear Obama for the fall. Stay tuned. This is an extremely important bell weather.

Here is the ad (view it on YouTube.com)

Obama Negative Fallout

2008-04-23T11:59:00.000-07:00

The fallout from the negative attacks on Senator Obama is beginning to be felt. Notice the following terms that Yahoo suggests when users enter Barack Obama and Obama.

Clinton's Republican Style Victory

2008-04-23T09:48:00.000-07:00

As I thought about how Hillary Clinton pulled out her impressive victory last night, I cannot help but conclude that she waged a republican "Karl Rove" style campaign.

She attacked Obama on values and culture.

E.g., All the attacks over the "bitter" comments and being elitist

She used fear of terrorism

In her Kitchen ad, she talked about the pressures of the presidency and the fear of terrorism

This is not a good sign for Barack Obama as there will certainly be more of this in the fall.

Clinton Media Coverage

2008-04-23T08:50:00.000-07:00

In case you need any more evidence of how difficult of a path lays before Senator Clinton, see the following news stories:

The Low Road to Victory (editorial, New York Times)
Obama Shifting Focus From Clinton to McCain (story, New York Times)
For Clinton, Win Can't Forestall Daunting Task (story, Washington Post)
How Hillary Loses by Winning (op-ed, Washington Post)
Too Little, Too Late (op-ed, New York Post)

Hillary PA Speech Analysis (A Good Speech)

2008-04-23T08:37:00.001-07:00

On the whole, I think that Hillary delivered a good victory speech last night in PA (transcript).

She directly addressed the all important super delegates and the question of electability immediately.

"It's a long road to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and it runs right through the heart of Pennsylvania."

She used John Edwards populist-fighting language to appeal to and strengthen her core consistency.

"I'm in this race to fight for you"
"And you deserve a champion who stands with you.

She sounded conciliatory

"This is a historic race. And I commend Senator Obama and his supporters tonight."

She tapped the feminist card

"We are, in many ways, all on this journey together to create an America that embraces every last one of us, the women in their 90s who tell me they were born before women could vote. And they're hopeful of seeing a woman in the White House. The mothers and fathers at my events who lift their little girls on their shoulders and whisper in their ears, 'See, you can be anything you want.'"

She made a fundraising request

"Now, we can only keep winning if we can keep competing with an opponent who outspends us so massively, so I hope you'll go to HillaryClinton.com"

She included a powerful narrative

"Not long ago -- not long ago, a woman handed me a photograph of her father as a young soldier. He was receiving the Medal of Honor from President Truman at the White House. During World War II, he had risked his life on a daring mission to drive back the enemy and protect his fellow soldiers. In the corner of that photo, in shaking handwriting, this American hero had simply written, "To Hillary Clinton, keep fighting for us."

Why Hillary Still Cannot Win

2008-04-22T20:29:00.000-07:00

Although it looks like Hillary will win by about 10%, it is still not enough. She can continue fighting, but she cannot convince super delegates.

Why?

Hillary is under immense media pressure to quit. (see NYT editorial set to be published tomorrow).
Hillary must ask super delegates to overthrow Barack's lead in pledged delegates and the popular vote. This is the fundamental problem: there is absolutely no way that super delegates are going to enrage countless new voters, blacks, and others by taking the nomination away from Obama. Only a huge margin of victory tonight could have done that--and 10% is not huge.

"Bitter" Fallout

2008-04-22T20:27:00.000-07:00

I have been going through the exit polls and noticed the following question (source). I think that this is a reasonable indication that the "bitter" comments about guns etc. probably had some impact. Granted, voters who own guns were already supporting Clinton. Nonetheless, a 20% margin is quite large.

Do you or does someone else in your household own a gun?

Pct. of total		Clinton	Obama
36	Yes	60	40
64	No	48	52

Clinton Campaign Pulling Out All the Tricks

2008-04-22T13:16:00.000-07:00

As if you needed any more evidence of how much is at stake in the primary fight in PA, I noted how the Clinton campaign is pulling out all the stops.

The Clinton campaign unveiled a new ad entitled "Kitchen" (view here). It is a very sharp attack ad that plays on fears of a terrorist attack and fears of Barack Obama's inexperience.
Bill Clinton accused the Obama campaign of playing the race card (source).
Hillary Clinton said that she "must win" PA (source). This is a pressure tactic designed to make voters feel the importance of going out and supporting her.
Clinton personally greeted lots of voters in front of a polling station in an effort to sway any undecided vote (source).

Tomorrow: The Beginning of the End for Clinton

2008-04-21T10:26:00.001-07:00

Tomorrow is the beginning of the end for Clinton. She will win, but not by enough.

Her campaign is losing the race for remaining super delegates (source)
Her campaign is deeply in debt (source)
Her attempts to stop Obama with Rev. Wright and the "bitter" comments have failed. It is doubtful that anything she can throw at Obama will succeed in materially affecting things at this point.
Her candidacy MUST win the popular vote to have any say with the super delegates. Yet, it is looking increasingly more difficult to do this.
Democratic leaders, most notably Howard Dean, are increasingly exerting pressure on the superdelegates to end the protracted primary fight. This means that Senator Obama will probably gain more superdelegates. (source)

Least Common Denominator Faith (Pt. 3)

2008-04-19T09:24:00.000-07:00

In the next installment of the series on least-common-denominator faith in American politics, we examine some comments from Senator Barack Obama. (see transcript)

After reading Senator Obama's extended comments at the compassion forum, it is clear that he conceives of religion as primarily a force for social good. For examlpe, he spoke about "our obligations religiously, in terms of doing good works, and how does that inform our politics."

Later in his remarks to the compassion forum, he again reduced Christianity down to social transformation and linked this "core value" to "all great religions."

[Obama:] "And, you know, if I'm acting in an ethical way, if I am working to make sure that I am applying what I consider to be a core value of Christianity, but also a core value of all great religions, and that is that I am my brother's keeper and I am my sister's keeper, then I will be doing my part to move his agenda forward."

The same principle--faith is about social transformation--is on display in Senator Obama's explanation of how he came to become involved in church.

[Obama:] "So as I'm doing this [community] organizing, some of the pastors started saying, 'You know, you've got great ideas, Obama, but, you know, if you're going to organize churches, it might help if you were going to church.' And I thought, 'Well, that's not an unreasonable position.' And so I started visiting some churches. Trinity United Church of Christ was one of the churches that we were trying to get involved in the organization."

Finally, the same principle is on display when it comes to using the language of religion.
[Obama:] "What religious language can often do is allow us to get outside of ourselves and mobilize around a common good."

Clinton's Sophistic Authenticity Problem

2008-04-16T19:57:00.000-07:00

In tonight's Democratic debate (transcript here), one of the moderators asked the candidates whether the other could beat John McCain. Senator Obama was straight forward while Senator Clinton was not. This is a case-in-point that demonstrates Senator Clinton's problem.

MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Let me pick up on this. When these comments from Senator Obama broke on Friday, Senator McCain's campaign immediately said that it was going to be a killer issue in November.
Senator Clinton, when Bill Richardson called you to say he was endorsing Barack Obama, you told him that Senator Obama can't win. I'm not going to ask you about that conversation. I know you don't want to talk about it. But a simple yes-or-no question: Do you think Senator Obama can beat John McCain or not?
SEN. CLINTON: Well, I think we have to beat John McCain, and I have every reason to believe we're going to have a Democratic president and it's going to be either Barack or me. And we're going to make that happen.
And what is important is that we understand exactly the challenges facing us in order to defeat Senator McCain.
He will be a formidable candidate. There isn't any doubt about that. He has a great American story to tell. He's a man who has served our country with distinction over many years, but he has the wrong ideas about America. And those ideas will be tested in the cauldron of this campaign.
But I also know, having now gone through 16 years of being on the receiving end of what the Republican Party dishes out, how important it is that we try to go after every single vote everywhere we possibly can to get to those electoral votes that we're going to need to have the next president elected.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: But the question is, do you think Senator Obama can do that? Can he win?
SEN. CLINTON: Yes. Yes. Yes.
Now, I think that I can do a better job. (Laughter.) I mean, obviously, that's why I'm here. I think I am better able and better prepared in large measure because of what I've been through and the work that I've done and the results that I've produced for people and the coalition that I have put together in this campaign, that Charlie referred to earlier.
Obviously, I believe I would be the best president, or I would not still be here, standing on this stage, and I believe I'm the better and stronger candidate against Senator McCain, to go toe to toe with him on national security and on how we turn the economy around.
MR. STEPHANOPOULOS: Senator Obama, do yo think Senator Clinton can win?
SEN. OBAMA: Absolutely, and I've said so before. But I too think that I'm the better candidate. (Laughter.) And I don't think that surprises anybody.

Obama Finally Answers "Bitter" Comments With Flavor

2008-04-16T19:50:00.000-07:00

For the first time that I am aware of, Senator Obama has responded to the "bitter" controversy in a way that meshed with his overall campaign (i.e., hope and change). In tonight's Democratic debate (transcript), he admitted that people are frustrated and concerned (hence his "bitter comments"). But, instead of leaving it at this, he emphasized that he is the man to elevate the same old politics that have left voters discouraged and empty. (Notice the bolded portions).

SEN. OBAMA: So this i something that I've said before. It is something that I will repeat again. And yes, people are frustrated and angry about it, but what we're seeing in this election is the opportunity to break through that frustration. And that's what our campaign has been about, saying that if the American people get involved and engaged, then we are going to start seeing change. And that's what makes this election unique.

Deep Divide in Democratic Party

2008-04-16T19:46:00.000-07:00

In analyzing the transcript from tonight's presidential debate between Senators Obama and Clinton, I noticed how deep the division has become. Consider the fact that each candidate seemed to utterly avoid the possibility of nominating the other as a VP candidate. (see transcript).

[Moderator: ]But pledge now that whichever one of you wins this contest, you'll take the other as your running mate, and that the other will agree if they lose, to take second place on the ticket.
So I put the question to both of you: Why not?
(Pause, laughter.)
Don't all speak at once. (Laughter.)
SEN. OBAMA: Well, I'm happy to start with a response. Look, this has been an extraordinary journey that both Senator Clinton and I have been on and a number of other able candidates. And I think very highly of Senator Clinton's record. But as I've said before, I think it's premature at this point for us to talk about who vice presidential candidates will be because we're still trying to determine who the nominee will be.
But one thing I'm absolutely certain of is that come August, when we're in Denver, the Democratic Party will come together, because we have no choice if we want to deliver on the promises that not only we've made but the founders made. We are seeing peoples' economic status slipping further and further behind. We've seen people who have not only lost their jobs but now are at risk of losing their homes.
We have a sharp contrast in terms of economic policies. John McCain wants to continue four more years of George Bush policies and, on the foreign policy front, wants to continue George Bush's foreign policy.
So I'm confident that both Senator Clinton's supporters and Senator Obama's supporters will be supporting the Democratic nominee when we start engaging in that general election.
MR. GIBSON: But Senator Clinton, Governor Cuomo made that suggestion because he's not so sure. And other Democrats are not so sure.
Just to quote from the Constitution again, "In every case," Article Two, Section One, "after the choice of the president, the person having the greatest number of votes of the electors shall be the vice president."
If it was good enough in colonial times, why not in these times.
SEN. CLINTON: Well, Charlie, I'm going to do everything I possibly can to make sure that one of us takes the oath of office next January. I think that has to be the overriding goal, whatever we have to do.
Obviously we are still contesting to determine who will be the nominee. But once that is resolved, I think it is absolutely imperative that our entire party close ranks, that we become unified.
I will do everything to make sure that the people who supported me support our nominee.
I will go anywhere in the country to make the case. And I know that Barack feels the same way, because both of us have spent 15 months traveling our country. I have seen the damage of the Bush years. I've seen the extraordinary pain that people have suffered from because of the failed policies; you know, those who have held my hands who have lost sons or daughters in Iraq, and those who have lost sons or daughters because they didn't have health insurance.
And so, regardless of the differences there may be between us, and they are differences, they pale in comparison to the differences between us and Senator McCain.
So we will certainly do whatever is necessary to make sure that a Democrat is in the White House next January.

Why Mitt Romney is a Flawed VP Candidate

2008-04-15T19:29:00.000-07:00

With Mitt Romney passionately advocating for John McCain’s candidacy in cable TV interviews, traveling with to western states for McCain fundraisers, and campaigning in Pennsylvania for Senator McCain, it appears that the McCain camp is testing the waters of a Romney vice presidential nomination. Although Mitt Romney would bring advantages to McCain’s candidacy, Romney remains a deeply flawed vice presidential candidate because he lacks a consistent conservative track record, fails to energize conservative voters, epitomizes the “say-anything-to-get-elected” politician, and lacks support amongst values voters.

The most problematic aspect of Mitt Romney as the vice presidential nominee is the fact that he is running as a republican. Yet, Romney’s history is marred by a slew of liberal positions he vehemently espoused while campaigning in the 1990s in Massachusetts. For example, Romney once asserted that he would be a more vocal proponent of the gay agenda than far-left Senator Edward Kennedy.[1] Similarly, in his debate xyz woman, Romney vehemently contended that he was not a pro-life candidate or a friend of social conservatives. With it comes to gun rights and other conservative issues, Romney passionately repudiated conservatism during his Massachusetts campaigns. As a vice presidential candidate, Romney will be in an extremely difficult position. He can either revert back to parts of his past in an attempt to connect with independents and Democrats and thereby alienate conservative voters or he can provide Democrats and hard-line conservatives with a limitless video real of quotes espousing positions antithetical to classical conservatism. Either way, Romney is a liability to John McCain.

The second problem with Mitt Romney as a vice presidential nominee is his failure to energize the base. Despite Mitt Romney’s expensive and repeated attempts to portray himself as the heir of Ronald Regan—whom, he impugned while campaigning during the 1990s—and staunch defender of conservative ideals, Romney utterly failed in convincing conservative voters in primaries. For example, in Iowa and South Carolina, exit-polls showed that Romney lost heavily amongst voters who described themselves as very conservative or somewhat conservative.[2] When it came to garnering support from key grass roots Republicans, Romney failed there too. The fiscally conservative Club for Growth said Romney’s economic record contained some “troublesome positions that beg to be explained” while the socially conservative Pat Robertson inexplicably endorsed Rudi Giuliani and national security conservatives like Liz Cheney endorsed Fred Thompson.

The third problem with Romney is that he epitomizes the classic politician who will say anything to win an election. His never-ending slew of spin, sophistry, and non-sequiturs raised countless doubts about his authenticity. For example, in Romney’s much-anticipated speech of faith in America, he said, “I saw my father march with Martin Luther King.”[3] When confronted with the fact that his father never marched with Dr. King, Romney entered the sophistry hall of fame by saying, “If you look at the literature, if you look at the dictionary, the term 'saw' includes being aware of in the sense I've described. It's a figure of speech and very familiar, and it's very common. And I saw my dad march with Martin Luther King. I did not see it with my own eyes, but I saw him in the sense of being aware of his participation in that great effort.”[4] This type of rhetorical gymnastic is familiar and common? Rather, it is this type of insincere “say-anything” attitude cost Romney dearly in republican primaries. In Iowa, exit-polls showed that voters who said the most important candidate quality was “saying what you believe” overwhelming opposed Romney.[5] The same dynamic played out in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

A final problem with Romney as the vice presidential nominee is his lack of support amongst social conservatives and values voters. In a television and YouTube age, he cannot escape his repeated and emphatic support of abortion and gay marriage while campaigning in Massachusetts during the 1990s. Given the large and important role that social conservatives play in the Republican Party, it is absolutely essential that these voters feel energized and enthusiastic. Mitt Romney is not a vice presidential nominee that engenders strong support. Mitt Romney is flawed.

[1]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/20/AR2006122002046.html

[2]

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/SC.html

[3]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/12/faith_in_america.html

[4]

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/21/romney_never_saw_father_on_king_march/

[5]

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/IA.html

How (Bill) Clinton Lost the 2008 Presidential Campaign

2008-04-15T19:26:00.000-07:00

What in the world was Bill Clinton thinking on April 10 when he brought up Hillary Clinton’s “misstatement” about landing under sniper fire in Bosnia? Just when the issue that cost Senator Clinton at least five points in the polls evaporated from the pages of newspapers and the consciousness of voters, Bill Clinton revived it. Even worse, the former president himself “misstated” half a dozen facts about Hillary’s trip and recollection of it. If last Thursday’s incident was the first time Bill damaged his wife’s campaign for president, it would be one thing. However, this is yet another page in an ever-growing book. Looking back at President Clinton’s influence on his wife’s campaign and on Al Gore’s 2000 campaign, it is becoming clear that Bill Clinton’s large personality and loose tongue overshadow and damage the presidential campaigns of others. The reason why Hillary is a national candidate in the first place is also the reason why she will not win.

In October, November, and early December, dozens of polls showed that Hillary Clinton held a strong lead over Barack Obama in South Carolina. Even after Senator Obama’s upset victory in Iowa on January 3, the race in the Palmetto State remained close.[1] The downward spiral began when some African-Americans rightly took offense at Bill Clinton’s charge in New Hampshire that Senator Obama and his claims were “the biggest fairy tale I’ve ever seen.” Things deteriorated precipitously in mid-January when Hillary left South Carolina to Bill in order to campaign for the February 5 Super-Tuesday states. Instead of championing Hillary’s policies and trying to avoid media coverage that distracted from Senator Clinton’s candidacy, Bill made himself the center of attention by repeatedly attacking Barack Obama and the media in ways that many interpreted as racially-charged.

Speaking to a reporter on January 23, the red-faced finger-wagging former president said that the Obama campaign and its surrogates are “feeding” the media racially-controversial stories “because they know this is what you want to cover. This is what you live for…. And the Obama people know that. So they just spin you up on this and you happily go along…shame on you.”[2] When these comments emerged, they eclipsed any coverage of Hillary or her policies for a few days. Sadly, this same theme played out repeatedly in the days running up to the South Carolina primary.

Bill, along with Hillary surrogates such as New York Congressman Charles Rangel and BET Founder Robert Johnson, repeatedly poured gasoline on the fire of a racially-charged controversy stemming from a comment that Senator Clinton made that seemed dismissive of the Martin Luther King’s work and legacy. These incendiary comments drew fire from prominent blacks such as Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton.[3] As if Bill had not yet inflamed racial tensions enough, on election day, when polls showed Senator Obama would win, the former president added a final comment that solidified the anger in the African-American community toward the Clintons. With a smirk on his face, Bill Clinton responded to a reporter’s question about why Senator Obama won by saying in a demeaning tone, “Jessie Jackson won South Carolina twice in 84 and 88.” The clear implication of this statement is that Barack Obama is the Jessie Jackson of the 2008 presidential campaign—a fringe candidate whose primary appeal is limited to racial factors. As a result of Bill Clinton’s overshadowing personality and under-disciplined mouth, Senator Obama racked up a near 30% margin of victory. This defeat marked only the beginning of the problems that Bill Clinton unleashed on his wife’s candidacy.

First, the landslide defeat in South Carolina gave Senator Obama the crucial momentum he needed to win 10 consecutive states, shattering Senator Clinton’s aura of inevitability and overtaking Senator Clinton’s delegate lead. Second, the irreparable damage done by Bill Clinton to the African-American community’s support for Senator Clinton stood out as the most significant long-term damage Bill’s campaign rhetoric and strategy in South Carolina had. In the Palmetto State, 78% of blacks voted for Senator Obama. In Georgia’s February 5 primary, Bill Clinton clearly played a role in Barack Obama’s victory. Democratic voters with a somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, and strongly unfavorable opinion of Bill Clinton voted by a nearly 4-to-1 margin for Senator Obama.[4] Similarly, in Maryland’s February 12 primary, 84% of blacks voted for Senator Obama.[5]

Third, the way Bill Clinton’s attacks on Senator Obama injected race into the primary angered many super delegates, causing them to break their silence and endorse Senator Obama. For example, Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts reportedly endorsed Senator Obama after Kennedy repeatedly expressed frustration with Bill Clinton’s more aggressive campaign rhetoric. The slew of super delegate endorsements that came after Kennedy’s severely undercut the argument that Hillary enjoyed the support of the party establishment, who ostensibly saw her as the established candidate.

While Bill Clinton made a great politician when it came to campaigning for himself, he is making a terrible campaigner when it comes to campaigning for her husband.

[1] http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_primary-234.html#market

[2] http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/01/23/bill_clinton_unloads_on_press.html

[3]

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/11/politics/main3702777.shtml?source=search_story

[4]

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/GA.html

[5]

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/MD.html

Least Common Denominator Faith (Pt. 2)

2008-04-15T08:14:00.000-07:00

In the second part of this commentary on least-common-denominator faith in America, we continue to examine how faith in America has become so diluted that it does not resemble orthodox Christianity. What has happened is the same labels and terms are being used, yet radically different meanings are being poured into them.

The following quotes are based upon a transcript of the Compassion Forum.

MEACHAM: Senator, we've heard about HIV/AIDS. Many people here are concerned about Darfur and a number of other humanitarian issues. Why do you think it is that a loving God allows innocent people to suffer?

CLINTON: Well...

(LAUGHTER)
...
CLINTON: And it's always been curious to me how our debate about religion in America too often misses that. You know, his holiness, the pope, is going to be coming to America next week, and he's been a strong voice on behalf of what we must do to deal with poverty, and deal with injustice, and deal with what is truly our obligations toward those who are the least among us.

So maybe, you know, the lord is just waiting for us to respond to his call, because this despair, this impoverishment of body and soul is what we are expected to be spending our time responding to, and so few of us do (emphasis added).

In this quote, we see two absolutely fascinating insights into Senator Clinton's theological views: (1) Evil occurs because "the lord is just waiting for us to respond to his call." In other words, it lies within the human capacity to perfect the world. In historic Christian orthodoxy of all forms (except strong Pelagianism, which is not orthodoxy and has been condemned by both Catholics and Protestants since the time of Augustine and the Council of Orange in 529), human kind is depraved. (2) God is the clockmaker God. He set up the world and sits back, "just waiting for us to respond."

Least Common Denominator Faith

2008-04-15T07:43:00.000-07:00

In a recent interview at the Compassion Forum (view transcript here), Senators Clinton and Obama made explicitly religious comments in a way that I do not believe they have ever done before. Certainly, this is ground-breaking territory for liberals.

What I find fascinating is how our culture is becoming increasingly populated with a very mild least-common-denominator religion that passes for orthodoxy. This is not just occurring amongst liberals. The President has repeatedly made least common denominator religion comments.

When I read the transcript from the Compassion Forum, I had just finished reading another chapter in J. Gresham Machen's 1920s book Christianity and Liberalism. Machen's book is his controversial thesis that the liberal theology of the 1920s, which bears so many similarities with the least-common-denominator today, is not Christianity. Machen's book proved so controversial that it led to his expulsion from Princeton Seminary. Caught between the liberals and the fundamentalists, Machen, a reformed Presbyterian pastor, predicted that the least-common-denominator faith would sink orthodox Christianity. Personally, I think Machen is right.

Returning to the Compassion Forum and evidence of least-common-denominator faith and its place in American politics in the 21st century, some excerpts and comments below:

CLINTON: You know, I have, ever since I've been a little girl, felt the presence of God in my life. And it has been a gift of grace that has, for me, been incredibly sustaining. But, really, ever since I was a child, I have felt the enveloping support and love of God and I have had the experiences on many, many occasions where I felt like the holy spirit was there with me as I made a journey.

It didn't have to be a hard time. You know, it could be taking a walk in the woods. It could be watching a sunset.

In this comment, Senator Clinton reduces the Holy Spirit to a graceful, nebulous, and inspiring force that warms the heart of humans. No mention of the Holy Spirit within the context of conviction, sin, or redemption.

The clearest insight into Senator Clinton's least common denominator faith came in response to a question from Newsweek editor John Meacham.

CLINTON: But I also believe that, you know, faith is just -- it's grace. It's love. It's mystery. It's provocation. It is everything that makes life and its purpose meaningful as a human being.

Once again, we see a non-sectarian, nebulous, and vague religion.

Party Like it 1999

2008-04-14T20:26:00.001-07:00

I recently saw the following ad from the Republican Senate Committee. Although I am not entirely sure how effective the ad will be, it is absolutely hilarious.

View ad here.

Points From This Ad

As is increasingly the case today, the politics of personality loom much larger than the politics of policy.
Humor. This ad very effectively uses humor to make a point (i.e., John Kerry is out of style).
Pop-Culture. This ad appeals to voters who know little about politics but know a lot about pop-culture. However, one wonders about the efficacy of an ad that plays on this type of pop-culture in Massachusetts.
No republican candidate is mentioned. This may be because one is not yet nominated via a primary. Or, it may be because the ad is so negative that the sponsors do not want to implicate a republican candidate in it.

Obama Scores Big with Voter Registration

2008-04-14T13:19:00.000-07:00

In early April, Barack Obama's campaign announced a very creative way to persuade young voters to register their friends to vote. This effort, like many others, taps into personal persuasion strategies instead of detailed, cerebral, and academic strategies.

From the Obama campaign website (source):

As an Indiana high school student, you have a chance to play 3-on-3 basketball with Barack Obama! You just need to reach out to your friends and register fellow students at your high school to vote.
Indiana's voter registration deadline is coming up, and anyone who wishes to vote in the Democratic primary and support Barack must be registered by April 7th.

No prior experience is needed. It's easy. Just sign up, download registration forms, and start registering students at your high school to vote.* In order to qualify to play 3-on-3 with Barack, all registration forms must be turned in by April 6th at your local Obama office and you must register at least 20 high school students.

*You must be 18 by November 4th, 2008 in order to vote in the Indiana Primary on May 6th, 2008. That means most high school seniors can be registered to vote.

Clinton Drunk on Pandering

2008-04-14T13:06:00.000-07:00

One of the most important parts of persuading people in our highlight-clip culture that is dominated by personality instead of positions is resonating with voters. It is so important that the voters establish some link of commonality with the candidate. Whether it was the comic/cowboy in George Bush or the happy-meal diet in Bill Clinton, a candidate must connect with voters.

Senator Hillary Clinton took pandering to the extreme on Saturday (April 12) when she stopped at a bar to be photographed taking a drink with the every-day people.

As evidence of how fake the entire stop was, notice in the photo below how the couple sitting to the right are totally disinterested in the fact that Senator Clinton is present.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., raises her mug of beer in a toast with Hammond, Ind., Mayor Tom McDermott, left, as she stops at the bar during a campaign stop at Bronko's restaurant in Crown Point, Ind., Saturday, April 12, 2008. Ed and Patty Hall are seated right. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)" (source)

Finally a Good McCain Campaign Ad

2008-03-28T08:49:00.000-07:00

After months of writing about Barack Obama's good campaign ads, I can finally write about a good (or at least, reasonably good) campaign ad for John McCain.

The title of the ad is 624787, which caught my attention. At first, I thought the title was a goof and the technical people at the McCain campaign forgot to give the ad a real title for YouTube.com

View ad here.

Why Ad is Persuasive

It inspires

It makes you feel like America can come together and it makes you respect Senator McCain.

It makes you feel good

John McCain is complementing people in the ad. The viewers are called "honorable" and "worth protecting"

It plays to patriotism

When one gets a glimpse of what John McCain went through, it makes you respect him tremendously.

It attacks Hillary Clinton

One of the subtitles says that John McCain is "ready from day one." This is a line that Hillary Clinton has used extensively so John McCain is subtly attacking.

Copycat Campaign Tactic

2008-03-26T15:14:00.000-07:00

Not to be outdone after Senator Obama's offer for a meal with an everyday donor, the McCain campaign sent out the following email:

Next week, I will embark on a "Service to America" tour visiting numerous locations that have played a significant role in shaping who I am today; places where I have had the honor of serving our nation. This tour will take me through Mississippi, Virginia, Florida and my home state of Arizona. I look forward to visiting sites that have left an imprint on my life aboard my campaign bus, the Straight Talk Express.

My campaign has come up with an opportunity for a supporter to join me on the Straight Talk Express for a day of conversation and campaigning. As a token of my appreciation for your financial support, you will be entered to win this seat aboard the Straight Talk Express if you make a contribution before midnight on March 31st. I hope you'll consider joining me by making a donation today. If you can give $50 or more, not only will you be entered to win a ride on the Straight Talk Express, but you'll receive a commemorative Straight Talk Express ticket.

March 31, 2008 marks an important deadline for our campaign. We will file a report with the FEC outlining the amount of money we have raised during the past three months. I'm reaching out to you to ask for your support by following this link to make a donation of $50, $100, $250, $500, $1,000 - anything you can contribute up to the legal limit of $2,300.

I have said many times before that this campaign will be the most expensive campaign in our history, and I have no doubt that both Senators Clinton and Obama will continue to report historic, record-breaking fundraising numbers. With your support today, my campaign will have the resources necessary to compete with either Senator Clinton or Obama in what will be a great contest come November.

I'm looking forward to traveling on the Straight Talk Express again next week, visiting directly with voters, hearing their concerns, offering my vision for the future and highlighting those among us who are serving our country and communities, dedicating themselves to causes greater than their own self interest. Your support makes this possible, and I am grateful for any assistance you are able to give.

Once again, we see persuasive strategies being employed to elicit giving. One question that stands out in my mind: don't these supporters get sick and tired of a non-stop flow of fundraising appeals? It seems as though the main focus of every email is an attempt to raise money.

A Persuasive Email

2008-03-25T21:13:00.001-07:00

I recently received the following email from the Obama campaign. Although my email box is filled with these political emails, the title grabbed my attention and caused me to open it. The title was: Dinner with Barack and it read as follows.

You've heard about all of these political fundraising dinners, hosted by Washington lobbyists and filled with representatives of special interests.

Contributions like these are at the root of what's wrong with politics. And John McCain and Hillary Clinton have built campaigns fueled by them.

But our campaign is different.

In February alone, more than 94% of our donors gave in amounts of $200 or less. Meanwhile, campaign finance reports show that donations of $200 or less make up just 13% of Senator McCain's total campaign funds, and only 26% of Senator Clinton's.

Our funding comes from a movement of more than one million people giving whatever they can afford.

And in the next week, four supporters will be selected for a new kind of fundraising dinner.

Make a donation in any amount between now and 11:59 pm EDT on Monday, March 31st, and you could join Barack and three other supporters for an intimate dinner for five.

We're reserving two of those seats for new donors like you. If you've ever thought about making a donation to join our campaign, now is the time:

https://donate.barackobama.com/dinner

This movement is changing the way campaigns are funded.

Although it will be difficult to know for sure how persuasive this email is, I bet it will be incredibly effective at getting individuals on the fence to donate. Moreover, the statistics in this email are absolutely incredible (e.g., the percent of small donations to the Obama campaign).

Why This Email is Persuasive

It appeals to the everyday person by maligning big money and corporate power
It offers a personal connection (e.g., dinner with Barack)
It makes you feel like you are a part of a movement (not a standard political campaign)

Judas: A Powerful Metaphor

2008-03-24T20:05:00.000-07:00

Metaphors are extremely powerful persuasive tools. They evoke certain connections and connotations. On Saturday night, I was sitting in the living room of my apartment watching the NCAA tournament and I heard my brother yell from the other room. A bit surprised, I got up and asked him what was going on. He said, "take a look at this," pointing to an article from the New York Times that he was reading.

The portion of the article, which discussed Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama despite Richardson's long history with the Clintons, read:

The reaction of some of Mr. Clinton’s allies suggests that might have been a wise decision. “An act of betrayal,” said James Carville, an adviser to Mrs. Clinton and a friend of Mr. Clinton.
“Mr. Richardson’s endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic,” Mr. Carville said, referring to Holy Week. (source)

I was absolutely astounded that Mr. Carville, a man known for hard-hitting politics, would make a comment like this. Personally, it has not surprised me at all that this comment has received a lot of play in the media. To clearly see the persuasive power of the metaphor, notice that there is a profound difference between calling someone a "betrayer" and someone a "Judas." The connotation of Judas also produces the implicit reference that Hillary Clinton is a Christ-figure and Barack Obama is a Satan-figure.

Despite the controversy, Mr. Carville is not backing down (source).

“I was quoted accurately and in context, and I was glad to give the quote and I was glad I gave it,” Mr. Carville said. “I’m not apologizing, I’m not resigning, I’m not doing anything.” (source)

Obama and Internet Interest

2008-03-23T13:22:00.000-07:00

A friend of mine recently pointed out disparity amongst the number of videos about each presidential candidate on YouTube.com. This got me thinking and doing some additional research and what I found astonished me.

Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain each have their own "channel" on YouTube. However, the disparity in the number of views is absolutely astonishing. Barack's videos have received about 13 million views while Hillary's videos have received about 1.5 million and John's videos have received about 600,000.

Perhaps even more astonishing is the fact that Barack Obama's speech on race this past week has already been viewed about 3 million times. This means that the video of the speech is being viewed about 600,000 times in a single day or 25,000 times an hour or 416 times a minute or 7 times a second. In one day, Barack Obama's speech is being watched as many times as all of John McCain's videos combined.

BarackObamadotcom

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John McCain and an Interesting and Unpresidential Photo

2008-03-22T19:24:00.000-07:00

I thought I would post a photo of John McCain that I ran across that does not make him look too presidential. Fortunately, these types of unpresidential photos of Senator McCain do not seem to make their way around easily.

It is kind of interesting that John McCain is being frisked before getting on his plane.

" Republican nominee for president John McCain is frisked before boaring his charter plane in San Antonio, Texas." (source)

Keith Olbermann's Persuasive Commentary

2008-03-22T15:44:00.000-07:00

Over the past few weeks, I've heard a number of comments about Keith Olbermann, who is an anchor and commentator on MSNBC with a far-left bent. Personally, I find many of his views repugnant. However, he is becoming more and more popular. On a semi-regular basis, he delivers what he calls "Special Comments," which amount to a 8-10 minute editorial, usually on a politically related subject. Seeing as many Americans find his commentary extremely persuasive, I want to examine why his commentaries are so persuasive.

In this piece, I will examine the commentary that he gave on October 18, 2006 on the Military Commissions Act and--in Olbermann's view--the loss of Habeas Corpus.

I would recommend you view the commentary here at YouTube.com as it is an excellent piece of persuasive work. Also, you can view a rough transcript here [note: this transcript is not entirely perfect].

Why Olbermann is Persuasive

Speaks With Passion.

Olbermann speaks with significant passion and uses excellent inflection in his voice and pauses at times to magnify his points.

Uses Numerous Historical Examples.

"We have been here when President John Adams insisted that the Alien and Sedition Acts were necessary to save American lives — only to watch him use those Acts to jail newspaper editors."
"We have been here, when President Woodrow Wilson insisted that the Espionage Act was necessary to save American lives — only to watch him use that Act to prosecute 2,000 Americans, especially those he disparaged as "Hyphenated Americans," most of whom were guilty only of advocating peace in a time of war."
"And we have been here when President Franklin D. Roosevelt insisted that Executive Order 9-0-6-6 was necessary to save American lives — only to watch him use that Order to imprison and pauperize 110-thousand Americans"

Criticizes Democrats and Republicans

Olbermann criticizes both Republican and Democratic presidents from the past.

Repetition

"the most vital, the most urgent, the most inescapable of reasons" is repeated multiple times at crucial times in the piece.

Fear

Olbermann is trying to engender fear in his listeners to scare them. "Sadly — of course — the distance of history will recognize that the threat this generation of Americans needed to take seriously… was you."
"We have handed a blank check drawn against our freedom to a man who may now, if he so decides, declare not merely any non-American citizens 'Unlawful Enemy Combatants' and ship them somewhere — anywhere — but may now, if he so decides, declare you an 'Unlawful Enemy Combatant' and ship you somewhere - anywhere."

Uses Powerful Metaphors

"blank check"
"the wolf is at the door"

Obama Prolongs Wright Controversary

2008-03-20T18:46:00.000-07:00

In a serious escalation to the controversy over the remarks of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the Obama campaign today released a photo of Bill Clinton and Jeremiah Wright. In addition, the campaign released a thank you note from Bill Clinton to Rev. Wright.

(source)

(source)

Why This Photo Release Was a Bad Idea

It keeps the issue of Rev. Wright in the media. It is highly unlikely this will do much damage to Hillary Clinton as she is not in the photo. Moreover, for whatever damage this will do to Hillary Clinton, it will do far more damage to Senator Obama because it keeps Rev. Wright in the press and Rev. Wright is far more associated with Senator Obama than Senator Clinton.
It makes Rev. Wright, who vehemently criticized Bill and Hillary Clinton in a recent sermon where he basically endorsed Senator Obama, look even more absurd.

In short, although releasing this photo will bring Bill and Hillary Clinton into the discussion of Rev. Wright, it will not make the issue go away. In fact, it will only give it more life.

Obama, Music, and Lincoln

2008-03-19T18:13:00.001-07:00

After every one of Barack Obama's victory speeches, I noticed that the same music played in the background. I saw a Lincoln commercial on TV tonight and I thought, "that's the same music that plays after Barack's victory speeches." I wonder whether Lincoln is trying to play-off the Obama phenomena. Just a thought.

Mitt and Hillary - What Can We Learn

2008-03-19T11:56:00.000-07:00

As I began to reflect on the rumors floating about concerning the possibility that Mitt Romney might be John McCain's VP nominee, I realized something that I have not heard discussed in the media: Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney have considerable similarities. In this post, I want to step away from my usual focus on persuasion and explore this observation.

Poll-Driven Campaigns
As is widely known, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist also "happens" to be a pollster (Mark Penn). Hillary has positioned herself according to polls. Similarly, Mitt Romney relied heavily upon polls and often wavered until he was sure about what the "right" view was (e.g., his reluctance to embrace the surge until he saw it was popular amongst conservatives).

Stiff
Both Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney have earned (perhaps unfairly--I would say fairly) the reputation of being stiff and not down-to-earth. For months, Mitt Romney wore a suit and tie until his handlers realized that the voters could not identify with him. Then, Mitt took the suit off and, when pressed by Chris Matthews in late January about why he decided to stop wearing a suit and tie, Mitt said that the room he interviewed in was hot (sure...).

Flip-Flopper
Mitt Romney has changed his positions on abortion, Ronald Reagan, gay marriage, and a whole host of other issues. Similarly, Hillary has changed her views on Iraq withdraw, Iran, and has nuanced her views significantly on abortion.

Wealthy
Both candidates are extremely wealthy and used their wealth in the election. Mitt spent a lot of his own money while Hillary loaned her campaign $5 million at a crucial time in the campaign. It is not that Americans won't vote for wealthy candidates (most of our Presidents have been wealthy), it is when the perception comes that a candidate is trying to buy an election that things turn sour.

Perhaps this observation is not material, but I really think there are some important similarities. Moreover, I think this observation, combined with the Obama surge, shows rather strongly that Americans want a reasonable level of authenticity amongst their political leaders.

Why Hillary Could Not Persuade - Part 4

2008-03-19T11:46:00.000-07:00

In the fourth part of our series on why Hillary Clinton could not persuade, we will examine Hillary Clinton's strategy of attacking the press. Although this worked a little before the Ohio and Texas primaries, on the whole, it made her look desperate.

When a candidate is loosing and turns to attacking the press, it looks very desperate. Moreover, it only makes the press hate the candidate more and engenders negative articles about the candidate. Consider the following Washington Post article entitled Team Clinton: Down, and Out of Touch, which arose when Clinton campaign officials lashed out at reporters, displaying shocking arrogance.

They are in the last throes, if you will.
As Vice President Cheney knows, such predictions can be perilous. Still, there was no mistaking a certain flailing, a lashing-out, as two Clinton advisers sat down for a bacon-and-eggs session yesterday at the St. Regis Hotel.
The Christian Science Monitor had assembled the éminences grises of the Washington press corps -- among them David Broder of The Post, Maureen Dowd of the New York Times and columnist Mark Shields -- for what turned out to be a fascinating tour of an alternate universe.
First came Harold Ickes, who gave a presentation about Hillary Rodham Clinton's prospects that severed all ties with reality. "We're on the way to locking this nomination down," he said of a candidate who appears, if anything, headed in the other direction.
But before the breakfast crowd had a chance to digest that, they were served another, stranger course by Clinton campaign spokesman Phil Singer. Asked about an accusation on the Drudge Report that Clinton staffers had circulated a photo of Barack Obama wearing Somali tribal dress, Singer let 'er rip.
"I find it interesting that in a room of such esteemed journalists that Mr. Drudge has become your respected assignment editor," he lectured. "I find it to be a reflection of one of the problems that's gone on with the overall coverage of this campaign." He went on to chide the journalists for their "woefully inadequate" coverage of Obama, "a point that has been certainly backed up by the 'Saturday Night Live' skit that opened the show this past Saturday evening, which I would refer you all to."
The brief moment explained everything about the bitter relations between Clinton's campaign and the media: Singer taunting the likes of Broder, who began covering presidential politics two decades before Singer was born, with a comedy sketch that showed debate moderators fawning over Obama.

Consider the following from CNN on Feb 26:

A spokesman for Hillary Clinton lashed out at the media Monday for what he described as a double standard in the way the press covers the two Democratic White House hopefuls.
On a conference call with reporters Monday afternoon, Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson maintained Barack Obama is running a negative campaign, and said the press largely praises him for doing so.

“I think it is true that every time the Obama campaign in this campaign has attacked Sen. Clinton in the worst kind of personal ways, attacked her veracity, attacked her credibility, said that she would say or do anything to get elected, the press has largely applauded him," Wolfson said. (source)

Obama's Race Speech (Pt. 3) - The Appearence

2008-03-19T09:36:00.000-07:00

Perhaps I am reading way to much into the physical appearances of things, but based upon an op-ed Maureen Dowd wrote and my own perception, I think it may not have been a coincidence that Senator Obama wore a gray suit yesterday for his much-anticipated race speech.

I struggled to find a photo where it was clear, but the one below is perhaps the best I could find.

"Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) smiles before speaking during a campaign event at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania March 18, 2008. Obama criticized his preacher for racially charged rhetoric but said he could not disown the man who baptized his children and officiated at his wedding during the speech about race and politics in America.(Tim Shaffer/Reuters)" (source)

Obama's Race Speech (Pt. 2) - The Setting

2008-03-18T13:25:00.000-07:00

The setting of Senator Obama's speech should also be noted from a persuasive standpoint.

1.) The speech was given in a building across from Constitution hall in Philadelphia. Senator Obama himself alluded to this in his introduction: "Two hundred and twenty one years ago, in a hall that still stands across the street, a group of men gathered and, with these simple words, launched America’s improbable experiment in democracy."

2.) For the first time that I can remember, Senator Obama spoke in front of a line of American flags.

"Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama D-Ill., speaks about race during a news conference in Philadelphia, Tuesday, March 18, 2008.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)" (source)

Obama's Race Speech

2008-03-18T08:58:00.000-07:00

Earlier today, Senator Barack Obama gave a major speech on race. The media has covered this speech extensively and I wanted to make a few points. A transcript of the prepared remarks is available here. (For background, if you are aware of the background of this controversy, see a list of Rev. Wright's remarks).

Personally, I felt that the speech was rather good. There were some points where I felt it could have been rhetorically stronger and more emotionally inspiring. However, I was impressed that Senator Obama came straight out and tried to address the racial issues in a straight forward manner. Moreover, I think that Obama might be able to capitalize on this issue--i.e., he might be able to convince the country that he can bring the country to a new level in the racial issues that his campaign has brought to the forefront.

Below, I have pointed out some interesting and recurring themes from Obama's speech.

One other point: I heard Jack Caffrety mention on the 4pm EST hour of The Situation Room on CNN that Obama wrote the speech himself.

Pro-American

" This belief comes from my unyielding faith in the decency and generosity of the American people."
"Of course, the answer to the slavery question was already embedded within our Constitution – a Constitution that had at is very core the ideal of equal citizenship under the law; a Constitution that promised its people liberty, and justice, and a union that could be and should be perfected over time."
"for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible."
Obama denounced the speech "that elevates what is wrong with America above all that we know is right with America;"
"America, this country that I love"
"But I have asserted a firm conviction – a conviction rooted in my faith in God and my faith in the American people – that working together we can move beyond some of our old racial wounds, and that in fact we have no choice if we are to continue on the path of a more perfect union."
"This time we want to talk about the men and women of every color and creed who serve together, and fight together, and bleed together under the same proud flag"

Personal Story

"my own American story"
"I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents"

Strong Religious Language

"The document they produced was eventually signed but ultimately unfinished. It was stained by this nation’s original sin of slavery"
" my Christian faith"
" God’s work here on Earth"
"at the foot of that cross, inside the thousands of churches across the city, I imagined the stories of ordinary black people merging with the stories of David and Goliath, Moses and Pharaoh, the Christians in the lion’s den, Ezekiel’s field of dry bones."
"But I have asserted a firm conviction – a conviction rooted in my faith in God and my faith in the American people – that working together we can move beyond some of our old racial wounds, and that in fact we have no choice if we are to continue on the path of a more perfect union."
"In the end, then, what is called for is nothing more, and nothing less, than what all the world’s great religions demand – that we do unto others as we would have them do unto us. Let us be our brother’s keeper, Scripture tells us. Let us be our sister’s keeper. Let us find that common stake we all have in one another, and let our politics reflect that spirit as well."

Close With a Story

"There is a young, twenty-three year old white woman named Ashley Baia who organized for our campaign in Florence, South Carolina. She had been working to organize a mostly African-American community since the beginning of this campaign, and one day she was at a roundtable discussion where everyone went around telling their story and why they were there."

Obama and "God Bless America"

2008-03-17T20:49:00.000-07:00

As the controversy over the statements of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright exploded onto the national scene last week, perhaps the most inflammatory comment was one that could be played in a 5 second sound bite: "Not God Bless America, but God damn America"(source).

In trying to manage the fallout from these inflammatory comments, Barack Obama has added a little closing line to some of his speeches. For the first time in the entire campaign, Barack Obama closed a speech with "God Bless You and God Bless America" (source). Obviously, Obama is trying to tacitly blunt the fallout from Rev. Wright's comments.

Images from John McCain's Visit to Iraq

2008-03-17T17:41:00.000-07:00

As I follow the press coverage of John McCain's visit to Iraq, I am a bit puzzled by the visual images he is portraying. On the one hand, he creates photo ops that make him appear very presidential. However, he also allows photos of him taken that make him appear extremely unpresidential. Below, I have included the photos that make him appear presidential.

"Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (R) meets U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain (L) in Baghdad March 17, 2008. REUTERS/Ceerwan Aziz (IRAQ)" (source)

"Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabagh (L) walks with U.S. Republican presidential candidate John McCain during a visit in Baghdad March 17, 2008. REUTERS/Ceerwan Aziz (IRAQ)" (source)

While I am at it, I cannot post this blog without showing you the photo below.

Unflattering Media Photos of Hillary (More)

2008-03-17T17:25:00.001-07:00

On this blog, we've pointed out how Hillary Clinton and George Bush have been the subjects of numerous unflattering photos from the press.

Well...here are more of these photos. I cannot figure out why the media keeps publishing these.

"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) is greeted by Former New York City Mayor David Dinkins (L) as she arrives for the inauguration of New York State Governor David Paterson as the 55th state governor at the state capitol building in Albany, New York March 17, 2008. REUTERS/Keith Bedford (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)" (source)

"

U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton ,D-N.Y. reacts as she is greeted by Sgt. of Arms Wayne Jackson of the New York Assembly prior to the swearing ceremony of New York Gov. David Paterson in the Assembly Chamber at the state Capitol in Albany, N.Y., Monday, March 17, 2008.(AP Photo/HansPennink)" (source)

"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) delivers a campaign speech on the war in Iraq at George Washington University in Washington, March 17, 2008.REUTERS/Jim Bourg (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 (USA)" (source)

"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) looks straight ahead as a campaign aide behind her struggles with a falling sign before the start of a campaign speech on the war in Iraq at George Washington University in Washington, March 17, 2008.REUTERS/Jim Bourg (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008 (USA)" (source)

"US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) points to a supporter during the St. Patrick's Day Parade in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania March 15, 2008. (Jason Cohn/Reuters)" (source)

Why Hillary Could Not Persuade - Part 3

2008-03-17T13:51:00.000-07:00

In the third part of this series, we will examine another reason why Hillary Clinton could not persuade voters: her campaign attacked them. This seems like an elementary violation of the rules of persuasion, but Hillary's campaign managed to do this. It is difficult for voters to feel affinity for the Clinton campaign when they are being attacked by it.

Consider the following:

Of his wife's recent travails, [Bill Clinton] said, "the caucuses aren't good for her. They disproportionately favor upper-income voters who, who, don't really need a president but feel like they need a change." (source)

Clinton's campaign said that a lot of the states where Obama won "don't matter" (source)

"[The Clinton campaign] also said Clinton will likely be within 25 delegates of Obama after voting on March 4, including superdelegates, and they dismissed most states which Obama has won. 'Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn't won any of the significant states -- outside of Illinois?' Chief Strategist Mark Penn said. 'That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.'" (source)

Why Hillary Could Not Persuade - Part 2

2008-03-17T13:17:00.000-07:00

In the second part of our series on why Hillary Clinton could not persuade democrats and win the nomination, we examine her perceived phoniness. In short, Americans do not like people whom they perceive as fake and insincere. Consider, for example, the Concord Monitor's stinging disendorsement of Mitt Romney that turned the tide in New Hampshire: "When New Hampshire partisans are asked to defend the state's first-in-the-nation primary, we talk about our ability to see the candidates up close, ask tough questions and see through the baloney. If a candidate is a phony, we assure ourselves and the rest of the world, we'll know it. Mitt Romney is such a candidate. New Hampshire Republicans and independents must vote no." (source) Hillary has had the same problem--she could not persuade Americans that she was genuine. She appeared calculating and press stories like the ones below only reinforced this conception.

Mrs Clinton tries hard to fake sincerity – so hard it is painful to watch. Sometimes, in fact, I suspect that she really is sincere and only looks as though she is faking. Barack Obama, on the other hand, may actually be sincere – and if he is not, he fakes it so well it makes no difference.
...
It is surely telling that the most effective moments in Mrs Clinton’s campaign have been those rare times when a real person has appeared to break through: the tears in New Hampshire, the moving and seemingly unaffected tribute to wounded soldiers at the end of the Houston debate the other day. But for most of the time she has veered from one false personality to another, often during the course of a single debate or interview. One moment she would be acting tough, the next warm; now aloof, now approachable; now a fun person, fond of a joke (that was the worst), now stern and serious. In every moment of repose came that scary rictus smile, to emphasise the lack of authenticity and remind one irresistibly of Jack Nicholson in The Shining.
(source)

Why Hillary Could Not Persuade - Part 1

2008-03-17T12:55:00.001-07:00

In the coming days, I will be posting a series of entries trying to explain why Hillary Clinton's candidacy failed. In other words, how is it that over the past year Hillary has gone from front-runner to failure? How is it that a candidate with the best name recognition and the biggest fundraising operation (formerly) lost?

The first reason why Hillary couldn't persuade is because she utterly mismanaged her campaign's finances. This is a problem for two reasons: (1) If someone is trying to convince a country that she is a qualified executive and capable of overseeing the trillions of dollars that the Federal government spends annually, why should we believe her in light of the following:

Nearly $100,000 went for party platters and groceries before the Iowa caucuses, even though the partying mood evaporated quickly. Rooms at the Bellagio luxury hotel in Las Vegas consumed more than $25,000; the Four Seasons, another $5,000. And top consultants collected about $5 million in January, a month of crucial expenses and tough fund-raising.
...
The firm that includes Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategist and pollster, and his team collected $3.8 million for fees and expenses in January; in total, including what the campaign still owes, the firm has billed more than $10 million for consulting, direct mail and other services, an amount other Democratic strategists who are not affiliated with either campaign called stunning.
Howard Wolfson, the communications director and a senior member of the advertising team, earned nearly $267,000 in January. His total, including the campaign’s debt to him, tops $730,000. (source)

(2) In such a close race, a candidate cannot afford to waste money. Consider the example of John McCain, whose campaign budgeted its way back into the nomination:

[Rick] Davis, [John McCain's campaign manager and] a calm and efficient lobbyist who impressed everyone with his budgeting skills...

The campaign slashed many salaries, top aides worked without pay, and virtually
everyone had to fill multiple roles. Field organizers handled advance for McCain's events. National press secretary Brooke Buchanan also became McCain's on-the-road secretary, coffee fetcher and occasional baggage hauler.
In an organization that had once spent money on luxuries like a snow plow to clear the way for McCain's bus, Davis issued a mandate that the campaign would never spend more in a week than it raised. Every Friday afternoon, the finance team sorted through requests. "Ninety-five percent of people [Davis] talked to, he was telling them 'No,' " Black recalled.

The campaign stopped building its own events and trawled for invitations. "If you went to a Rotary in Manchester [N.H.], it didn't cost you anything," Davis said. "So we went to a lot of Rotary Clubs. . . . The philosophy in July, August, September and October was: Don't spend money unless you absolutely needed it."

When McCain inched up in polls in the fall, aides called from Iowa begging: "Could you just give us something?" But "every decision had to be subordinate to winning New Hampshire," Salter said.
(source)

Two Strategies of Persuasion

2008-03-13T13:46:00.000-07:00

In reading the political blogs, I came across a fascinating piece on the New York Time's political blog entitled Axelrod and Penn. The basic gist of the story is that the two democratic campaign's chief strategists have differing strategies of persuasion. The Obama campaign's strategy of persuasion centers around telling a story and inspiring hope. The Clinton campaign's strategy of persuasion centers around poll-tested keywords and niche marketing.

I've included pertinent excerpts below. FYI...Axelrod refers to David Axelrod--Mr. Obama's chief strategist. Penn refers to Mark Penn--Mrs. Clinton's chief strategist.

Mr. Axelrod’s essential insight — the idea that has made him successful where others might have failed — is that the modern campaign really isn’t about the policy arcana or the candidate’s record; it’s about a more visceral, more personal narrative. This is probably a big reason why Mr. Obama has, from the start, focused almost exclusively on broad themes of “hope” and “change,” drawing heavily on his own life story, rather than staking out any particularly new policy ground. In its tone and emphasis, Mr. Obama’s campaign reflects all the attributes of a truly great political ad: the stirring words, the beautiful pictures, the simple and elegant storyline of a ruined political system and the man whose moment has arrived.
...
Mr. Penn, on the other hand, is a pollster, and pollsters tend to look at campaigns as a series of dissectible data points that either attract voters or drive them away. Get a health-care plan and an economic plan that 70 percent of people say they view favorably. Pay attention to words that move the dial in focus groups, like “real solutions for America” or “ready to lead on day one.” Trust in poll-tested character traits like “strength” and “experience.” Mrs. Clinton’s relentless focus on pragmatism and specificity, as well as her willingness to shift to whatever slogan suits the moment, are not simply a result of her own personality but also of Mr. Penn’s strategic outlook, which values testable ideas and phrases over more sweeping imagery and thematics.

Why Axelrod's Strategy is More Effective

It is much newer and people like new. Poll-driven politics is as old as polls and yet America has seen only a small number of Presidents really effectively play the story-card (Kennedy and Reagan did). The story card forges an emotional connection while the poll-card forges an intellectual connection. Emotional connections are stronger than intellectual connections.
Hillary's poll strategy only reinforces the stereotype that she is a flop-flopper who will "say anything to get elected."
Stories are (almost) always more effective than ideas. Granted, I have no empirical study to prove this. Nonetheless, I believe Obama's candidacy is a type of proof in itself. (I realize this is kind of circular reasoning, but I still think Obama's candidacy should tell us something about the power of stories).
The poll-driven strategy is very short-term because polls fluctuate considerably. However, people resonate to stories for longer periods of time.

Clinton Email Analysis - "Monster"

2008-03-12T12:40:00.000-07:00

Recently, one of Senator Obama's senior foreign policy advisers made extremely disparaging remarks to a British journalist about Hillary Clinton (source) (original source).

"We f***** up in Ohio," [Obama foreign policy specialist Samantha Power] admitted. "In Ohio, they are obsessed and Hillary is going to town on it, because she knows Ohio's the only place they can win."

"She is a monster, too – that is off the record – she is stooping to anything," Ms Power said, hastily trying to withdraw her remark.

Ms Power said of the Clinton campaign: "Here, it looks like desperation. I hope it looks like desperation there, too."

"You just look at her and think, 'Ergh'. But if you are poor and she is telling you some story about how Obama is going to take your job away, maybe it will be more effective. The amount of deceit she has put forward is really unattractive."

After these remarks became public, the outcry became so loud that Power was forced to resign (source). Then, I received the following email from the Clinton campaign entitled Monster.

Dear John,

Just one day after Senator Obama promised to begin attacking Hillary, a senior Obama advisor has called her a "monster."

That's right -- a "monster."

At the same time, Senator Obama's aides have begun rehashing the old negative attacks of the 90's against Hillary.

This is not the politics of hope -- it's the usual attack style politics that we have seen time and time again.

And it must stop.

Only you can make that happen. A contribution now will show the Obama campaign that there is a price to this kind of attack politics.

Make a contribution to stop the Obama attacks.

You and I know Hillary is a fighter -- she has been fighting for what she believes in for 35 years, and as president, she's going to fight for us. So let's make sure she knows we have her back.

Thank you,

Terry McAuliffe
Chairman, Hillary Clinton for President

P.S. Calling Hillary a "monster" isn't the only attack we're seeing from the Obama campaign. We've seen deceptive radio attack ads and deceptive mailings in Texas and Ohio -- and now in Wyoming and Mississippi. Let's stop these attacks now -- make a contribution today.

Why This is Persuasive

The monster quote is exaggerated and given a life of its own. It is highlighted so as to become so offensive that it engenders anger in the reader. (Creating anger, then asking for money seems to me a common persuasive tactic in political emails).
The email makes it sound like everything depends upon the reader in order for the negative attacks to stop. ("Only you can make that happen")("Let's stop these attacks now -- make a contribution today."). (Hmm...How will donating money to the Clinton campaign to purchase attack ads against Obama stop Senator Obama from attacking--this reasoning makes no sense; won't this only increase the cycle of negative attacks? Won't this only make things worse?). But, this is politics and anything to scare up contributions is effective.
The email makes things personal--trying to engender a bond between the reader and Hillary. In addition, the email seems to play on a sense of duty to protect Hillary ("let's make sure she knows we have her back.")

"You and I know Hillary is a fighter -- she has been fighting for what she believes in for 35 years, and as president, she's going to fight for us. So let's make sure she knows we have her back."

Hillary Email Analysis

2008-03-12T12:27:00.000-07:00

On Saturday, I received an email from the Clinton campaign entitled Take a look. When I opened it, the following text appeared.

Dear John,

Your hard work and dedication mean so much to me, and I know you played a critical role in our wins on March 4.

I recorded a special message for you the night of March 4, and I hope you'll take a look.

Click here to watch.

We still have challenges ahead, but I know that we can win if we work together, just like we did in Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island.

I'm so proud to have your support. Thank you for everything you do.

Sincerely,

Hillary Rodham Clinton

Why This Email is Not Persuasive

It is poorly customized. "Your hard work and dedication mean so much to me." What hard work and dedication might she be referring to? I have worked hard on this blog, but I really don't think that put her over the top in Ohio.
It is really shallow and overdone. When I read, "I recorded a special message for you the night of March 4," I thought 'Oh, this should be interesting. I wonder if it is some private video message to donors [not that I gave anything, but the campaign does not appear to be that sophisticated] or a thank-you to supporters or an up-close tour of her campaign-headquarters.' Instead, it was a totally impersonal video of her victory remarks. I felt ripped off. I took the time to click on the link because I felt like it would be something cool. But, it was a shallow and meaningless "special message." If I were a donor, I would feel really disappointed.

Obama Email Analysis

2008-03-12T11:24:00.000-07:00

Last night, the Obama campaign sent out an email to its supporters entitled Victories and attacks. I included the email below and I will analyze it at the bottom.

John --

It's tough to think of two states more different than Wyoming and Mississippi.

But we won Wyoming on Saturday, and we just learned that we won Mississippi by a large margin tonight.

Between those two states, we picked up enough delegates to erase the gains by Senator Clinton last Tuesday and add to our substantial lead in earned delegates. And in doing so we showed the strength and breadth of this movement.

But just turn on the news and you'll see that Senator Clinton continues to run an expensive, negative campaign against us. Each day her campaign launches a new set of desperate attacks.

They're not just attacking me; they're attacking you.

Over the weekend, an aide to Senator Clinton attempted to diminish the overwhelming number of contests we've won by referring to places we've prevailed as "boutique" states and our supporters as the "latte-sipping crowd."

I'm not sure how those terms apply to Mississippi and Wyoming -- or Virginia, Iowa, Louisiana, or Idaho for that matter.

I know that our victories in all of these states demonstrate a rejection of this kind of petty, divisive campaigning.

But the fact remains that Senator Clinton's campaign will continue to attack us using the same old Washington playbook. And now that John McCain is the Republican nominee, we are forced to campaign on two fronts.

It's up to you to fight back. Please make a donation of $25 today:

https://donate.barackobama.com/math

Thank you,

Barack

Why This is Persuasive

It is personalized. John McCain's emails are not personalized.
It conveys Barack's campaign not as an ordinary campaign, but as a historic movement--something that engenders far more support. Consider, for example, the use of the phrase "this movement"
It links John McCain to Hillary Clinton.
It makes Hillary's attacks personal--not just against Barack, but (more importantly), against Barack's supporters. This sets up Barack's eventual plea for money. In other words, the supporters will be more likely to give if they feel they are being personally attacked and need to personally fight back.

"They're not just attacking me; they're attacking you"

Similarly, it takes Hillary's reasons for loosing recent contests and makes them attacks against voters.

"an aide to Senator Clinton attempted to diminish the overwhelming number of contests we've won by referring to places we've prevailed as "boutique" states and our supporters as the "latte-sipping crowd.""

There is a direct appeal at the end that engenders action.

"It's up to you to fight back."

Clinton and Media Photos

2008-03-10T23:28:00.000-07:00

I've been monitoring the media photos of Hillary Clinton and I recently noticed another batch of unflattering photos of her in the pool coverage.

"Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton reacts to a supporter during a campaign event at Scranton High School in Scranton, Pennsylvania, March 10, 2008. (Tim Shaffer/Reuters)" (source)

"US Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (R) gestures to Pennsylvania Governor Edward G. Rendell during a campaign event at the Forum in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania March 11, 2008. REUTERS/Tim Shaffer (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008" (source)

"US Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) speaks during a campaign event at the Forum in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania March 11, 2008. REUTERS/Tim Shaffer (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008" (source)

"Hillary Rodham Clinton shows off autographed boxing gloves from the boxer Kelly Pavlik while in Ohio. (Photo: Béatrice de Géa for The New York Times)" (source)

Although the picture below is not in and of itself unflattering--Mrs. Clinton looks perfectly posed--there is another problem: it fosters the image (pun intended) that Bill Clinton is in charge. It would be this image that would cause so much trouble later on.

"New York Senator and Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton listens as her husband, former US President Bill Clinton, speaks at a rally at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa on July 3." (source)

In the interest of fairness, I thought I would post a photo I saw in the news of John McCain, which is certainly not flattering.

"Republican nominee-in-waiting, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., accompanied by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, and others, greets the crowd during a campaign stop at Howley's Restaurant, Thursday, March 6, 2008 in West Palm Beach, Fla." (source)

Mind-Spinning Spin

2008-03-10T11:03:00.001-07:00

Recently, the Clinton campaign has been suggesting that Senator Obama would be an excellent vice president for Senator Clinton. However, there is something really bizarre about this, which I will discuss below.

CNN reported: "Even as Hillary Clinton's campaign attacked her rival, Barack Obama, for failing to 'deliver on his promises,' her husband, former President Bill Clinton said Saturday that a joint ticket pairing the two would be 'almost unstoppable. I know that she has always been open to it, because she believes that if you can unite the energy and the new people that he's brought in and the people in these vast swaths of small town and rural America that she's carried overwhelmingly, if you had those two things together she thinks it'd be hard to beat.'"

ABC News reported the same thing as did MSNBC.

Here is what I find so unpersuasive about this argument:

The Clinton camp is loosing by almost any measurement and, as a result, what right does it have to suggest that Senator Obama should serve as the VP for Senator Clinton? [This is yet another example of arrogance and the aura of inevitability on display.]

Senator Obama recently echoed this argument and said: "I don’t know how somebody who’s in second place can offer the vice presidency to someone who’s in first place" (source)

The Clinton camp has been arguing vehemently that Senator Obama is not experienced enough. Why would Clinton choose someone whom she claims has so limited foreign policy experience?

On a recent conference call, a reporter asked the Clinton campaign this exact question and received the following response: "We do not believe that Senator Obama has passed the commander in chief test. But there is a long way between now and [the DNC convention in] Denver.” (source) And, what experience as commander-in-chief might Senator Obama get between now and Denver since he is spending an overwhelmingly majority of his time on the campaign trail? It is this type of spin and shallow answer that turns off so many Americans to the political process.

Bill Clinton was the one who first put forth the argument. Shouldn't this come from Hillary?

Clinton Attacks Using Guilt by Association

2008-03-09T16:28:00.000-07:00

In lieu of Senator Obama's recent losses in Texas and Ohio, he appears to be going on the offensive. However, Senator Clinton has hit back hard--this time with guilt by association. In effect, Senator Clinton is trying to smear Senator Obama's attacks so as to make them less effective.

Consider the paramount example of this: Senator Clinton put out a press release entitled "After Texas and Ohio, Obama Campaign Mimics Ken Starr" (source).

I find it interesting that this seems to be a new pattern of the Clinton's campaign--attack Senator Obama with guilt by association. For example, shortly before the Ohio primary, Senator Clinton used guilt by association to attack Senator Obama--but, this time she used an even more despised republican. On Saturday February 23, 2008, Senator Clinton said, "Enough with the speeches and the big rallies and then using tactics right out of Karl Rove's playbook. This is wrong, and every Democrat should be outraged" (source).

Negative Attacks and Persuasion

2008-03-09T15:24:00.001-07:00

For a while now, I've said that I believe negative attacks work--with one major caution: they must be done properly. Today, I came across a very interesting poll that demonstrated what can happen when a candidate does negative attacks in a poor manner and becomes "the negative" candidate.

Around the close of November 2007 and the beginning of December 2007, Hillary Clinton stepped up her attacks of Barack Obama considerably (see articles below). However, at about the same time, an absolutely fascinating poll was released in the Des Moines Register. Consider the poll:

"Which Candidate is the most negative?"

Hillary Clinton 21%
John Edwards 9%
Dennis Kucinich 9%
Barack Obama 8%

(source: The Iowa Poll, Des Moines Register, 12/2/07) Note: I could not find the entirety of the survey on the Des Moines Register website to confirm with absolute certainty this information. Nonetheless, I believe it is accurate.

However, about this same time, Senator Clinton went on the attack with renewed vigor and intensity as Senator Obama pulled ahead. Consider the following press articles:

Losing Ground in Iowa, Clinton Assails Obama (Washington Post)
Hillary Clinton Attack on Barack Obama Comes After She Looses Iowa Lead (NY Daily News)
This Clinton Attack on Obama Could Boomerang (The Swamp)
Battered by Poll, Clinton Hits Back (NY Times blog)

In addition, Senator Clinton made the following vindictive and accusative statement at a press
conference: (watch at YouTube.com)

“But I have been for months on the receiving end of rather consistent attacks – well now the fun part starts,” Mrs. Clinton said, punctuating the word “fun.” “We’re into the last month, and we’re going to start drawing the contrasts, because I want every Iowans to have accurate information when they make their decisions.” (source)

Two Persuasive Lessons

Attacking out of ostensible desperation does not work--let's not forget how bad Iowa was for Hillary. She went from front-runner status and the consideration of skipping the state to an absolutely embarrassing 3rd place finish.
Attacking and sounding vindictive does not work.

NYT Attacks Obama

2008-03-09T14:13:00.000-07:00

After the New York Times published a scathing piece attacking John McCain entitled For McCain, Self-Confidence on Ethics Poses Its Own Risk (February 21, 2008; see story here), I knew that it would only be a matter of time until the Times published a story critical of Senator Barack Obama in an attempt to appear fair. The outburst of anger from many Americans over what they saw as a political cheap shop at Senator McCain would motivate the Times to work toward appearing fair and balanced. When I looked at the New York Times' website yesterday afternoon, I noticed the paper had just released that story--one of the first negative pieces on Senator Obama from the New York Times. Entitled Obama in Senate: Star Power, Minor Role, the story is not nearly as accusatory and inflammatory as the story that attacked Senator McCain. Nevertheless, the story does add to the perception that Obama lacks experience and, as Senator Clinton has argued, is about "speeches not solutions."

As I read through this piece, I was struck by the seeming inaccuracy of some of the charges made. This was somewhat confirmed when I visited Senator Obama's website. Consider the following examples:

"He was cautious — even on the Iraq war, which he had opposed as a Senate candidate. He voted against the withdrawal of troops and proposed legislation calling for a drawdown only after he was running for president and polls showed voters favoring it." [NY Times]

However, in a speech to the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations on November 22, 2005, Senator Obama said: "First and foremost, after the December 15 elections and during the course of next year, we need to focus our attention on how reduce the U.S. military footprint in Iraq." (source)

"While some senators spent hours in closed-door meetings over immigration reform in early 2007, he dropped in only occasionally, prompting complaints that he was something of a dilettante."

However, in a statement released on 5/26/2006, Senator McCain said, "I also want to thank Senators Brownback, Lieberman, Graham, Salazar, Martinez, Obama, and Dewine for their shared commitment to this issue, and working to ensure this bill moved successfully intact through the legislative process." (source)

What persuasive effect do these hit-job pieces have? I suppose only time will tell.

The Media and Photos of Hillary

2008-03-09T11:03:00.000-07:00

In an earlier post, I commented on the media's disposition to take and publish unflattering photos of Hillary Clinton--a trick is mastered with George W. Bush. As I looked at the recent media coverage of Hillary, I could not help but notice that this has continued. What persuasive effect this will have is really hard to measure, but it cannot help.

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., visits with 19-month-old Reagan Watson and her mother, Tanya Watson, second from left, as Clinton campaigns at Laramie County Community College in Cheyenne, Wyo., Friday, March 7, 2008. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)" (source).

"Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., acknowledges supporters during a rally before the Wyoming caucus in Casper, Wyo., late Friday, March 7, 2008. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)" (source).

"US Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton smiles as she takes the stage at a campaign event in Casper, Wyoming on March 07. Clinton and Barack Obama face off in the western state of Wyoming as the campaign took a nasty turn following the resignation of a key Obama foreign policy aide. (AFP/Robyn Beck)" (source)

To Smear or Not to Smear, That is the Question

2008-03-09T09:21:00.000-07:00

As I analyzed the editorial pages of the major newspapers and watched the political pundits, I could not help but notice a major division amongst so-called experts. Reflecting on the advice given to Senator Obama after his losses in Texas and Ohio, it appears to me that he is at a significant crossroad in his campaign: will he turn "negative" and attack Senator Clinton with the intensity that she has (apparently successfully) attacked him? I am reminded of Hamlet's famous words, which could be adapted:

To smear, or not to smear: that is the question:
Whether 'tis nobler in the campaign to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous attacks,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?

Let me begin this section of the blog post by giving you an idea about how divided pundits are. In a March 9 op-ed in the New York Times, Maureen Dowd wrote:

After losing Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and his mojo, and getting whipsawed around by Hillary and his own chuckleheaded coterie of advisers, he will now have to come to grips with something he has always skittered away from: You can’t be elected president unless you prove you’re tough.

However, in a March 8 op-ed in the New York Times, David Brooks wrote:

Barack Obama had a theory. It was that the voters are tired of the partisan paralysis of the past 20 years. The theory was that if Obama could inspire a grass-roots movement with a new kind of leadership, he could ride it to the White House and end gridlock in Washington.
...
Now, the Obama campaign is facing another test. There are a few ways to interpret the losses in Texas and Ohio. One is demographic. He didn’t carry the groups he often has trouble with — white women, Latinos, the less educated. The other is tactical. Clinton attacked him, and the attacks worked.
The consultants, needless to say, gravitate toward the tactical interpretation. And once again the cry has gone up for Obama to get tough. This advice gets wrapped in metaphors. Obama has to start “throwing punches” or “taking the gloves off.”
Beneath the euphemisms, what the advice really means is that Obama has to start accusing Clinton of things.
This time, Obama, whose competitive juices are flowing, has apparently accepted the advice. The Obama campaign is now making a big issue of Hillary Clinton’s tax returns and dropping hints about donations to President Clinton’s library and her secret White House papers. It’s willing to launch an ethics assault. “If Senator Clinton wants to take the debate to various places, we’ll join that debate,” the Obama strategist David Axelrod told reporters the other day.
...
In short, a candidate should never betray the core theory of his campaign, or head down a road that leads to that betrayal. Barack Obama doesn’t have an impressive record of experience or a unique policy profile. New politics is all he’s got. He loses that, and he loses everything. Every day that he looks conventional is a bad day for him.
Besides, the real softness of the campaign is not that Obama is a wimp. It’s that he has never explained how this new politics would actually produce bread-and-butter benefits to people in places like Youngstown and Altoona.
If he can’t explain that, he’s going to lose at some point anyway.

So, what strategy would be more persuasive? Personally, I feel that Brooks' argument is far more persuasive. Although I have previously argued that attack are effective--a position I still hold--Barack Obama cannot damage his most valuable asset, which is his claim that he will bring a new kind of politics to America. Nonetheless, I do not believe that this is an either/or decision. By using surrogates, the Obama campaign can effectively cast doubt on Senator Clinton. Moreover, Senator Obama is still strongly in the lead, so why dirty himself attacking someone who will eventually be defeated anyway? Brooks hit the nail on the head when he said, "In short, a candidate should never betray the core theory of his campaign, or head down a road that leads to that betrayal. Barack Obama doesn’t have an impressive record of experience or a unique policy profile. New politics is all he’s got. He loses that, and he loses everything."

Delegates vs. Momentum

2008-03-09T07:49:00.000-07:00

As I looked at Barack Obama's website this morning, I noticed a headline reading "Obama Wins Wyoming, Pads Delegate Lead" (source). Although the Obama campaign did not write the entirety of this story, I was nonetheless struck by the emphasis on momentum in this election.

For example, the title of the article read "Pads Delegate Lead." However, according to an AP story, "Obama won seven delegates and Clinton won five." Given that each candidate has around 1500 delegates, 2 delegates represents about 0.133% of each candidate's delegate count. Yet, you would never know this from the campaign's PR offensive.

Similarly, last Tuesday, the Clinton spin machine succeeded in convincing the American people that Clinton scored a major victory. However, Clinton and Obama split the delegates in Texas, Clinton gained 9 in Ohio, Clinton gained 4 in Rhode Island, and Obama gained 3 in Vermont (source). This means that Clinton gained 10 delegates overall--hardly a large number considering both candidates now stand at about 1500.

Obama and the Use of Stories

2008-03-08T13:38:00.000-08:00

In a previous post, I remark on Hillary Clinton's recent decision to begin using vignettes in her speeches to provide a powerful personal emotional appeal to voters. In that post, I pointed out that Senator Obama has been using this persuasive technique for a while.

In Barack's remarks on January 3, after winning the Iowa cacus, he used the following personal stories:

Hope is what I saw in the eyes of the young woman in Cedar Rapids who works the night shift after a full day of college and still can't afford health care for a sister who's ill. A young woman who still believes that this country will give her the chance to live out her dreams.

Hope is what I heard in the voice of the New Hampshire woman who told me that she hasn't been able to breathe since her nephew left for Iraq. Who still goes to bed each night praying for his safe return.

In Barack's remarks on January 26, after winning the South Carolina primary, he used the following personal stories:

Theirs are the stories and voices we carry on from South Carolina. The mother who can't get Medicaid to cover all the needs of her sick child. She needs us to pass a health care plan that cuts costs and makes health care available and affordable for every single American. That's what she's looking for.
The teacher who works another shift at Dunkin' Donuts after school just to make ends meet, she needs us to reform our education system so that she gets better pay and more support and her students get the resources that they need to achieve their dreams.
The Maytag worker who's now competing with his own teenager for a $7 an hour job at the local Wal-Mart, because the factory he gave his life to shut its doors, he needs us to stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship our jobs overseas and start putting them in the pockets of working Americans who deserve it and put them in the pockets of struggling homeowners who are having a tough time and looking after seniors who should retire with dignity and respect.
That woman who told me that she hasn't been able to breathe since the day her nephew left for Iraq or the soldier who doesn't know his child because he's on his third or fourth or even fifth tour of duty, they need us to come together and put an end to a war that should have never been authorized and should have never been waged.
But here is what I know. I know that when people say we can't overcome all the big money and influence in Washington, I think of that elderly woman who sent me a contribution the other day, an envelope that had a money order for $3.01 along with a verse of scripture tucked inside the envelope. So don't tell us change isn't possible. That woman knows change is possible.
When I hear the cynical talk that blacks and whites and Latinos can't join together and work together, I'm reminded of the Latino brothers and sisters I organized with and stood with and fought with side by side for jobs and justice on the streets of Chicago. So don't tell us change can't happen.
When I hear that we'll never overcome the racial divide in our politics, I think about that Republican woman who used to work for Strom Thurmond, who is now devoted to educating inner city-children and who went out into the streets of South Carolina and knocked on doors for this campaign. Don't tell me we can't change.

Clinton and the Use of Stories

2008-03-08T13:23:00.001-08:00

As I watched Hillary Clinton's victory remarks in Ohio last Tuesday evening, I was struck by the fact that she has finally begun telling short stories in her speeches. Senator Obama has been doing this and it is high time that Hillary employed the persuasive power of a vignette.

In Hillary's January 3, 2008 remarks after finishing 3rd in Iowa, Hillary failed to mention any sort of personal story (either from her own life or from the life of a supporter).

In Hillary's January 8, 2008 remarks after winning New Hampshire, Hillary failed to mention any sort of personal story (either from her own life or from the life of a supporter).

In Hillary's February 5, 2008 remarks after Super Tuesday, Hillary failed to mention any sort of personal story (either from her own life or from the life of a supporter).

However, in Hillary's March 4, 2008 remarks after winning Texas and Ohio, Hillary finally begun using personal stories:

For more than a year, I’ve been listening to the voices of people across our country. The single mom who told me she works two jobs; neither provides health care for her kids. She just can't work any harder. The little girl who asked how I helped people without homes - turns out her family was about to lose their own. The young man in a Marine Corps shirt who said he waited months for medical care. He said to me, "take care of my buddies, a lot of them are still over there. And then, will you please help take care of me?"
I want to end by sharing with you a message that I got late last month from someone who didn't have much money to spare, but sent me $10 for my campaign and sent an e-mail in which she wrote: "My two daughters are two and four, and we chant and cheer for you at every speech we see. I want them to know anything is possible." Tonight I say to them, keep on watching. Together, we're going to make history. To those little girls, I say this is America, and we do believe you can be anything you want to be, and we want our sons and our daughters to dream big. I have big dreams for America’s future. The question is not whether we can fulfill those dreams, it's whether we will. And here's our answer: yes, we will.

Persuasive Ad Analysis - Clinton "Partner"

2008-03-07T18:14:00.000-08:00

On March 3, Hillary Clinton launched an economic ad targeting Ohio.

View the ad here at YouTube.con

Below is the transcript of the ad (source).

TITLE: "Partner"

LENGTH: 30 seconds

AIRING: Ohio

SCRIPT: Clinton: "I have talked with people from Cincinnati to Dayton to Parma."

Man 1: "The economy in this part of the state is terrible."

Man 2: "We need a leader who cares about the people."

Clinton: "It's time that the American worker had a partner in the White House."

Woman 1: "She's going to bring jobs back here to Ohio."

Man 3: "And fight for working families here in the United States of America."

Man 1: "Hillary Clinton can turn this country around."

Clinton: "The wealthy and the well-connected have had a president. It's time the middle class had a president, who will stand up for you."

Clinton: "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this message."

Why This Ad is Persuasive?

It is on Topic

The ad directly addresses Ohio's struggling economy, which was the number one issue in Ohio (see analysis section here). No political ad can be effective, regardless of how well scripted and emotionally appealing, if it does not strike on a point of similarity with viewers.

It Features Target Voters

Unlike Hillary's Texas ads, which focused on national security and/or featured Hispanics, this ad features working class white individuals. This was precisely the audience that Hillary disparately needed to reach in order to win. Consider the following screen shots, which show the individuals who spoke in the ad.

Features "Everyday" People
The Background Reinforces the Message

For example, the first "everyday" person says, "the economy in this part of the state is terrible." The background is, not coincidently, cloudy and rainy.

How the Ad Could Have Been More Persuasive

At the beginning, there is a screen shot of a man in a suit. This is not the target audience and does not fit well with the rest of the individuals featured in the ad.
Instead of wearing an expensive suit, Hillary should be shown in working class clothing to amplify the point that she understands and relates to the people.
Hillary's message here does not fit well with the fact that she loaned her campaign $5 million dollars, she will not release her tax returns, and her daughter works at a New York City hedge fund--a far cry from the working class jobs of Ohio.

Hillary vs. Barack Google Ads

2008-03-07T17:58:00.001-08:00

As I was researching possible blog entries, I noticed an interesting aspect of the Clinton campaign's marketing strategy--no, I'm not talking about the use of online advertising, which is widespread. I was struck by the fact that Senator Clinton's official campaign ad on Google begins by saying "Help Make History!" while Senator Obama's official campaign ad on Google begins by saying "Help elect Barack Obama." What struck me the most is that Senator Clinton's campaign is playing to the "make history" argument while Senator Obama's campaign is not--and, of course, Senator Obama's campaign could as Senator Obama would be the first black President. (For what its worth, Senator McCain could do the same thing as he would be the oldest president ever, if elected). See below:

I believe that the "help make history" argument is rather weak in this election. I believe that people tend to vote for the candidate they: (a) like the most and (b) share general policy positions with. Even if a voter was somewhat drawn to the "make history" argument, as I pointed out earlier, whether you vote for McCain, Clinton, or Obama, you will make history.

Perhaps this is because I am a white man and every President and Vice-President in American history has been a white man. Nevertheless, I just cannot see people rallying around someone simply in order to make history. I admit that I have no evidence to back this up and the Clinton camp may have a poll that validates its strategy, but I thought I would offer this pithy comment for whatever it is worth.

Clinton and Third Person Speech

2008-03-07T17:50:00.000-08:00

As I watched Hillary Clinton's victory speech on Tuesday night, I was struck by how often she uses the third person to speak to Americans. Personally, I feel that using "we" -- which is what Senator Obama often does -- would be more effective. It is more personal, communal, and addresses the listener directly. Consider the following (transcript):

"More and more people have joined this campaign and millions of Americans haven't spoken yet. In states like Pennsylvania and so many others people are watching this historic campaign, and they want their turn to help make history. They want their voices to count. And they should. They should be heard."
"Americans don't need more promises. They’ve heard plenty of speeches. They deserve solutions and they deserve them now."

Persuasive Ad Analysis - Clinton "True"

2008-03-07T16:51:00.000-08:00

On March 3, just before the crucial March 4 primaries that proved pivotal in the presidential race, Hillary Clinton responded to Barack Obama's 3am phone ad, which itself was a response to Hillary Clinton's 3am phone ad (if you're confused, don't worry, just see the ad analysis posts earlier ["Ringing" and "Children"] and you will catch on).

The text of the ad is as follows (view ad here at YouTube.com):

"[Announcer] Barack Obama says he has the judgment to be president. But as chairman of an oversight committee charged with the force fighting al-Qaida in Afghanistan, he was too busy running for president to hold even one hearing.

I became chairman of this committee at the beginning of this campaign, at the beginning of 207, so it is true that we have not had oversight hearings on Afghanistan.

[Announcer] Hillary Clinton will never be too busy to defend our national security, bringing our troops home from Iraq and pursuing al-Qaeda in Afghanistan" (source; source)

Why This Ad is Persuasive?

It uses Obama's own words and footage from his own ad. This ads credibility to the claim Senator Clinton is trying to make, especially in this nasty ad battle.
It provides specific evidence to back up its claims (in Clinton's previous "Children" ad, she asserted Obama lacked experience, but she failed to provide any evidence)

How to Make More Persuasive?

Briefly discuss the deterioration of conditions that occurred in Afghanistan "under Barack's watch."
Discuss Hillary's important role on the Senate Armed Services Committee

Presidential Aura, Persuasion, and Endorsement

2008-03-07T09:45:00.000-08:00

Wednesday, John McCain received the endorsement of President Bush. Many aspects of this ceremony really struck me from a persuasion perspective.

1.) The Arrival
I was struck by the fact that Senator McCain arrived at the North Portico and was formally greeted by President Bush. This type of reception is typically reserved for world leaders. In addition, I found considerable symbolism in the image of Bush and McCain walking into the White House together. Typically, during the presidential inauguration, the new president comes to this entrance and is greeted by the outgoing president. Senator McCain could have easily came in the entrance that most Senators and staff would use in the basement of the West Wing (West Executive Drive, between the EEOB and west side of the West Wing). However, this is not easily visible to the press nor does it look presidential.

"President Bush greets Republican presidential nominee-in-waiting, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and his wife Cindy, Wednesday, March 5, 2008, as they arrived to have lunch with the president at the White House in Washington." (source)

2.) The "Endorsement"
I was really struck by the fact that Senator McCain and president Bush appeared in the Rose Garden (instead of the Oval Office) and the setup in the Rose Garden seemed un-presidential. There was no podium with the presidential seal or row of flags behind them.

"President George W. Bush and Arizona Senator John McCain stand in front of the media in the Rose Garden Wednesday, March 5, 2008. The President welcomed Senator McCain and his wife, Cindy, and offered his endorsement by saying, "... He's going to be the President who will bring determination to defeat an enemy, and a heart big enough to love those who hurt." White House photo by Eric Draper" (source).

"President Bush gestures while speaking in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, March 5, 2008, where he endorsed Republican nominee-in-waiting, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.(AP Photo/Ron Edmonds)" (source).

White House Aura

2008-03-04T21:08:00.000-08:00

The New York Times is reporting the following:

President Bush is to greet Mr. McCain and his wife, Cindy, at the White House at noon on Wednesday. They’re scheduled to lunch together in a private dining room and then to appear together in the Rose Garden at 1:15. Plan your day accordingly! (source)

There is no doubt that this is designed to give the presidential aura to John McCain. The Rose Garden is a very presidential background. However, I wonder whether it would not be more prudent to have the joint appearance in the Oval Office. In a race that John McCain desperately needs to be about national security, the Oval Office would be a better backdrop. Besides, the private dinning room is basically adjacent to the Oval Office (see below).

(source) This photo is from the Oval Office. In the pink room is the president's study and in the way background with the photo is the private dinning room.

Where's Bill?

2008-03-04T20:50:00.000-08:00

In watching Hillary Clinton's speech tonight, I could not help but wonder "where's Bill Clinton?" I think Hillary finally figured out that Bill has been a significant distraction and overshadowing figure in her campaign. Notice the photo below that it is Hillary and Chelsea, along with the governor of Ohio, that are on stage--no Bill.

"US Democratic presidential candidate Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and her daughter Chelsea (L) greet supporters at her Ohio and Texas primary election night rally in Columbus, Ohio March 4, 2008. REUTERS/ Shannon Stapleton (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008" (source).

Persuasion and Race

2008-03-04T20:39:00.000-08:00

In a recent Hillary Clinton ad, the Clinton campaign took video from a recent debate. However, some commentators are wondering whether the Clinton campaign deliberately darkened Senator Obama's face. In the left part of the photo below, you see Senator Obama's photo from the debate (unedited footage). On the right, you see Senator Obama's photo from the debate used in the ad (edited footage).

(source)
For more on this, see:
Daily Kos

Similarity: Hillary Adapts Accent

2008-03-02T09:11:00.000-08:00

It is well known that people are more persuaded by individuals who are more like them. It should not come as a surprise then that Hillary Clinton, speaking in Texas, adapted her accent to sound southern. At a recent rally in Dallas, TX, Hillary said the following:

“Now, you know, as President Bush is leavin’ and comin’ home, waiting in that Oval Office are gonna be a lot of problems. So, the next president is gonna have to get in there and clean house” (source, emphasis added)

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Obama "Ringing"

2008-03-01T20:01:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, Hillary Clinton unleashed a new attack ad, calling into question Barack Obama's preparedness to be commander-in-chief (source; source; source; source; source). Barack Obama responded almost immediately with an ad of his own. (view original Clinton ad and Obama response ad).

Here is the transcript of the Obama ad [source: CNN and personal transcript]:

"It’s 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep, but there’s a phone ringing in the White House. Something’s happening in the world. When that call gets answered, shouldn’t the president be the one – the only one – who had judgment and courage to oppose the Iraq war from the start. Who understood the real threat to America was al-Qaeda, in Afghanistan, not Iraq. Who led the effort to secure loose nuclear weapons around the globe. In a dangerous world, it’s judgment that matters"

Before discussing the persuasive elements in this ad, I want to point out something that struck me: the similarity of the ads. In fact, while researching for this entry, I had the ads playing in the background and at times, I could not tell the difference between the ads. I am quite certain that some of the footage from Clinton ad was copied and used in the Obama ad.

Similarity Between Ads

Text

Obama: "It’s 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep, but there’s a phone ringing in the White House"
Clinton: "It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep, but there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing."

Images

(Image from Clinton Ad)

(Image from Obama Ad)

(Image from Clinton ad)

(Image from Obama Ad)

Why Ad is Persuasive

The subject of the debate is changed from experience to judgment ("In a dangerous world, it’s judgment that matters") and the Iraq War is central.
The ad quotes from outside sources to provide an aura of authority whereas the Clinton ad simply makes claims and provides no substantiation
The ad shows the White House lit up at night, giving the aura of the White House working at night. In contrast, Clinton's ad offers no such image.
The ad directly attacks Senator Clinton's support of the Iraq War
The ad was released so quickly that it prevented public opinion from forming in the mind of the electorate

Persuasive Ad Analysis: Hillary Clinton "Children"

2008-02-29T19:39:00.000-08:00

In a move that appears to be out of the Bush-Cheney playbook, Hillary Clinton recently launched an ad entitled "Children."

The transcript follows (source; view ad here at YouTube.com):

"[Announcer:] It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep, But there's a phone in the White House and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call. Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military -- someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3 a.m. and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?
[Clinton:] I'm Hillary Clinton and I approve this message."

Read news coverage on this ad: Washington Post; WSJ; Fox News; Boston Globe;

Why This Ad is Persuasive

The ad evokes the strongest possible emotional connection--parent and child ("it's 3am and your children are safe")
The ad plays on Hillary's perception of experience and Obama's inexperience. ("Whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military -- someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world")
The ad changes the subject of the debate from change [where Hillary cannot compete with Obama] to national security.
The ad makes a direct call action ("Your vote will decide who answers that call.")

Why This Ad is Not Persuasive

How is Hillary "tested and ready to lead?" There are no specifics and the viewer can only wonder whether Hillary beat Bill to the phone during the Clinton administration and picked up the phone instead of President Clinton.
Hillary voted for the Iraq war--something most democrats believe was not a sign of experience

Other Comments

This ad bears some similarity to Walter Mondale's 1984 ad using the "Red Phone"

"The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issues of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing, and that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale." (source) View ad here [it is about 10 seconds in the video; there is a short introduction from some UK website].

This ad bears minor similarity to the famous "Daisy" ad (view here).

Presidential Persuasion

2008-02-29T10:09:00.001-08:00

For a while, President Bush promised not to be the "pundit-in-chief" (source). However, at a news conference this Thursday, he entered into the waters of political punditry, attempting to persuade voters.

In a clear prelude to the republican persuasive strategy, Bush challenged Obama on his national security credentials and his understanding of the threat posed by terrorism.

The following is the transcript of the President's remarks at the press conference yesterday.

Q Mr. President, do you believe if we have the kind of rapid pull-out from Iraq that Democrats are talking about, that we would be at greater risk of a terrorist attack here at home? And when Senator Obama was asked a similar question, he said, "If al Qaeda is forming a base in Iraq, then we will have to act in a way that secures the American homeland and our interests abroad." So I'm wondering if --
THE PRESIDENT: That's an interesting comment. If al Qaeda is securing a al Qaeda base -- yes, well, that's exactly what they've been trying to do for the past four years. That's their stated intention, was to create enough chaos and disorder to establish a base from which to either launch attacks or spread a caliphate. And the intent of the surge was to send more Marines into the area that -- where they had proclaimed their desire to set up a base. That was Anbar province. And so, yes, that's one of the challenges we face, is denying al Qaeda a safe haven anywhere. And their intentions -- that's what they said, that they would like to have a base or safe haven in Anbar province.

Points

The most cogent line of republican attack will almost certainly be on national security. This is the main strength of John McCain and a serious weakness of Barack Obama.
The president will enter into the debate in coming months. Although he is unpopular, when he speaks forcefully concerning national security, I believe he is still quite effective at persuading conservatives and independents.
The aura of the presidency is an incredible asset. By holding a news conference from the West Wing press briefing room, the level of persuasiveness is increased.

Persuading the Republican Base

2008-02-27T15:28:00.000-08:00

Yesterday, at a rally in Ohio, talk-radio personality Bill Cunningham spoke to McCain supporters before McCain took the stage. Since McCain has had so much trouble getting the base to be energized, perhaps the talk-radio host could do better. We'll, Cunningham did really get the base motivated, but he angered the independent minded McCain. So, what did Cunningham say to persuade the base to get motivated?

Consider the following inflammatory comments, which are receiving an incredible amount of media attention. (I could not find an entire transcript of the remarks. So, I recommend you view them here). Here is a partial transcript:(source; source; source).

Now we have a hack, Chicago-style Daley politician who is picturing himself as change. When he gets done with you, all you're going to have in your pocket is change... At some point in the near future the media, the stooges from the New York Times, CBS (The Clinton Broadcasting System), NBC (The Nobody But Clinton Network), The All Bill Clinton Channel (ABC), and the Clinton News Network at some point is going to peel the bark off Barack Hussein Obama. That day will come. Then you'll know the truth about his business dealings with Rezko, when he got sweetheart deals in Chicago and the illegal loans that he received. At some point the media will quit taking sides in this thing and maybe start covering Barack Hussein Obama.

John McCain came out and strongly condemned these comments.

"I take responsibility. I repudiate what he said. I will not tolerate anyone that denigrates either Senator Clinton or Senator Obama." (source)

However, this only infuriated Cunningham, who lashed out at McCain (source; source; source). Cunningham said:

He's not my candidate. He is not a conservative. I'm a conservative Reagan Republican, and John McCain embarrassed himself. The local Republican Party, Alan Colmes, has received dozens — dozens of calls complaining about John Juan Pablo McCain. They're getting complaint calls. (source)

The persuasive lesson: the far-right is motivated by this type of inflammatory commentary. If you are in doubt, simply consider the number of right-wing talk show hosts that spew this stuff out daily (e.g., Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, Bill O'Riley, Michael Medved, Ann Coulter, Laura Ingraham).

Media Coverage of Hillary

2008-02-26T20:00:00.001-08:00

There has been a tremendous amount of talk about Hillary Clinton receiving unfair media coverage (source; source; source; source). In fact, at tonight's debate, Hillary herself made remarks to this end:

Well, can I just point out that in the last several debates, I seem to get the first question all the time. And I don't mind. I -- you know, I'll be happy to field them, but I do find it curious, and if anybody saw "Saturday Night Live," you know, maybe we should ask Barack if he's comfortable and needs another pillow. (Laughter, boos.) I just find it kind of curious that I keep getting the first question on all of these issues. But I'm happy to answer it. (transcript) (other; other)

As an aside, I found it interesting that Obama subtly took aim at Hillary for these types of comments which some interpret as being a cry-baby. He said, "And, you know, we haven't whined about [the tough campaign] because I understand that's the nature of these campaigns, but to suggest somehow that our mailing is somehow different from the kinds of approaches that Senator Clinton has taken throughout this campaign I think is simply not accurate." (transcript)

Returning to the media bias question, I thought I would see whether the Reuters photo feed from tonight's debate provided numerous pictures of Clinton that did not appear presidential. Sure enough, there was a litany of pictures that made Clinton appear angry etc. Consider the following:

"US Democratic presidential candidates Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) (R) listens to moderator Tim Russert (L) as she and Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) squared off in the last debate before the Ohio primary in Cleveland, Ohio, February 26, 2008. REUTERS/Matt Sullivan (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)"(source)

"US Democratic presidential candidates Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) square off in the last debate before the Ohio primary in Cleveland, Ohio February 26, 2008. REUTERS/Matt Sullivan (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)" (source)

"US Democratic presidential candidates Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) and Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) square off in the last debate before the Ohio primary in Cleveland, Ohio, February 26, 2008. REUTERS/Matt Sullivan (UNITED STATES) US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 2008(USA)" (source)

Debate Analysis

2008-02-26T19:50:00.000-08:00

In analyzing the just concluded democratic debate, I wanted to make a number of points on the persuasive strategies and positions that the candidates took. Obviously, this debate was "do-or-die" for Hillary Clinton, who faces the very real prospect of elimination in the March 4th primaries. Please feel free to read a transcript of the debate here.

Clinton Attacks

Clinton's first statement was: "in the last several days, some of those differences in tactics and the choices that Senator Obama's campaign has made regarding flyers and mailers and other information that has been put out about my health care plan and my position on NAFTA have been very disturbing to me."
Clinton also said: "So we should have a good debate that uses accurate information, not false, misleading, and discredited information, especially on something as important as whether or not we will achieve quality, affordable health care for everyone. That's my goal. That's what I'm fighting for, and I'm going to stand up for that."
MSNBC Reported: "Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois came under a full-out assault Tuesday night from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in their last debate before crucial primaries in Ohio and Texas that could make or break Clinton’s campaign." (source)

Obama Portrays Clinton As Poor Looser

Senator Obama said: "But I think it's very important to understand the context of this, and that is that Senator Clinton has -- her campaign, at least -- has constantly sent out negative attacks on us, e-mail, robocalls, flyers, television ads, radio calls. And, you know, we haven't whined about it because I understand that's the nature of these campaigns, but to suggest somehow that our mailing is somehow different from the kinds of approaches that Senator Clinton has taken throughout this campaign I think is simply not accurate." (emphasis added).

Obama Criticizes Clinton on Judgment

Obama said: "Senator Clinton often says that she is ready on day one, but in fact she was ready to give in to George Bush on day one on this critical issue [of invading Iraq]. So the same person that she criticizes for having terrible judgment, and we can't afford to have another one of those, in fact she facilitated and enabled this individual to make a decision that has been strategically damaging to the United States of America."

Faith and Cultural-Based Smear Already Under Way

2008-02-25T19:55:00.000-08:00

In a post a few weeks ago, I predicted that Barack Obama would face smear attacks based upon his perceived association with Islam (e.g., his middle name is Hussein, etc.). In that article, I predicted that these attacks would come from Republicans desperate to persuade the general electorate. Well, I should not have expected such kindness from the Clinton campaign that it would pass over the opportunity to persuade voters via a smear effort. Today, the faith-bases smear and cultural fear-mongering sunk to a new level.
On the Drudge Report website, a photo of Obama in a Muslim-looking dress appeared thanks to the handiwork of anonymous sources in the Clinton campaign (source).

The Obama campaign lambasted the Clinton campaign over the release of this photo:

"On the very day that Senator Clinton is giving a speech about restoring respect for America in the world, her campaign has engaged in the most shameful, offensive fear-mongering we've seen from either party in this election" (source).

In a sign of the tough politics to come, Clinton campaign chief Maggie Williams shot back:

Enough.

If Barack Obama's campaign wants to suggest that a photo of him wearing traditional Somali clothing is divisive, they should be ashamed. Hillary Clinton has worn the traditional clothing of countries she has visited and had those photos published widely.

This is nothing more than an obvious and transparent attempt to distract from the serious issues confronting our country today and to attempt to create the very divisions they claim to decry.

We will not be distracted.

Recap of Clinton's New Level of Attacks:

Called Obama's attacks "shameful" (see previous post)
Called Obama's tactics like those of "Karl Rove" (see previous post)
Compared Mr. Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience to that of the candidate George W. Bush in 2000. (source)
Clinton campaign is lashing out at the press (source).

Hillary Unloads Attacks

2008-02-25T12:42:00.000-08:00

In the past few days, Hillary Clinton has clearly embarked on a new level of attacks. Clearly, she has come to the realization that her former strategy of light and intermittent attacks is not working. So, she is now attacking full-force.

On Saturday, Clinton attacked Obama on a mailing he put out. Although I could not find the entire transcript of Senator Clinton's remarks, I was able to piece together a rather complete transcript (source; source):

I have to express my deep disappointment — he is continuing to send false and discredited mailings with information that is not true to the voters of Ohio...Enough with the speeches and the big rallies and then using tactics that are right out of Karl Rove’s play book. This is wrong and every Democrat should be outraged...So shame on you Barack Obama. It is time you ran a campaign consistent with your messages in public. That’s what I expect from you. Meet me in Ohio and let’s have a debate about your tactics and your behavior in this campaign.

On Tuesday, Hillary Clinton mocked Obama (source [with video]; source):

Now I could stand up here and say: Let's get everybody together. Let's get unified. The skies will open. The lights will come down. And you know the celestial choirs will be singing. And everyone we know will do the right thing. And the world will be perfect... Maybe I’ve just lived a little long, but I have no illusions about how hard this is going to be. You are not going to wave a magic wand to make special interests disappear ... We are not going to wave a magic wand and have the special interests disappear.

Will these attacks work? I don't think so. Hillary looks desperate and spiteful. But, only time will tell whether these attacks were successful.

John McCain Creating a Common Enemy

2008-02-23T19:09:00.000-08:00

When I woke up Thursday morning, I was shocked to see cable TV outlets reporting that the New York Times had a front-page story "documenting" John McCain's extramarital affair and influence peddling relationship with a Washington lobbyist (see NYT story here).

However, as the day went on and I learned more, I began to notice how John McCain had subtly turned the story into an opportunity for conservatives to hate the New York Times (something they like to do). Conservatives, including those who have strongly criticized McCain, began coming to McCain's defense and attacking the New York Times (source; source; source; source; source; source).

Then, I received the following email from John McCain's campaign manager (who, ironically, happens to be a lobbyist--but the letter never said this, of course [source]).

Notice how John McCain is creating a common enemy in the New York Times.

So, how did this turn out?

McCain had his best 24 hour online fundraising ever on Friday--the day after the story ran. (NY Times).
From CNN on Friday night at 8pm EST: "Even Rush Limbaugh is defending McCain against 'The Times' story about McCain and lobbyists. And a source tells CNN's John King that, in the past 24 hours, McCain's campaign has raised a startling $2 million after sending out an e-mail saying: We need money to help defend ourselves against these attacks. Well, joining me now from Washington is Alfred Regnery. He is the publisher of "The American Spectator." He has not endorsed a candidate yet, but he has contributed to McCain. He has also written "Upstream: The Ascendance of American Conservatism." And from Baton Rouge, Louisiana, for us tonight, Tony Perkins. He is president of the Family Research Council and author of "Personal Faith, Public Policy." (transcript)